Results for 'forecasts'
Found 522 results.
2019 August Quick Look
The weak El Niño of 2018-19 has ended, as SSTs in the east-central Pacific cooled to ENSO-neutral levels during July. Patterns in most atmospheric variables also are showing ENSO-neutral conditions. Collective model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through autumn and winter, but with higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook, no longer carrying an El Niño advisory, generally agrees with the model forecasts through winter.
July Climate Briefing: El Niño Shows Signs of Weakening
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Nachiketa Acharya provides the briefing summary: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows the outputs of […]
2019 July Quick Look
SSTs in the east-central Pacific declined to ENSO-neutral levels during early July, but still above average. Temperature anomalies of subsurface waters were near-average. Patterns in the atmosphere showed mainly ENSO-neutral to borderline El Niño conditions. Collective model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through autumn, possibly returning to weak El Niño by winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook, still with an El Niño advisory, calls for a transition to ENSO-neutral by late summer, most likely remaining neutral through fall and winter.
Study: How much do climate fluctuations matter for global crop yields?
A new study finds that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation has been responsible for widespread, simultaneous crop failures in recent history, running counter to a central pillar of the global agriculture system, which assumes that crop failures in geographically distant breadbasket regions are unrelated.
June Climate Briefing: El Niño Still Finalizing its Summer Plans
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides his last overview of the briefing: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows […]
ACToday Helps Unite Farmers and Scientists to Solve Climate Challenges in Guatemala
Adapting Agriculture to Climate Today, for Tomorrow (ACToday) is a Columbia World Project led by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society. The project aims to combat hunger and improve food security by increasing climate knowledge in six countries that are particularly dependent on agriculture and vulnerable to the effects of climate change and […]
2019 June Quick Look
SSTs in the tropical Pacific maintained a weak El Niño level during May and early June, and temperature anomalies of subsurface waters were slightly above average. Some patterns in the atmosphere show intermittent El Niño conditions. Collective model forecasts show a continuation of at least weak El Niño-level SSTs lasting through 2019. The official CPC/IRI outlook, with an El Niño advisory, calls for a 66% chance of El Niño continuing during Jun-Aug, decreasing to 50-55% for continuing through fall and winter.
Climate Data Initiative Begins Work on a New Continent
This year, after a decade of operating solely in Africa, the ENACTS initiative is expanding to Bangladesh. This expansion is part of ACToday, a Columbia World Project that applies climate research to efforts to improve food security and nutrition in six countries around the world, including Bangladesh. ENACTS, which stands for Enhancing National Climate Services, […]
May Climate Briefing: Models Say El Niño Stays, but it’s an Uncertain Time of Year
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides his last overview of the briefing: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation, and our update from March for much more on how this ENSO event has evolved. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the […]
2019 May Quick Look
SSTs in the tropical Pacific maintained a weak El Niño level during April and early May, while temperature anomalies of subsurface waters decreased markedly to just slightly above average. Some patterns in the atmosphere show weak El Niño conditions. Collective model forecasts show a continuation of at least weak El Niño-level SSTs lasting through 2019. The official CPC/IRI outlook, with an El Niño advisory, calls for an approximate 70% chance of El Niño continuing during Jun-Aug, decreasing to 55-60% for Sep-Nov.