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July 2023 Quick Look

Published: July 19, 2023

A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)

As of mid-July 2023, the previously weak El Niño conditions in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have strengthened gradually to a weak-to-moderate El Niño. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables are consistent with the weak El Niño, although atmospheric variables, particularly SOI, are currently in the ENSO-neutral range. CPC issued an El Niño advisory in July 2023, signaling the presence of the warm phase of the ENSO. Almost all of the models in the IRI ENSO prediction plume forecast an El Niño event during boreal summer, continuing into boreal autumn and winter, while weakening during the boreal spring of 2024.

Figures 1 and 3 (the official CPC ENSO probability forecast and the objective model-based IRI ENSO probability forecast, respectively) are often quite similar. However, occasionally they may differ noticeably. There can be several reasons for differences. One possible reason is that the human forecasters, using their experience and judgment, may disagree to some degree with the models, which may have known biases. Another reason is related to the fact that the models are not run at the same time that the forecasters make their assessment, so that the starting ENSO conditions may be slightly different between the two times. The charts on this Quick Look page are updated at two different times of the month, so that between the second and the third Thursday of the month, the official forecast (Fig. 1) has just been updated, while the model-based forecasts (Figs. 3 and 4) are still from the third Thursday of the previous month. On the other hand, from the third Thursday of the month until the second Thursday of the next month, the model-based forecasts are more recently updated, while the official forecasts remain from the second Thursday of the current month.
Click on the for more information on each figure.

Historically Speaking

    El Niño and La Niña events tend to develop during the period Apr-Jun and they
  • Tend to reach their maximum strength during October - February
  • Typically persist for 9-12 months, though occasionally persisting for up to 2 years
  • Typically recur every 2 to 7 years

ENSO Forecast

CPC ENSO Update

Published: July 13, 2023

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion issued by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis: There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter. 

In June, a weak El Niño was associated with above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). All of the latest weekly Niño indices were more than +0.5ºC: Niño-3.4 was +0.8ºC, Niño-3 was +1.1ºC, and Niño1+2 was +2.3Nearly all of the weekly Niño indices were at or in excess of +1.0ºC: Niño-3.4 was +1.0ºC, Niño-3 was +1.5ºC, and Niño1+2 was +3.3ºC (Fig. 2). Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies increased compared to May (Fig. 3), with positive anomalies below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 4). In contrast, the tropical atmospheric anomalies were weaker compared to the oceanic anomalies.  For the June monthly average, low-level winds were near average over most of the equatorial Pacific. Upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the western Pacific and westerly over the eastern Pacific.  Convection and rainfall were enhanced around the International Date Line and were weakly suppressed in the vicinity of Indonesia (Fig. 5). The equatorial SOI remained negative (0.5 standard deviations below average), while the traditional, station-based SOI was near zero.  Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weak El Niño.

The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 (Fig. 6). Forecasters favor continued growth of El Niño through the fall, peaking this winter with moderate-to-strong intensity (81% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ³ 1.0°C).  An event that becomes “historically strong” (seasonally averaged Niño-3.4 >2.0°C), rivaling the winters of 1997-98 or 2015-16, has an approximately 1 in 5 chance.  In summary, there is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (Fig. 7).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 Aug 2023. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

Download the PDF Version of this discussion:

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Season La Niña Neutral El Niño
JJA 0 3 97
JAS 0 4 96
ASO 0 4 96
SON 0 4 96
OND 0 4 96
NDJ 0 4 96
DJF 0 7 93
JFM 0 10 90
FMA 0 15 85

IRI ENSO Forecast

IRI Technical ENSO Update

Published: July 19, 2023

Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv5. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv5 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart. These two products may differ, particularly during ENSO events. The difference between the two datasets may be as much as 0.5 °C. Additionally in some years, the ERSSTv5 may tend to be cooler than OISSTv2 in the context of warming trends, because ERSSTv5 is expressed relative to a base period that is updated every 5 years, while the base period of OISSTv2 is updated every 10 years. In February 2021, both datasets were updated to reflect the 1991-2020 climatology period.

