Tag: Prediction

Climate Services: Two conferences on two continents

By Adam Sobel  This post originally appeared on Sobel’s blog.  Out this month is his new book, Storm Surge: Hurricane Sandy, Our Changing Climate, and Extreme Weather of the Past and Future.  I spent this past week in Darmstadt, Germany, for the Climate Symposium. This was a conference organized by EUMETSAT (one of the European space agencies) and the World Climate […]

How Good Have ENSO Forecasts Been Lately?

By IRI Chief Forecaster Tony BarnstonThis post originally appeared on Climate.gov’s ENSO blog. Reproduced with permission.  One of my responsibilities as the lead ENSO forecaster at IRI is to judge how well the forecasts have matched reality. One way I do this is I go back through the archived forecasts and make graphics that compare the forecasts […]

Study: El Niño’s Impacts on Water, Agriculture and Health

By Ben Orlove and Ángel Muñoz A new study examines the degree to which decision makers working in key sectors–agriculture, water and health–have been able to make successful use of forecasts of El Niño and La Niña. We find that these forecasts have indeed often been put into use, but only when two conditions have been […]

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IRI@AGU: Capturing ENSO Predictability

This post is the first in a series of Q&As with scientists from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society who will be presenting their work at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco December 9  to 13.  Many researchers focus on the ability to predict El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) […]

A River Runs Through It: Predicting Floods in the Midwest

Three of North America’s major rivers run through the Midwestern U.S. In the spring of 2011, major flooding in region caused an estimated $3 billion in damages and killed seven people. Although scientists cannot predict exact precipitation amounts for a given season, they can attempt to predict the odds that a given season will have below average, […]

Visualizing Malaria from Space

By Elisabeth Gawthrop, Climate and Society ’13 Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the impact climate variability and change can have on infectious diseases such as malaria, dengue fever and bacterial meningitis. However, in order to study the relationships between climate and health, researchers first need access to the appropriate kinds of climate data — an […]

Decadal Prediction: The New Kid on the Block

Climate scientists generally group future outlooks of the earth’s climate into two, and now possibly three, time-scales. First, there’s short term, or seasonal forecasting, which covers the next month to a year into the future. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society and other centers in the U.S. and around the world issue new […]

Climate Services: No need to wait for disasters to happen

This is the third of ten interviews with climate and development experts conducted at the International Conference on Climate Services, held at Columbia University in October 2011. Maarten Van Aalst is the Director of the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre. In this interview he talks about how the Red Cross is using climate information to mobilize […]

Welcome Back, La Niña

Well it’s nearly official: La Niña is making her second appearance this year. After a few months’ hiatus this summer, ocean temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific have dipped back below normal. Does that mean we’ll also see a return of the extreme global weather of this past winter blamed on La Niña? It’s possible but not […]