Results for 'forecasts'
Found 522 results.
August Climate Briefing: La Niña Seeming More Likely
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-August, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures were below average, near the threshold for weak La Niña conditions. Some atmospheric indicators showed neutral conditions while others leaned toward La Niña. A new set of model runs predicts that weak La Niña conditions are most likely […]
2020 August Quick Look
In mid-August, SSTs in the east-central Pacific are somewhat below average, and the atmospheric variables are either ENSO-neutral or leaning toward La Niña-ish conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models for fall slightly exceeds the threshold of weak La Niña SST conditions, persisting but slightly weakening slightly by winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is similar to these model forecasts, calling for a 60% chance of La Niña for fall and 55% chance for continuing through winter. A La Niña watch is posted.
The Mosquito, the Virus, the Climate: An Unforeseen Réunion in 2018
Author(s):
Realtime Tracking and Forecasting of Outbreak Risk of Dengue, Zika and other Aedes-transmitted Diseases
New system infuses ‘R0’ models with climate information to help public health agencies forecast places and times when environmental conditions might enhance transmission of dengue, Zika and other Aedes-borne diseases
July Climate Briefing: La Niña Watch Issued
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-July, the sea-surface temperatures were slightly below average but in the ENSO-neutral range, and some atmospheric indicators showed neutral conditions while others leaned slightly toward La Niña. A new set of model runs predicts that cool-neutral or weak La Niña conditions are most likely […]
2020 July Quick Look
In mid-July, SSTs in the east-central Pacific are in the cool-neutral range, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or slightly leaning toward La Niña-ish conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models for fall are near the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions, weakening slightly by winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is similar to these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of ENSO-neutral in summer, with a 55% chance of La Niña for fall and 50% chance for continuing through winter. A La Niña watch is now posted.
June Climate Briefing: La Niña Odds Increasing
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. By mid-June, the sea surface temperatures had decreased to borderline La Niña levels, while some atmospheric indictors show La Niña-leaning conditions and a few show neutral conditions. A new set of model runs predicts cool-neutral or weak La Niña conditions are most likely from late […]
2020 June Quick Look
SSTs in the east-central Pacific decreased to near the La Niña threshold in early June, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models hover near or just short of the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly weaker beginning in early winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is somewhat similar to these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of ENSO-neutral in summer, with approximately equal chances of ENSO-neutral or La Niña for fall and winter.
May Climate Briefing: ENSO-Neutral Conditions Dominate
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. As of mid-May, the sea surface temperatures had decreased to cool-neutral levels, while atmospheric indicators showed mainly neutral or slightly cool-leaning conditions. A new set of model runs predicts neutral conditions are most likely from summer through winter, with a 51% probability for ENSO-neutral for […]
2020 May Quick Look
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near-average in mid-May, and many of the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or leaning slightly in the cool-ENSO direction. Most model forecasts favor neutral SST conditions continuing into summer, becoming below-average but not necessarily into La Niña territory during lsummer through fall. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of ENSO-neutral in summer and fall, with some chance of La Niña by fall.