Recent and Current Conditions

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Apr-Jun 2023 season was +0.51 °C, and for the month of Jun 2023 it was +0.88 °C. The most recent weekly (12 Jul 2023) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was +1.1 °C, suggesting that the tropical Pacific is experiencing moderate strength El Niño conditions. The IRI’s definition of El Niño, like NOAA/Climate Prediction Center’s, requires that the monthly SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W) exceed 0.5 °C. Similarly, for La Niña, the anomaly must be -0.5 °C or colder.

The key oceanic variables are currently indicative of El Niño conditions, while atmospheric variables are yet not coupled to warm water over the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. For example, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Indices are in the ENSO neutral range (as of 15 Jul 2023, the last observed value of the traditional Southern Oscillation Index was +3.1), and the low-level easterly winds are near normal across the tropical Pacific Ocean. Upper-level winds are easterly over the western tropical Pacific, while westerly winds are observed over the eastern tropical Pacific. Above-normal cloudiness has been observed over the central and western Pacific Ocean, while near-normal convection is seen over Indonesia. In the equatorial Pacific Ocean, subsurface temperatures are currently warmer than average. Particularly, the equatorial eastern Pacific shows anomalously warm subsurface temperatures, leading to the substantially warmer sea surface temperatures there (as of 15 Jul 2023, the last observed value of in the far eastern Pacific NINO1+2 region is +3.4).

Expected Conditions

Note – Only models that produce a new ENSO prediction every month are considered in this statement.

What is the outlook for the ENSO status going forward?

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion released on 13 Jul 2023 by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS issued an El Niño advisory.

The latest set of ENSO prediction models from mid-July 2023 are now available in the IRI ENSO prediction plume. These are used to assess the probabilities of the three ENSO categories by using the average value of the NINO3.4 SST anomaly predictions from all models in the plume, equally weighted. A standard Gaussian error is imposed over that averaged forecast, with its width determined by an estimate of overall expected model skill for the season of the year and the lead time. Higher skill results in a relatively narrower error distribution, while low skill results in an error distribution with width approaching that of the historical observed distribution.

Based on the IRI-ENSO plume, the forecasts indicate a high likelihood of El Niño conditions persisting during the rest of the year. Specifically, during rest of boreal summer, autumn and early winter, the probabilities of El Niño range from 97% to 79% (Jul-Sep: 97%, Aug-Oct: 96%, Sep-Nov: 96%, Oct-Dec: 95%, Nov-Jan: 92%, Dec-Feb: 85%, and Jan-Mar: 79%). Thereafter, there is a rapid decrease in the probability of El Niño during the boreal spring time (Feb-Apr: 68%, and Mar-May: 55%). The second most probable category throughout the forecast period is ENSO-neutral, but with probabilities gradually increasing from 3% in Jul-Sep to 20% in Dec-Feb, 2024, further increasing to 31% in Feb-Apr, and 44% in Mar-May 2024. The probability of redevelopment of La Niña is almost zero during the forecast period. A plot of the probabilities summarizes the forecast evolution.The climatological probabilities for La Niña, ENSO-neutral, and El Niño conditions vary seasonally, and are shown by the lines on the plot, and are given in a table at the bottom of this page for each 3-month season.

Caution is advised in interpreting the forecast distribution from the Gaussian standard error as the actual probabilities, due to differing biases and performance of the different models. In particular, this approach considers only the mean of the predictions, and not the total range across the models, nor the ensemble range within individual models. At longer leads, the skill of the models degrades, and uncertainty in skill must be convolved with the uncertainties from initial conditions and differing model physics, which leads to more climatological probabilities in the long-lead ENSO Outlook than might be suggested by the suite of models. Furthermore, the expected skill of one model versus another has not been established using uniform validation procedures, which may cause a difference in the true probability distribution.

In summary, the forecast for the boreal summer and autumn shows a high probability (above 90%) of El Niño conditions, while the chance of ENSO-neutral conditions during the same period are mostly less than 10%. The continuation of El Niño conditions is forecasted to be highly likely during the rest of 2023, and early 2024, with the chances of a return to ENSO-neutral conditions increasing to about 44% by the end of the forecast period in Mar-May 2024. The chances of La Niña redeveloping is almost zero throughout the forecast period.

A caution regarding the model-based ENSO plume predictions released mid-month, is that factors such as known specific model biases and recent changes in the tropical Pacific that the models may have missed, are not considered. This approach is purely objective. Those issues are taken into account in the official outlooks, which are generated and issued early in the month by CPC, and which will include some human judgment in combination with the model guidance.

 

IRI ENSO Forecast Histogram Image
Season La Niña Neutral El Niño
JAS 0 3 97
ASO 0 4 96
SON 0 4 96
OND 0 5 95
NDJ 0 8 92
DJF 1 14 85
JFM 1 20 79
FMA 1 31 68
MAM 1 44 55

ENSO Forecast

IRI Model-Based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast

Published: July 19, 2023

A purely objective ENSO probability forecast, based on regression, using as input the model predictions from the plume of dynamical and statistical forecasts shown in the ENSO Predictions Plume. Each of the forecasts is weighted equally. It is updated near or just after the middle of the month, using forecasts from the plume models that are run in the first half of the month. It does not use any human interpretation or judgment. This is updated on the third Thursday of the month.

IRI ENSO Forecast Histogram Image

Season La Niña Neutral El Niño
JAS 0 3 97
ASO 0 4 96
SON 0 4 96
OND 0 5 95
NDJ 0 8 92
DJF 1 14 85
JFM 1 20 79
FMA 1 31 68
MAM 1 44 55

ENSO Forecast

CPC Official Probabilistic ENSO Forecast

Published: July 13, 2023

The official CPC ENSO probability forecast, based on a consensus of CPC and IRI forecasters. It is updated during the first half of the month, in association with the official CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion. It is based on observational and predictive information from early in the month and from the previous month. It uses human judgment in addition to model output, while the forecast shown in the Model-Based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast relies solely on model output. This is updated on the second Thursday of every month.

NOAA?CPC ENSO Forecast Image
NOAA/CPC ENSO Forecast Graphic, courtesy of NOAA/CPC
Season La Niña Neutral El Niño
JJA 0 3 97
JAS 0 4 96
ASO 0 4 96
SON 0 4 96
OND 0 4 96
NDJ 0 4 96
DJF 0 7 93
JFM 0 10 90
FMA 0 15 85

ENSO Forecast

IRI ENSO Predictions Plume

Published: July 19, 2023

Note on interpreting model forecasts

The following graph and table show forecasts made by dynamical and statistical models for SST in the Nino 3.4 region for nine overlapping 3-month periods. Note that the expected skills of the models, based on historical performance, are not equal to one another. The skills also generally decrease as the lead time increases. Thirdly, forecasts made at some times of the year generally have higher skill than forecasts made at other times of the year--namely, they are better when made between June and December than when they are made between February and May. Differences among the forecasts of the models reflect both differences in model design, and actual uncertainty in the forecast of the possible future SST scenario.

Interactive Chart

You can highlight a specific model by hovering over it either on the chart or the legend. Selecting An item on the legend will toggle the visibility of the model on the page. You can also select DYN MODELS or STAT MODELS to toggle them all at once. Clicking on the "burger" menu above the legend will give you options to download the image or expand to full screen. If you have any feedback on this new feature, please let us know at webmaster@iri.columbia.edu.

List of Models Used

Forecast SST Anomalies (deg C) in the Nino 3.4 Region

Seasons (2023 – 2024)
Model JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM
Dynamical Models
AUS-ACCESS 1.93 2.23 2.40 2.53
BCC_CSM11m 1.24 1.49 1.61 1.69 1.75 1.74 1.64 1.47 1.30
CMC CANSIP 1.40 1.55 1.57 1.61 1.61 1.56 1.46 1.29 1.01
COLA CCSM4 1.50 1.73 1.86 1.94 1.94 1.85 1.70 1.52 1.36
CS-IRI-MM 1.05 1.20 1.37 1.51 1.51 1.47
DWD 1.10 1.22 1.30 1.40
ECMWF 1.67 1.89 2.06 2.15 2.17
GFDL SPEAR 1.39 1.56 1.71 1.84 1.97 1.97 1.84 1.62 1.32
IOCAS ICM 1.39 1.38 1.37 1.32 1.29 1.23 1.09 0.87 0.57
JMA 1.23 1.47 1.67 1.76 1.75
KMA 1.87 2.09 2.17 2.24
LDEO 1.09 1.18 1.32 1.42 1.27 0.74 0.06 -0.34 -0.42
MetFRANCE 1.95 2.28 2.53 2.72 2.74
NASA GMAO 1.74 1.81 1.75 1.72 1.73 1.67 1.47
NCEP CFSv2 1.20 1.50 1.74 1.77 1.68 1.53 1.39
SINTEX-F 1.23 1.29 1.28 1.31 1.32 1.27 1.16 1.07 0.97
UKMO 1.44 1.61 1.72 1.82
Average, Dynamical models 1.437 1.617 1.732 1.809 1.748 1.503 1.313 1.072 0.874
Statistical Models
BCC_RZDM 0.83 0.84 0.91 0.91 0.85 0.68 0.54 0.39 0.28
CDC LIM
CPC CA 1.03 1.12 1.16 1.27 1.22 1.05 0.89 0.72 0.54
CPC CCA
CPC MRKOV 0.26 0.39 0.52 0.65 0.80 0.88 0.88 0.79 0.70
CSU CLIPR 0.68 1.01 1.34 1.67 1.50 1.32 1.15 0.91 0.66
FSU REGR
IAP-NN 0.87 0.79 0.68 0.52 0.31 0.11 -0.05 -0.17 -0.25
NTU CODA 1.06 1.19 1.36 1.51 1.55 1.37 1.13 0.95 0.85
PSD-CU LIM
UBC NNET
UNB/CWC
UCLA
UCLA-TCD 1.36 1.44 1.38 1.17 0.84 0.42 -0.02 -0.40 -0.67
UW PSL-CSLIM 1.13 1.23 1.33 1.39 1.37 1.25 1.03 0.78 0.54
UW PSL-LIM 1.16 1.19 1.15 1.06 0.96 0.83 0.65 0.42 0.20
Average, Statistical models 0.931 1.023 1.092 1.128 1.044 0.879 0.688 0.488 0.317
Average, All models 1.262 1.411 1.510 1.573 1.460 1.207 1.001 0.743 0.561

Discussion of Current Forecasts

Almost all models in the IRI ENSO-plume predict El Niño conditions that are forecasted to continue during the second half of 2023. El Niño remains the dominant category during the forecast period ending in Mar-May 2024 (97 to 55% chances). ENSO-neutral is the next most-likely category, with low probabilities (3-14%) in boreal summer and early winter, increasing to 44% in Mar-May 2024. The chances of La Niña are negligible. Based on the multi-model mean prediction, and the expected skill of the models by start time and lead time, the probabilities (in %) for La Niña, ENSO-neutral and El Niño conditions (using -0.5 °C and 0.5 °C thresholds) over the coming 9 seasons are:

Season La Niña Neutral El Niño
JAS 0 3 97
ASO 0 4 96
SON 0 4 96
OND 0 5 95
NDJ 0 8 92
DJF 1 14 85
JFM 1 20 79
FMA 1 31 68
MAM 1 44 55

Summary of forecasts issued over last 22 months

The following interactive plot shows the model forecasts issued not only from the current month (as in the plot above), but also from the 21 months previous to this month. The observations are shown up to the most recently completed 3-month period. The plots allow comparison of plumes from the previous start times, or examination of the forecast behavior of a given model over time.
Hovering over any single model will highlight that particular model in the chart.
Clicking a particular model will hide/show that model in the chart.
At the bottom of the plot, you can select which models to show in the chart: all the models, the dynamical models only, or the statistical models only.

Notes on the data 

Only models producing forecasts on a monthly basis are included. This means that some models whose forecasts appear in the Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin (produced by COLA) do not appear in the table.

Once an IRI ENSO probability forecast has been published, the results stand even if a model reports an error and changes their data. When this happens we will update the plume with the model's correct values even though our forecast hasn't changed. What this means is that our forecast is always the same, but the underlying data may be different from what we based our forecast on.

