Results for 'forecasts'
Found 522 results.
April Climate Briefing: Wide Plume But Likely Cooling
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. As of mid-April, the sea surface temperatures were at warm-neutral to borderline El Niño levels, while atmospheric indictors showed mainly neutral conditions. A new set of model runs predicts neutral conditions are most likely through summer and fall, with an 81% probability for ENSO-neutral (19% […]
2020 April Quick Look
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño during mid-April. However, patterns in atmospheric variables were mainly neutral. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during the rest of spring, cooling to average by summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for continuation of ENSO-neutral through fall.
John Furlow: Helping Developing Countries Adapt to Climate Change
This piece was written by Sarah Fecht of the Earth Institute and originally published on the State of the Planet blog. John Furlow has spent more than a decade working with developing countries on the frontlines of climate change, helping them to adapt to changing conditions. Before he came to Columbia University’s International Research Institute […]
20190501
Validation and Verification Metrics for Seasonal Forecasts Assessment
March Climate Briefing: Still Not Cooling
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. As of mid-March, the sea-surface temperatures were at warm-neutral to borderline El Niño levels, while atmospheric indicators showed mainly neutral conditions. A new set of model runs predicts neutral conditions are most likely through summer, with a 79% probability for ENSO-neutral (21% chance for El […]
2020 March Quick Look
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but above average during mid-March. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and borderline El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during spring, cooling to average by early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for continuation of ENSO-neutral.
February Climate Briefing: “Warm-Neutral” and Slowly Cooling
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. As of mid-February, the sea-surface temperatures were at warm-neutral levels, while atmospheric indicators showed mainly warm-neutral conditions. A new set of model runs predicts neutral conditions are most likely through summer, with a 61% probability for ENSO-neutral (39% chance for El Niño) for the February-April […]
2020 February Quick Look
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but above average during mid-February. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and weak El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during spring, cooling to average by early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for continuation of ENSO-neutral.
Burkina Faso study shows link between land degradation and migration
Below is a piece originally published on The Conversation on January 21st, 2020, and was authored by IRI researcher Elisabeth Ilboudo-Nébié. In the Sahel of West Africa – which covers Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad – land degradation has led to migration towards less densely populated and more fertile areas. The land […]
January Climate Briefing: Forecast Toes Weak El Niño
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. As of mid-January, the sea-surface temperatures were at warm-neutral to borderline El Niño levels, while atmospheric indicators showed mainly warm-neutral conditions. A new set of model runs from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society and the Climate Prediction Center predicts neutral conditions as […]