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IRI ENSO Update / Prediction
Technical ENSO Update
IRI Probabilistic ENSO Prediction
ENSO Prediction Plume
20 January 2011
SummaryModerate to strong La Niña conditions have been observed since mid-August 2010, and continue as of mid-January 2011. For the January-March season currently in progress, there is an approximate 98% probability for continuing La Niña conditions, and a 2% probability for returning to neutral ENSO conditions. Probabilities for La Niña conditions continue at 88% for the February-April season, and do not drop to below 50% until the April-June season.
In mid-January, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly index continues at values
indicative of moderate to strong La Niña levels (1.7
degrees C below average). Zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial
Pacific continue to feature markedly stronger than average easterlies, and
subsurface oceanic heat content continues to be well below average.
These observations indicate a high probability of the continuation
of La Niña conditions for at least another two to four months.