Results for 'forecasts'
Found 522 results.
Use of seasonal rainfall in forecasting annual national coconut production in Sri Lanka: an integrated approach
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A multi-scale and multi-model gridded framework for forecasting crop production, risk analysis, and climate change impact studies
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Climate services can support African farmers’ context-specific adaptation needs at scale
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Seasonal prediction of the Caribbean rainfall cycle
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July 2022 Quick Look
In mid-July, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific remain below-average. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables have remained consistent with La Niña conditions, although weakened. A La Niña Advisory still remains in place for July 2022. A large majority of the models in the plume predict SSTs to remain below-normal at the level of a weak La Niña until at least Sep-Nov 2022. Similar to the most-recent official CPC/IRI ENSO Outlook issued on July 14, 2022, the objective model-based ENSO outlook forecasts a continuation of the La Niña event with moderate probability (68% chance) during Aug-Oct 2022, continuing into boreal fall and early winter with 63-70% likelihood, with ENSO-neutral becoming the most likely category in Jan-Mar 2023 onward.
K-12 Materials
Curriculum Overview Climate services, like those provided by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), use climate data, forecasts, and science to inform decision making for real world problems. This unit contains three modules appropriate for middle and high schoolers that discuss how relevant climate information is generated and used in practice. A […]
Re-prioritizing climate services for agriculture: Insights from Bangladesh
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June 2022 Quick Look
In mid-June, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific remain below-average (warming slightly). Key oceanic and atmospheric variables have remained consistent with La Niña conditions, although weakened slightly. A La Niña Advisory still remains in place for June 2022. A large majority of the models in the plume predict SSTs to remain below-normal at the level of a weak La Niña until Jul-Sep 2022. Similar to the most-recent official CPC/IRI ENSO Outlook issued on June 9, 2022, the objective model-based ENSO outlook forecasts a continuation of the La Niña event with moderate probability (52% chance) during Jul-Sep 2022, continuing into boreal fall and winter with 51-59% likelihood.
Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions
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May 2022 Quick Look
In mid-May, Sea Surface Temperatures remain below-average (strengthening slightly) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables have remained consistent with La Niña conditions, although easterly winds and cold subsurface temperatures have weakened slightly. A La Niña Advisory still remained in place for May 2022. A large majority of the models in the plume predict SSTs to remain below-normal at the level of a weak La Niña until Jun-Aug 2022. Similar to the most-recent official CPC/IRI ENSO Outlook issued on May 12, 2022, the objective model-based ENSO outlook forecasts a continuation of the La Niña event with high probability (62% chance) during Jun-Aug 2022, continuing into boreal fall and early winter with 55-60% likelihood.Similar to the most-recent official CPC/IRI ENSO Outlook issued on April 14, 2022, this objective model-based ENSO outlook also forecasts a continuation of the La Niña event with high probability (61% chance) during May-Jul. However, there is some disagreement between the two forecast methods thereafter. The objective mid-April model-based forecast gives near equal odds to the La Niña and ENSO-neutral categories in boreal summer, with La Niña is favored in Sep-Nov, and Oct-Dec 2022 (54% chance), while the early-April subjective consensus indicates a continuation of La Niña with a 50-55% chance throughout both summer and fall.