Results for 'forecasts'
Found 522 results.
Nuevo Estudio Muestra Promesa en Pronóstico Subestacional de Lluvias Intensas en Sudamérica
Análisis de inundaciones en Paraguay durante El Niño 2015-16 examina influencia del clima a multiples escalas de tiempo Traducido por Ángel G. Muñoz El río Paraguay es una vena esencial para un país sin acceso al mar que comparte su nombre. Provee a los paraguayos irrigación para agricultura, acceso a navegación, y mejora la pesca. […]
Global Climate Models For Public Health? Useful, But Not In The Way We Think.
A new paper in PLOS Medicine argues that climate change projections are often misused in health impact studies: they are best suited for shaping public health policies, not for triggering operational actions on the ground. “Recognition that climate change is already underway has led to an increasing focus on adaptation,” write IRI’s Hannah Nissan and her […]
July Climate Briefing: Models Continue to Predict El Niño in Coming Months
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have continued to warm since last month’s briefing. Weekly SST anomalies in the area of the Pacific that helps define El Niño and La Niña events, […]
2018 July Quick Look
In mid-July 2018, the east-central tropical Pacific waters reflected ENSO-neutral conditions, with slightly above average SST. The key atmospheric variables also suggested neutral conditions. The subsurface water temperature continued to be above-average. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for neutral conditions through northern summer season, with a 65% chance of El Niño development during fall, rising to 70% for winter 2018-19. An El Niño watch is in effect. The latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively favor weak El Niño development by late summer or early fall, growing to weak or moderate strength during late fall and winter; forecasters are largely buying into this scenario now that the spring barrier is largely passed.
SIMAGRI: An Agro-climate Decision Support Tool
Author(s):
New Tutorials for Using Subseasonal Climate Data
A new series of video tutorials, as well as a written walk-through, give step-by-step instructions for accessing, viewing and downloading subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate data. The tutorials use the International Research Institute for Climate and Society’s Data Library, which hosts S2S data from modeling centers around the world. The written tutorial first appeared in the S2S […]
How-To: IRI Data Library for S2S Climate Data
Visualizing, Analyzing and Downloading Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Data with the IRI Data Library: A Swiss-Army-Knife for S2S Data By Andrew W. Robertson, Ángel G. Muñoz, Michael Bell This article originally appeared in the newsletter [PDF] of the S2S Prediction Project, of which Robertson serves as co-chair. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society […]
Los pronósticos experimentales podrían ayudar a Guatemala a recuperarse de la erupción volcánica
Por Sarah Fecht. Traducción al español por Manuel Brahm English version available here. El Volcán de Fuego en Guatemala entro en erupción a principios de junio, matando a al menos 110 personas, mientras que cientos más permanecen desaparecidos. Las corrientes de lava y las columnas de humo y ceniza han desplazado a miles de guatemaltecos […]
June Climate Briefing: El Niño Odds Increasing, Watch Issued
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have continued to warm since last month’s briefing. Weekly SST anomalies in the area of the Pacific that helps define El Niño and La Niña events, called […]
2018 June Quick Look
In mid-June 2018, the east-central tropical Pacific waters reflected ENSO-neutral conditions, as did all key atmospheric variables. The subsurface water temperature continued to be above-average, and this strengthened further during May. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for neutral conditions through northern summer season, with a 50% chance of El Niño development during fall, rising to 65% during winter 2018-19. An El Niño watch has been issued. The latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively favor weak El Niño development during late summer, growing to possibly moderate strength during fall and winter; forecasters are largely buying into this scenario as the spring barrier is now mostly passed.
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