Results for 'forecasts'
Found 522 results.
NOAA: El Niño is (technically) here
The National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) increased the status of El Niño from watch to advisory, indicating that El Niño has officially arrived. The latest update, issued today by CPC and IRI, indicates a 50-60% chance of El Niño conditions persisting into the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. The update notes, however, that due to its weak expected […]
February Climate Briefing: El Tease-O
From the February climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the current (February – April) season is around 48%, down from 63% last month. These odds for the current season are down slightly from those issued by […]
ENSO Essentials
What do we mean by “El Niño?” The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important and longest-studied climate phenomena on the planet. It can lead to large-scale changes in sea-level pressures, sea-surface temperatures, precipitation and winds–not only in the tropics but across many other regions of the world. ENSO describes the natural year-to-year variations in […]
Why do we care about El Niño and La Niña?
Scientists have shown that the occurrence of floods, droughts and other climate-related disasters is not statistically different among years with El Niño, neutral or La Niña conditions (see Figure 1). So why does the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, matter? The short answer: in years with El Niño or La Niña conditions, such disasters may be more predictable, allowing decision […]
El Niño Odds Reduced
From the January climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the current (January – March) season is around 63%, down from 76% last month. These odds for the current season are similar to those issued by the NOAA […]
December Climate Briefing: El Limbo Continues
From the December climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the current (December-February) season is over 80%, up slightly from last month. These odds for the current season are also higher than those issued by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center/IRI […]
IRI@AGU: Teaching Climate & Society
Headed to AGU? Find the full schedule of IRI staff presenting here. The Climate and Society Master of Arts program at Columbia University works at the intersection of climate science and environmental policy, blending social and physical sciences in an innovative 12-month program. With more than 250 alumni entering different sectors like energy, disaster mitigation, […]
IRI@AGU: Schedule of Events
The IRI has a record thirteen scientists and staff presenting at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Meeting this year. Below is the schedule of events for those presenting, organized by theme and with links to additional information about their research. CLIMATE & HEALTH Climate and Population Health Vulnerabilities to Vector-Borne Diseases: Increasing Resilience Under Climate […]
Climate and Forecast Products
Access IRI’s extensive collection of forecast, monitoring, and analysis products, including IRI’s real-time seasonal climate and ENSO forecasts.
Getting it Right on Climate Resilience
By Lisa Goddard, IRI Director For many parts of the world, especially in developing countries, no early warning systems exist for storms or floods. No decision-support systems provide regular or timely information for farmers that depend on seasonal rains. The impacts are broad – this century has already seen a million deaths and $1.7 trillion […]
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