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IRI ENSO Update / Forecast
Technical ENSO Update
Summary of Model Forecasts
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Summary of ENSO Model Forecasts
21 October 2004
Note on interpreting model
forecasts
The following graph and table show forecasts made by dynamical and
statistical models for SST in the Nino 3.4 region for nine overlapping
3-month periods. Note that the expected skills of the models, based on
historical performance, are not equal to one another. The skills also
generally decrease as the
lead time increases. Thirdly, forecasts made at some times of the year
generally have higher skill than forecasts made at other times of the
year--namely, they are better when made between June and December than
when they are made between February and May. Differences among the
forecasts of the models reflect both differences in model design, and
actual uncertainty in the forecast of
the possible future SST scenario.
Discussion of current forecasts
The set of dynamical and statistical model forecasts issued during late
Septembert and early October 2004 shows a range of possible sea
surface
temperature conditions for the coming 2 to 10 months (October -
November - December 2004 through June - July -August 2005). Many models
are
indicating weak El Nino conditions
over the coming several season. A few indicate moderate El Nino (e.g.
more than 1 degree C anomaly), and a few indicate conditions only in
the upper portion of
the neutral range. At the time of
preparing this, SST observations in the NINO3.4 region are indicative
of weak El Nino conditions at about three-quarters of a degree above
average.
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