Results for 'forecasts'
Found 522 results.
Seasonal Climate Hindcast Verifications
Seasonal Hindcast Maprooms Hindcast skill verifications maprooms using RPSS are available here. Seasonal Precipitation Reliability Diagram The tercile-category diagrams below are for the lead 1 hindcasts 1991-2020, pooled over all start months and land 1×1 grid points, within 30 degrees of the equator (Tropics) and poleward of 30 degrees (Extratropics). These were computed in May […]
ACToday Partners
Introduction ACToday aimed to transform the way that climate knowledge and information is brought to bear on the challenges of hunger, food security, nutrition, and sustainable agriculture. It fostered the use of climate services as a means to create a tangible impact on the food systems of six target countries. In doing so, it both […]
Meet the next generation of Africa’s climate forecasters
Written by Amanda Grossi and Francesco Fiondella This story is adapted from one originally published by Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA). New state-of-the-art forecasting systems developed at IRI are enabling regional and national meteorological agencies to generate timely and decision-relevant climate information for their agricultural sectors. East Africa is experiencing some […]
Digital innovation harnesses power of real-time weather data
Written by Amanda Grossi and Francesco Fiondella This story is adapted from one originally published by Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA). A new data-management and visualization tool developed at IRI is helping national meteorological services and regional climate centers across Africa harness real-time weather data for decision-making in agriculture. National meteorological […]
December 2022 Quick Look
In mid-December, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific remain below-average. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables have remained consistent with La Niña conditions, though there are indications that this is weakening. A CPC La Niña Advisory still remains in place for December 2022. Several models (11 out of 18) in the plume predict SSTs to transition from the level of a La Niña to ENSO-neutral state during Jan-Mar, 2023. According to the early-December CPC ENSO forecast, La Niña and ENSO-neutral conditions are equally likely (50/50) during Jan-Mar 2023, with ENSO-neutral becoming the most likely category in subsequent three seasons. However, based on the objective ENSO forecasts, La Niña is expected to transition into ENSO-neutral during Jan-Mar 2023, which remains the most likely category until Apr-Jun 2023. The likelihood of El Niño remains low through Apr-Jun 2023 (49% chance), and becomes the dominant category thereafter with probabilities in the 60-66% range.
November 2022 Quick Look
In mid-November, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific remain below-average. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables have remained consistent with La Niña conditions, though there is a large drop in SOI value recently (+6.9 as of 16 November, 2022). A CPC La Niña Advisory still remains in place for November 2022. Several models in the plume predict SSTs to remain below-normal at the level of a La Niña until at least Jan-Mar 2023. Similar to the most-recent official CPC ENSO Outlook issued on November 10, 2022, the IRI objective model-based ENSO outlook forecasts a continuation of the La Niña event with high probability during Dec-Feb, which decreases to 56% in Jan-Mar 2023. Based on objective ENSO forecasts, La Niña is expected to transition into ENSO-neutral during Feb-Apr 2023, which remains the most likely category until Jun-Aug 2023. The likelihood of El Niño remains very low through Apr-Jun, but rises to 30% in May-Jul 2023, and becomes the dominant category at 47% in Jul-Sep 2023.
October 2022 Quick Look
In mid-October, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific remain below-average. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables have remained consistent with La Niña conditions. A CPC La Niña Advisory still remains in place for October 2022. A large majority of the models in the plume predict SSTs to remain below-normal at the level of a La Niña until at least Jan-Mar 2023. Similar to the most-recent official CPC ENSO Outlook issued on October 13, 2022, the objective model-based ENSO outlook forecasts a continuation of the La Niña event with high probability during Nov-Jan, Dec-Feb, and Jan-Mar 2023. Based on objective ENSO forecasts, La Niña is expected to transition into ENSO-neutral during Feb-Apr 2023, which remains the most likely category thereafter.
25 Years of Translating Climate Science Into Action
Since its inception, the Columbia Climate School’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society has transformed the way the world thinks about climate and climate adaptation. For decades, the IRI has helped to build bridges between people who generate climate information and people who need it, in order to protect against food insecurity, disease outbreaks, […]
September 2022 Quick Look
In mid-September, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific remain below-average. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables have remained consistent with La Niña conditions. A CPC La Niña Advisory still remains in place for September 2022. A large majority of the models in the plume predict SSTs to remain below-normal at the level of a La Niña until at least Dec-Feb 2023. Similar to the most-recent official CPC ENSO Outlook issued on September 08, 2022, the objective model-based ENSO outlook forecasts a continuation of the La Niña event with high probability during boreal fall and moderate probability values during winter. ENSO-neutral becomes the most likely category in Jan-Mar 2023 onward.
August 2022 Quick Look
In mid-August, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific remain below-average. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables have remained consistent with La Niña conditions, strengthening slightly. A CPC La Niña Advisory still remains in place for August 2022. A large majority of the models in the plume predict SSTs to remain below-normal at the level of a La Niña until at least Dec-Feb 2023. Similar to the most-recent official CPC ENSO Outlook issued on August 11, 2022, the objective model-based ENSO outlook forecasts a continuation of the La Niña event with moderate probability during Sep-Nov 2022, continuing into boreal fall and winter. ENSO-neutral becomes the most likely category in Jan-Mar 2023 onward.