Results for 'forecasts'
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April Climate Briefing: Models Say Weak El Niño Will Continue
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New An abbreviated briefing update this month. See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation, and our update from March for much more on how this ENSO event has evolved. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO […]
2019 April Quick Look
SSTs in the tropical Pacific maintained a weak El Niño level during March and early April, while temperature anomalies of subsurface waters decreased somewhat but continued to be positive. Patterns in the atmosphere show weak El Niño conditions. Collective model forecasts show a continuation of at least weak El Niño-level SSTs lasting through 2019. The somewhat more cautious official CPC/IRI outlook, with an El Niño advisory, calls for an approximate 65% chance of El Niño prevailing during Jun-Aug, decreasing to 50-55% for Sep-Nov.
Training the Agents of Change: A New Approach to Reach Ethiopia’s Climate-Vulnerable Farmers
Driving on a new, six-lane expressway, it takes about an hour and a half to get from Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, to the city of Adama, about 60 miles to the southeast. Around 300,000 of Ethiopia’s 100 million people live in Adama, and at its center it feels just as bustling as the nearby capital, […]
Mixing Science With Tradition Among Burkina Faso’s Migratory Herders
Anthropologists are working with Fulani community leaders to promote knowledge-sharing between herders and climate scientists.
March Climate Briefing: El Niño is Here, and Staying Awhile
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New An abbreviated briefing update this month. See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation, and last month’s update for much more on how this ENSO event has evolved. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, […]
2019 March Quick Look
SSTs in the tropical Pacific increased within the weak El Niño category during February and early March, while subsurface waters became more strongly warmer than average. Patterns in the atmosphere now clearly suggest El Niño conditions. Collective model forecasts show a continuation of at least weak El Niño-level SSTs through spring and summer, likely even lasting through 2019. The official CPC/IRI outlook, with an El Niño advisory, calls for a 80% chance of El Niño prevailing during Mar-May, decreasing to 60% for Jun-Aug.
February Climate Briefing: El Niño Arrives, Unfashionably Late
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New The long-predicted El Niño event in the Pacific seems to finally have taken shape. While sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific cooled somewhat for a few weeks in the Niño3.4 region, other factors pointed towards El […]
2019 February Quick Look
SSTs in the tropical Pacific cooled to a borderline El Niño level in January and early February, while subsurface waters continued to be warmer than average. However, some atmospheric patterns of El Niño that had been lacking, finally developed in late January and February. Collective forecasts of models show a return to weak El Niño-level SSTs into summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook, now carrying an El Niño advisory, calls for a 65% chance of El Niño prevailing during Feb-Apr, decreasing to 50% for Apr-Jun.
January Climate Briefing: El Niño Development Wavers But Odds Remain High
This briefing update was written by Elisabeth Gawthrop and Jacquelyn Turner. Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New Sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have cooled slightly since this time last month. The SST conditions of the Niño3.4 region, shown in tweet image […]
2019 January Quick Look
El Niño-level SSTs continued to be observed in the December average, and the subsurface waters continued to be warmer than average, but less strongly so. However, key atmospheric variables continued to show mainly ENSO-neutral patterns. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for a 82% chance of El Niño prevailing during Jan-Mar, and 66% during Mar-May. An El Niño watch is in effect. The most recent forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively show continuing weak El Niño-level SSTs through late spring.