IRI real-time seasonal climate forecasts and models

As of April 2017, the IRI has changed its forecasting methodology, described here: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/methodology/ The IRI has been issuing seasonal climate forecasts of precipitation and near-surface temperature for the globe since 1997, and on a monthly basis since 2001. IRI’s seasonal forecasts, prior to April 2017, were based on a two-tiered dynamically based multimodel prediction system. […]

Looking back: A year of forecasts, partnerships and climate information

by Manon Verchot In 2013, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society teamed up with the University of Arizona to help regions of the world that are most vulnerable to climate variability and change. Here’s a look at what has been accomplished so far. Farmers are at the mercy of the weather. They need […]

Crop Models to Integrate Data from Space with Climate Forecasts

In a few months, NASA will launch a new satellite mission called Soil Moisture Active Passive, SMAP, which will provide high-resolution global coverage of soil moisture conditions. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society is collaborating with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the CGIAR’s Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security to develop a crop-forecasting […]

How Good Have ENSO Forecasts Been Lately?

By IRI Chief Forecaster Tony BarnstonThis post originally appeared on Climate.gov’s ENSO blog. Reproduced with permission.  One of my responsibilities as the lead ENSO forecaster at IRI is to judge how well the forecasts have matched reality. One way I do this is I go back through the archived forecasts and make graphics that compare the forecasts […]

Flexible Forecasts: Responding to User Needs

Innovative flexible temperature and precipitation forecasts are among a broad suite of tools available as part of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society’s Map Rooms. How are these forecasts used, and what makes them “flexible”? Flexible forecasts offer an alternative to traditional three-category, or tercile, climate forecast maps, which indicate the probability that temperatures or rainfall […]

Why do ENSO Forecasts Use Probabilities?

By IRI Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston This post originally appeared on Climate.gov’s ENSO blog. Reproduced with permission.  Many people are interested in knowing which ENSO category (La Niña, neutral or El Niño) is expected by the climate experts, just as they might want to know the weather forecast for tomorrow. They usually prefer a simple […]

Climate Forecasts: A Vital Tool for Policymakers

Our friends at the Center for International Earth Science Information Network have written a nice post that explains how IRI’s seasonal climate forecasts have been for decision making, focusing on a particular case in Uruguay. In December 2010, reports showed that many areas of Uruguay were headed for drought. IRI’s seasonal precipitation forecast map issued in November […]

Democratizing Seasonal Forecasts in Latin America

Farmers in Senegal Use Forecasts to Combat Climate Risks

Climate in Africa’s Sahel region varies dramatically from one year to the next and often threatens farmers’ livelihoods. In Kaffrine, Senegal, the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, the Senegalese National Meteorological Agency, the country’s agriculture extension service, the Earth Institute’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society and many farmers […]