The SST anomaly forecasts are for the 3-month periods shown, and are for the Nino 3.4 region (120-170W, 5N-5S). Often, the anomalies are provided directly in a graph or a table by the respective forecasting centers for the Nino 3.4 region. In some cases, however, they are given for 1-month periods, for 3-month periods that skip some of the periods in the above table, and/or only for a region (or regions) other than Nino 3.4. In these cases, the following means are used to obtain the needed anomalies for the table:

  • Temporal averaging
  • Linear temporal interpolation
  • Visual averaging of values on a contoured map

The anomalies shown are those with respect to the base period used to define the normals, which vary among the groups producing model forecasts. They have not been adjusted to anomalies with respect to a common base period. Discrepancies among the climatological SST resulting from differing base periods may be as high as a quarter of a degree C in the worst cases. Forecasters are encouraged to use the standard 1991-2020 period as the base period, or a period not very different from it.

Historical SST Anomalies Image

ENSO Forecast

Forecast Probability Distribution Based on the IRI ENSO Prediction Plume

Published: July 19, 2023

The plots on this page show predictions of seasonal (3-month average) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the Niño3.4 region in the east-central tropical Pacific (5°N-5°S, 120°-170°W), covering the nine overlapping seasons beginning with the current month. The predictions are based on the large (20+) set of dynamical and statistical models in the plume of model ENSO predictions.

  • Model Based Prediction Percentiles Image

    Figure 5

    Predictions of ENSO are probabilistic. The ensemble mean prediction is only a best single guess. On either side of that prediction, there is a substantial uncertainty distribution, or error tolerance. The second plot (Figure 2) shows the estimated probability distribution of the predictions, showing a set of percentiles within that distribution for each lead time. The distribution is modeled as a normal (Gaussian) distribution, so that the overall mean forecast represents the center, or 50 percentile, in the distribution. The overall mean is formed using equal weighting among all models. On either side, other percentile values are shown symmetrically, ranging from 1 to 99 and including some intermediate percentiles (5 and 95, 15 and 85, and 25 and 75). The plot enables a user to estimate the probability of the Niño3.4 SST anomaly to be greater or less than some critical value, or within some interval. If, for example, the 85 percentile falls at 1.8° C above average, the probability of the SST exceeding 1.8° C can be estimated at 15%. Probabilities for exceeding or not exceeding values not exactly on percentile line can be roughly interpolated by eye. The overall width of the probability distribution is derived from the historical skill of the hindcasts of the models, from 1982 to present, for the specific forecast start time and lead time. This method of defining the probability distribution represents one of two general approaches, the other approach being a direct counting of ensemble members within each of the percentile bands. This second approach assumes that the ensemble spreads of the models are true representations of the uncertainty. Individual model spreads have often been found to be somwehate narrower than they should be, although in multi-model ensembles this tendency has been shown to be milder or even eliminated.

  • Model Based Prediction Distribution Image

    Figure 6

    Figure 6, sometimes called a spaghetti diagram, shows synthetically generated prediction scenarios that are equally likely. Here, 100 scenarios are shown; any number can be generated for such a diagram. Each scenario is produced using a random number generator, combined with knowledge of the mean forecast and its uncertainty, as well as the amount of persistence of anomalies. The degree of persistence of anomalies is based on the correlation of prediction errors from one lead time to another. In other words, the individual lines are designed to show the correct amount of persistence as expected in nature, rather than jumping around more randomly from one lead time to the next. The uncertainty and persistence statistics are based on the set of 7 NMME (North American Multimodel Ensemble) models, as it is assumed that these statistics are approximately applicable to all of the models. Sometimes the “spaghetti density” may appear asymmetric about the mean of all the forecasts or outside of the 85 and 15 percentile lines. This is purely sampling variability, and would not occur if many thousands of such lines were plotted. But with that many lines, most of the plot would be too crowded to get a sense of the behavior of the lines near the center of the distribution. The main purpose of the diagram is to serve users who want to assess realistic individual scenarios of ENSO behavior rather than statistical summaries of the forecast like the percentiles shown in the second plot.

The CPC ENSO forecast is released at 9am (Eastern Time) on the second Thursday of each month.

The IRI ENSO forecast is released on the 19th of each month. If the 19th falls on a weekend or holiday, it is released on the closest business day.

All data from this website is covered under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. When citing IRI ENSO images or data, please use "Images [or Data] provided by The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School", with a link to https://iri.columbia.edu/ENSO.