Workshop on Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Predictability of Extreme Weather and Climate
Tuesday, December 6 – Wednesday, December 7, 2016
Columbia University at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Campus
61 Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964-8000
There is increasing interest in extreme weather and climate events, both in terms of gaining a better understanding of the impacts of climate change, as well as toward developing early warning systems for better preparedness. Recent developments in sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction (S2S; from 2 weeks to a season ahead), together with the establishment of the WWRP/WCRP S2S prediction project archive of operational model forecasts, provide a new opportunity to better understand the mechanisms behind extreme events with large societal impacts (floods, droughts, storms, heat and cold waves), as well as to improve their prediction and early warning. Two weeks to a season is a key time range, both from the physical perspective of the climatic drivers of extremes (MJO, blocking events, sudden stratospheric warmings, land/sea/ice surface interactions), and for decision makers to have sufficient time to take preemptive actions.
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the Extreme Weather & Climate Initiative (Extreme Weather), and the WWRP/WCRP Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S) will hold a 2-day workshop on December 6-7 2016 at the Columbia University Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory campus in Palisades, New York. This workshop is intended for all in academia, government, and the private sector with an interest in understanding the latest science behind S2S predictability of extreme weather and climate, and in developing early warning products. Through a small set of invited talks, contributed posters, and discussion sessions the workshop will showcase the latest research on extremes using S2S models, and provide opportunities for networking and unstructured discussion.
A meeting of the NOAA MAPP Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Task Force (by invitation) will be held prior to the workshop on Monday, December 5th. A closed meeting of the S2S Project Steering and Liaison Group will follow on Thursday, December 8 – Friday, December 9.
Topics will include: the international S2S research initiative and data archive, operational S2S forecasting, private sector forecasts, sources of S2S predictability of weather extremes, and risk management perspectives.
The workshop will begin Tuesday, December 6 at 9:00 am and concludes on Wednesday, December 7 at 3:30 pm. Breakfast, lunch, and coffee will be provided on both days. Please join us for a poster session and evening reception on Tuesday, December 6 at 6:00 pm.
Registration and Logistics
Scientific program and list of speakers will be updated accordingly.
Andrew Robertson (Columbia University/S2S), Suzana Camargo (Columbia University), Adam Sobel (Columbia University), Frederic Vitart (ECMWF/S2S), Shugang Wang (Columbia University)
Livestream recordings of workshop presentations:
*Featured image: Hurricane Katrina, NOAA