Current ENSO Information
Summary of ENSO Model Forecasts
17 June 2004
Note on interpreting model
forecasts
The following graph and table show forecasts made by dynamical and
statistical models for SST in the Nino 3.4 region for nine overlapping
3-month periods. Note that the expected skills of the models, based on
historical performance, are not equal to one another. The skills also
generally decrease as the
lead time increases. Thirdly, forecasts made at some times of the year
generally have higher skill than forecasts made at other times of the
year--namely, they are better when made between June and December than
when they are made between February and May. