Introduction


Part 1: Why Are Some Climate Variations Predictable At All?
+ Part 1: Sect 2
+ Part 1: Sect 3
+ Part 1: Sect 4
+ Part 1: Sect 5
+ Part 1: Sect 6
+ Part 1: Sect 7
+ Part 1: Sect 8
+ Part 1: Sect 9
+ Part 1: Sect 10
+ Exercise 1


Part 2: Using Models As Tools to Estimate the Predictability of Seasonal Climate
+ Part 2: Sect 2
+ Part 2: Sect 3
+ Part 2: Sect 4
+ Part 2: Sect 5
+ Exercise 2


Part 3: Seasonal Climate Forecasts: Basic Methods for Large-Scales and Downscaling
+ Part 3: Sect 2
+ Part 3: Sect 3
+ Part 3: Sect 4
+ Part 3: Sect 5
+ Part 3: Sect 6
+ Exercise 3


Part 4: Creating Information that can Better Support Decisions: Downscaling
+ Part 4: Sect 2
+ Part 4: Sect 3
+ Part 4: Sect 4
+ Part 4: Sect 5
+ Part 4: Sect 6
+ Part 4: Sect 7
+ Part 4: Sect 8
+ Part 4: Sect 9
+ Exercise 4


Conclusion
NOTE: As of Spring 2011, the exercises built for this website (originally created in 2002) are no longer functional due to the evolution of our server infrastructure that supports this and many other CCNMTL websites. We have left the instructional text so that you can see what was provided at the time as a reference. We regret any inconvenience and would encourage you to explore other tools such as the KNMI Climate Explorer that will allow you to actively explore seasonal climate prediction further.

Exercise 3

In this practical exercise, you will gain experience in evaluating the skill of a GCM prediction system, and compare it to a simple statistical method. You will be led into thinking about different measures to evaluate forecasts. During this course, the correlation coefficient between forecast and observed has been widely used as a measure to indicate the overall accuracy of a set of forecasts. An advantage of this is the wide use and understanding of the correlation coefficient as a statistical measure. However, this practical exercise will help you appreciate the importance of a range of measures of the forecast attributes (the issue of forecast evaluation is a broad subject and details are beyond the scope of this course).

Exercise 3 can be completed using Microsoft Excel or another similar application. You will need the datafile that was made available to you at the end of Exercise 2.

Download Exercise 3 (PDF Document)

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