Results for 'forecasts'
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December Climate Briefing: Atmosphere Resists El Niño Participation
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. What’s New Typically, as we near the end of a calendar year, there is relative certainty about the anticipated state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation in the coming months. At this time of year, the ENSO cycle is in a less chaotic state, and […]
Bangladesh Gets a New Climate Academy
Bangladesh takes new step to integrate climate services into planning around food security
2018 December Quick Look
El Niño-level SSTs continued to be observed in the November average, and the subsurface waters continued to be warmer than average. However, most atmospheric variables continued to show ENSO-neutral patterns. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for a 96% chance of El Niño prevailing during winter, and 70% during Mar-May 2019. An El Niño watch is in effect. The most recent forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively show continuing El Niño-level SSTs, most likely weak to moderate in strength, continuing as a weak event through spring and even into summer.
IRI@AGU: What’s Climate Doing to Guatemala’s Coffee?
The Samalá River watershed on Guatemala’s Pacific coast is a highly productive region for staple and cash crops. It’s also known for having one of the highest incidences of natural disasters in the country. Among the diverse agricultural production in the region, coffee stands as one of the most important export crops. Over the last […]
IRI@AGU: Climate Information for Food Systems
Sourcing seeds. Planting at the right time. Using fertilizer. Harvesting crops. Storing food. Shipping food. Setting prices. There are a multitude of decisions made in the systems that bring food to people around the world, and many of these decisions can be better informed by climate information. With the goal of improving the security and […]
IRI@AGU: Forecast-based Financing for Flash Floods
Forecasts are increasingly used to help reduce the impacts of floods in vulnerable communities. Not all floods are created equal, however. Flash floods are one of the most deadly types on a global scale. While early warning and early action systems for slow-onset floods (from rivers, for example) have improved significantly over the past 50 […]
IRI@AGU: Schedule of Events 2018
A range of IRI’s areas of expertise will be represented at this year’s annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU). Below is the schedule of IRI’s posters and presentations in sequential order. MONDAY Climate Services Research and Development: Adapting to Climate Today Lisa M Goddard is the primary convener for both a presentation and poster […]
IRI@AGU: The Latest in Subseasonal Climate Prediction
Until recently, predicting rainfall and temperature at the subseasonal timescale (i.e. between two weeks and three months) was considered impossible. That’s beginning to change, and several of IRI’s activities at AGU highlight the work of our scientists in this new field of climate prediction. IRI has now released its first subseasonal forecasts, using a similar […]
National Climate Assessment: Threats to U.S. International Interests
John Furlow is the Deputy Director for Humanitarian Assistance and International Development of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society. Before joining IRI, he was the lead on climate adaptation at the U.S. Agency for International Development’s climate change office. He also served as an author of the new U.S. National Climate Assessment‘s chapter […]
November Climate Briefing: El Niño Odds Keep Climbing
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New Sea-surface temperatures have remained above average in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean that defines El Niño events (called Niño3.4 – see tweet below). The SSTs have been above the +0.50ºC anomaly threshold that helps […]
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