Results for 'forecasts'
Found 522 results.
Mapping a Way Forward for Localized Climate Information in India
The Indian state of Bihar lies in the eastern area of the country, bordering Nepal. The region was once a powerhouse of culture and education, and Buddhism has its roots in the area. The Ganges River runs straight across this mostly flat, fertile state, where nearly three-quarters of its residents work in agriculture. But despite […]
2018 November Quick Look
El Niño-level SSTs were observed in the October average, and the subsurface waters also continued to be markedly warmer than average. However, the atmospheric variables showed mainly ENSO-neutral patterns. Only lower-level wind anomalies averaged weakly westerly in the eastern Pacific–a suggestion of El Niño. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for an 80% chance of El Niño prevailing during winter, and a 55-60% chance of continuing into spring 2019. An El Niño watch is in effect. New forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively show continuing El Niño-level SSTs, most likely weak to moderate in strength, continuing through spring.
October Climate Briefing: El Niño Odds Greater than 85%
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New Sea-surface temperatures are warming up in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean that defines El Niño events (called Niño3.4 – see map below). Whether they stay that way will determine if an El Niño event […]
2018 October Quick Look
While ENSO-neutral conditions prevailed in September, signs of El Niño increased in early October 2018 as east-central tropical Pacific SSTs warmed to weak El Niño levels. Also, low level winds showed westerly anomalies in most of the last three weeks. The subsurface water temperature continued to be above-average, and increased further recently. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for a 70-75% chance of El Niño development during October/November, continuing through winter 2018-19. An El Niño watch is in effect. New forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively favor imminent El Niño development, most likely weak to moderate strength, continuing through winter.
After Ten Years of Index Insurance, What’s Next?
Despite an overabundance of food in some parts of the world, about 815 million people suffered from chronic undernourishment in 2016. Poor nutrition leads to nearly half of deaths in children under the age of five. Many of those who are hungry are farmers and their families. Our food systems clearly aren’t working as well […]
September Climate Briefing: El Niño Waiting Game Continues
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New After months of neutral ENSO conditions and forecasts of an upcoming El Niño event, September has brought yet another month of the same. Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean region that defines El […]
New Book: Climate Information for Public Health Action
A newly published book called Climate Information for Public Health Action gives the health community a primer on why, when and how climate information can and should be incorporated into health research, policy and practice. Madeleine Thomson, a health expert at IRI and faculty member at the Mailman School of Public Health, and Simon Mason, a […]
2018 September Quick Look
In mid-September 2018, the east-central tropical Pacific waters reflected ENSO-neutral conditions, with near to slightly above-average SST. The key atmospheric variables also suggested neutral conditions, although weakly westerly low-level wind anomalies have developed. The subsurface water temperature continued to be above-average. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for a 50-55% chance of El Niño development during fall, rising to 65-70% for winter 2018-19. An El Niño watch is in effect. The latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively favor El Niño development during fall, most likely maintaining weak strength during late fall and winter; most forecasters agree with this scenario.
August Climate Briefing: Winds Breathe Life into Probable El Niño Development
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have bounced around some since last month’s briefing, but models continue to predict an El Niño event to develop. Weekly SST anomalies in the area of the […]
2018 August Quick Look
In mid-August 2018, the east-central tropical Pacific waters reflected ENSO-neutral conditions, with near-average SST, slightly lower than a month ago. The key atmospheric variables also suggested neutral conditions, although westerly low-level wind anomalies have recently developed. The subsurface water temperature continued to be above-average. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for neutral conditions through the rest of northern summer, with a 60% chance of El Niño development during fall, rising to 70% for winter 2018-19. An El Niño watch is in effect. The latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively favor weak El Niño development by early fall, growing to weak or possibly moderate strength during late fall and winter; most forecasters agree with this scenario.