Results for 'forecasts'
Found 522 results.
June Climate Briefing: El Niño Certainty Increases
From the June climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Over the last month, the ongoing El Niño in the east-central Pacific has intensified to moderate strength. There is now a 99% chance of El Niño for the June-August season, and chances stay […]
Behind the Expected Quiet 2015 Hurricane Season
By Chia-Ying Lee, IRI Postdoctoral Research Scientist This post originally appeared in the Earth Institute’s State of the Planet Blog. It does not feel like summer in New York City as I write, but today (a cool, rainy June 1) is the official start day for the Atlantic hurricane season, which will last until November 30. What […]
May Climate Briefing: El Niño Heating Up
From the May climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing El Niño, a state of warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, has recently intensified, though scientists aren’t sure how strong the event will become. The El Niño phenomenon is part of a natural cycle of […]
Seasonal Climate Verifications
Download: Descriptions of the IRI Climate Forecast Verification Scores The verification maps and time series show skills of IRI’s forecasts issued in real time from late 1997 to present. The forecasts since April 2017 are upscaled to a 2.5-degree grid for precipitation (2.0 degree grid for temperature) to match the horizontal resolution of the previous system […]
April Climate Briefing: El Niño, For Now
From the April climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing A weak El Niño continues in the central Pacific, and the chance that such conditions will persist has risen since last month’s forecast. It hovers around 80% through late summer, although it should be noted […]
One Size Fits None: Drought forecasting in the Caribbean
This post contains excerpts from the full version on our Medium account. Most extreme climate and weather events involve an unwanted surplus — too much rain, too much wind or too much snow and ice. Drought is a little different: it’s the absence of something. It takes time for a drought to build, making it fundamentally different to monitor […]
#WorldMetDay: Climate Knowledge for Climate Action
Today is World Meteorological Day, this year themed Climate Knowledge for Climate Action. Since this is basically the name of our game here at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, we thought we’d share some of our recent, related activities. Working with the World Meteorological Organization Earlier this month, Rupa Kumar Kolli, Chief of the World […]
March Climate Briefing: El Niño’s Beginning..or End?
From the March climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center and IRI issued an El Niño advisory, which indicates that El Niño conditions are present and expected to persist for the next […]
Video: Managing Water in a Dry Land
The Elqui River valley lies in Chile’s northern, mountainous Coquimbo region, which is extremely dry. The region receives only about 100 millimeters (4 inches) of rain each year, and most of it during one short rainy season. The rainfall is also highly variable and driven in large part on El Niño and La Niña fluctuations. In some years, […]
Frequency of Tornadoes, Hail Linked to El Niño, La Niña
Study May Aid Seasonal Forecasting Climate scientists can spot El Niño and La Niña conditions developing months ahead of time, and they use this knowledge to make more accurate forecasts of droughts, flooding and even hurricane activity around the world. Now, a new study shows that El Niño and La Niña conditions can also help […]
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