Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-May, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures, while still slightly cool, are now within the range of ENSO-neutral. Atmospheric indicators are similarly consistent with the end of La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist through August-October 2021, […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-April, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures remained just within the weak La Niña range, and while some atmospheric indicators appeared weakly La Niña-like, others were consistent with ENSO neutral conditions. A new set of model runs predicts La Niña conditions are likely to dissipate by […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-March, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures remained below average and within the moderate strength La Niña range. All atmospheric parameters also indicated La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts La Niña conditions are likely to dissipate by June 2021, with neutral […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-February, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures rose slightly but remained below average and within the moderate strength La Niña range. All atmospheric parameters also indicated La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts La Niña conditions are likely to dissipate by April-June […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-January, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures were well below average and into the moderate strength La Niña range. All atmospheric parameters also indicated La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts La Niña conditions are likely to dissipate by May-June 2021, with […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-December, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures were well below average and into the moderate strength La Niña range. All atmospheric parameters also indicated La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts moderate or possibly strong La Niña conditions through 2020, approaching a […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-November, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures were well below average and into the moderate strength La Niña range. All atmospheric parameters also indicated La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts moderate or possibly strong La Niña conditions through 2020, approaching a […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-October, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures were well below average and into the moderate strength La Niña range. All atmospheric parameters also indicated La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts moderate or possibly strong La Niña conditions through 2020 and most […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-September, the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures were below average and into the weak/moderate La Niña range. Most atmospheric indicators also suggested La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts likely weak or moderate La Nina through fall and most of winter, […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-August, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures were below average, near the threshold for weak La Niña conditions. Some atmospheric indicators showed neutral conditions while others leaned toward La Niña. A new set of model runs predicts that weak La Niña conditions are most likely […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-July, the sea-surface temperatures were slightly below average but in the ENSO-neutral range, and some atmospheric indicators showed neutral conditions while others leaned slightly toward La Niña. A new set of model runs predicts that cool-neutral or weak La Niña conditions are most likely […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. By mid-June, the sea surface temperatures had decreased to borderline La Niña levels, while some atmospheric indictors show La Niña-leaning conditions and a few show neutral conditions. A new set of model runs predicts cool-neutral or weak La Niña conditions are most likely from late […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. As of mid-May, the sea surface temperatures had decreased to cool-neutral levels, while atmospheric indicators showed mainly neutral or slightly cool-leaning conditions. A new set of model runs predicts neutral conditions are most likely from summer through winter, with a 51% probability for ENSO-neutral for […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. As of mid-April, the sea surface temperatures were at warm-neutral to borderline El Niño levels, while atmospheric indictors showed mainly neutral conditions. A new set of model runs predicts neutral conditions are most likely through summer and fall, with an 81% probability for ENSO-neutral (19% […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. As of mid-March, the sea-surface temperatures were at warm-neutral to borderline El Niño levels, while atmospheric indicators showed mainly neutral conditions. A new set of model runs predicts neutral conditions are most likely through summer, with a 79% probability for ENSO-neutral (21% chance for El […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. As of mid-February, the sea-surface temperatures were at warm-neutral levels, while atmospheric indicators showed mainly warm-neutral conditions. A new set of model runs predicts neutral conditions are most likely through summer, with a 61% probability for ENSO-neutral (39% chance for El Niño) for the February-April […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. As of mid-January, the sea-surface temperatures were at warm-neutral to borderline El Niño levels, while atmospheric indicators showed mainly warm-neutral conditions. A new set of model runs from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society and the Climate Prediction Center predicts neutral conditions as […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Ángel G. Muñoz provides the briefing summary: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows the outputs […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Weston Anderson provides the briefing summary: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows the outputs of […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides the briefing summary: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows the outputs of […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Weston Anderson provides the briefing summary: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows the outputs of […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Ángel Muñoz provides the briefing summary: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows the outputs of […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Nachiketa Acharya provides the briefing summary: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows the outputs of […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides his last overview of the briefing: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides his last overview of the briefing: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation, and our update from March for much more on how this ENSO event has evolved. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New An abbreviated briefing update this month. See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation, and our update from March for much more on how this ENSO event has evolved. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New An abbreviated briefing update this month. See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation, and last month’s update for much more on how this ENSO event has evolved. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New The long-predicted El Niño event in the Pacific seems to finally have taken shape. While sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific cooled somewhat for a few weeks in the Niño3.4 region, other factors pointed towards El […]
This briefing update was written by Elisabeth Gawthrop and Jacquelyn Turner. Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New Sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have cooled slightly since this time last month. The SST conditions of the Niño3.4 region, shown in tweet image […]
Read this story in English Esta primavera el IRI implementó una nueva metodología para nuestros pronósticos estacionales de temperatura y precipitación alrededor del mundo. Le pregutamos a Simon Mason, Andrew Robertson y a Tony Barnston, tres de nuestros científicos que lideran el desarrollo y calibración de los pronósticos del IRI, algunas preguntas fundamentales sobre el […]
Leer en castellano This spring, IRI implemented a new methodology for our seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts around the world. We asked Simon Mason, Andrew Robertson and Tony Barnston, three of our senior climate scientists who lead the development and tailoring of IRI’s forecasts, to answer some fundamental questions about the new forecast. If you […]
Several decades of climate research have shown seasonal temperature and rainfall patterns over southern Africa to be predictable months in advance. While scientists recognized the importance of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on seasonal climate variability in this region during the 1980s, South Africa first began issuing regular seasonal forecasts in the early 1990s. Over the past twenty years, enhanced modeling systems have […]
Innovative flexible temperature and precipitation forecasts are among a broad suite of tools available as part of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society’s Map Rooms. How are these forecasts used, and what makes them “flexible”? Flexible forecasts offer an alternative to traditional three-category, or tercile, climate forecast maps, which indicate the probability that temperatures or rainfall […]
Next week, the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (known as CariCOF) will kick off in Kingston, Jamaica. At this event, both providers and users of climate information from across the Caribbean will discuss the upcoming season’s forecast and the ways the forecast might be used to make decisions in water resources, tourism and disaster risk management. To learn […]
At IRI’s monthly climate briefing, talk often focuses on the role that El Niño or La Niña play in driving global climate. With the collapse of La Niñalast month, though, IRI’s forecasters now have to rely on different tools to offer forecasts for the coming year. That’s both good and bad news for forecasting skill. Climate […]
Lisa Goddard, a climate scientist at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, has been appointed to the National Academies of Science’s prestigious Climate Research Committee. She will be helping to promote progress in her field and give advice to government agencies on the scientific aspects of climate and climate change. The CRC also […]
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, part of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies have forged a partnership to help save lives from the humanitarian impacts of climate change. The IRI is developing tailored forecasting and monitoring products to help the International […]