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IRI ENSO Update / Prediction
Technical ENSO Update
IRI Probabilistic ENSO Prediction
ENSO Prediction Plume
17 February 2011
SummaryModerate to strong La Niña conditions have been observed since mid-August 2010, and have slightly weakened to moderate strength as of mid-February 2011. For the February-April season currently in progress, there is an approximate 94% probability for continuing La Niña conditions, and a 6% probability for returning to neutral ENSO conditions. Probabilities for La Niña conditions continue at 74% for the March-May season, and do not drop to below 50% until the April-June season.
In mid-February 2011, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly index continues at values
indicative of moderate La Niña levels (1.2
degrees C below average). Zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial
Pacific continue to feature stronger than average easterlies, and
subsurface oceanic heat content continues to be below average, but
to a somewhat lesser extent than during January. These observations
indicate a high probability of the continuation of La Niña
conditions for at least another one to three months.