Seasonal Climate Hindcast Verifications

Seasonal Hindcast Maprooms

Hindcast skill verifications maprooms using RPSS are available here.

Seasonal Precipitation Reliability Diagram

The tercile-category diagrams below are for the lead 1 hindcasts 1991-2020, pooled over all start months and land 1×1 grid points, within 30 degrees of the equator (Tropics) and poleward of 30 degrees (Extratropics). These were computed in May 2023, using the calibrated MME comprising the NCEP-CFSv2, CanSIPS-IC3, COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4, and GFDL-SPEAR, and NASA-GEOSS2S models. The climatological base period for normal is 1991-2020.

The histograms show the frequency of hindcasts in each 0.1 probability bin (the 10
bin-centers are labeled), with the ordinate scaled from 0% to 100%.

Seasonal Temperature Reliability Diagram