Introduction


Part 1: Why Are Some Climate Variations Predictable At All?
+ Part 1: Sect 2
+ Part 1: Sect 3
+ Part 1: Sect 4
+ Part 1: Sect 5
+ Part 1: Sect 6
+ Part 1: Sect 7
+ Part 1: Sect 8
+ Part 1: Sect 9
+ Part 1: Sect 10
+ Exercise 1


Part 2: Using Models As Tools to Estimate the Predictability of Seasonal Climate
+ Part 2: Sect 2
+ Part 2: Sect 3
+ Part 2: Sect 4
+ Part 2: Sect 5
+ Exercise 2


Part 3: Seasonal Climate Forecasts: Basic Methods for Large-Scales and Downscaling
+ Part 3: Sect 2
+ Part 3: Sect 3
+ Part 3: Sect 4
+ Part 3: Sect 5
+ Part 3: Sect 6
+ Exercise 3


Part 4: Creating Information that can Better Support Decisions: Downscaling
+ Part 4: Sect 2
+ Part 4: Sect 3
+ Part 4: Sect 4
+ Part 4: Sect 5
+ Part 4: Sect 6
+ Part 4: Sect 7
+ Part 4: Sect 8
+ Part 4: Sect 9
+ Exercise 4


Conclusion
PART 1 : SECTION 9

The release of heat is also important as a forcing agent itself. Consider standing with a partner and holding a rope together. If you shake the rope, a wave travels along the rope and is received by your partner. The heating associated with the large scale ascent acts like a source for triggering atmospheric waves that travel into Mid-latitudes. These can be seen in the mean atmospheric anomaly picture associated with the mean El Niño SST anomaly pattern in the tropical Pacific (Fig. 1.9c).

Naturally, the analogy with the rope is a crude analogy, but expresses the idea of how changes in the climate in one location can lead to changes in locations far away - this idea in climate science is often referred to as teleconnections. Teleconnections are found between climate in different parts of the tropics (e.g. Fig. 1.8) as well as from the tropics to midlatitudes and within midlatitude circulations themselves, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Fig 1.8. Schematic showing three-dimensional ocean-atmosphere patterns across the tropical Pacific

Fig 1.9. Example of a mid-latitude atmospheric anomaly

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