ENSO Quick Look|
IRI ENSO Update / Prediction
Technical ENSO Update
IRI Probabilistic ENSO Prediction
ENSO Prediction Plume
16 June 2011
SummarySince the ending of the moderate to strong La Niña episode in early May, neutral conditions have prevailed. For the June-August season currently in progress, there is an approximately 9% probability for returning to La Niña conditions, a 84% probability for remaining in neutral conditions, and a 7% probability for the development of El Niño conditions. Neutral conditions are the most likely scenario throughout the remainder of 2011, although development of El Niño conditions or re-emergence of La Niña conditions cannot be ruled out.
In mid-June 2011, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly index warmed to values
indicative of neutral ENSO conditions (0.0 degrees C away from average),
while overall conditions below the ocean surface continue to be
slightly above average. Zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial
Pacific feature an average to slightly enhanced strength of easterlies, and
the Southern Oscillation Index is at average to slightly higher than average
levels. These observations indicate the presence of neutral ENSO conditions.
Because the atmospheric component of the episode was so strong
and long-lasting, however, some of the climate conditions associated
with La Niña may continue to a mild degree through late June.