Results for 'forecasts'
Found 522 results.
Forecasts of near-global sea surface temperatures using canonical correlation analysis
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97-99 El Nino/La Nina Episode in Sri Lanka: Forecasts, Communication, Responses and Impacts in an Indebted and Peripheral Country
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Current and Potential Use of Climate Forecasts for Resource-poor Farmers in Zimbabwe
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Seasonal forecasts of the dengue vector
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Integrating Climate Forecasts and Societal Decision-making: Challenges to an Emergent Boundary Organization.
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Climate: The Ethiopia Food Crisis: Uses and Limits of Seasonal Climate Forecasts
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Statistical downscaling of monthly forecasts.
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Who benefits from climate forecasts?
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IRIP-CR-SF 96/1: El Niño impact on water Resources in Central and South America and New Methodologies of Practical Use to Seasonal and Inter-annual Hydrologic Forecasts. Results from a regional training course, “Practical Application of Short Term…” July 1995, Santa Fe, Argentina
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July 2024 Quick Look
As of mid-July 2024, ENSO-neutral conditions persist in the western equatorial Pacific, and oceanic and atmospheric indicators also align with ENSO-neutral state. The IRI ENSO prediction plume forecast ENSO-neutral for Jul-Sep, and Aug-Oct, 2024. La Niña becomes the most probable category in Sep-Nov, 2024 through Dec-Feb, 2025, while for Jan-Mar, 2025 ENSO-neutral conditions become dominant (50% chance), and remain so during Feb-Apr, and Mar-May, 2025.
Similar to the most recent official CPC ENSO Outlook (issued on July 11, 2024), the objective IRI model-based ENSO outlook forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral conditions for Jul-Sep 2024. However, there is a notable difference between the probability numbers in the early-month CPC and mid-month IRI ENSO forecasts. The CPC ENSO forecasts predict a 70% chance of La Niña onset in Aug-Oct 2024, which then persists with increasing probabilities reaching into the range from 66% to 81% during the boreal fall and winter seasons. In contrast, the objective IRI ENSO forecasts show a late onset of La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific (49% chance in Sep-Nov 2024), with persistence into the fall and early winter, though with very low probabilities ranging from 52% to 48%. The forecasts then show a return to ENSO-neutral conditions in Jan-Mar 2025, and remain dominant for the rest of the forecasts period. The low probability numbers reflect a high level of uncertainty in the forecasts, due to the relatively low skill of seasonal forecast models at this time of year. Therefore, these ENSO forecasts should be interpreted with caution.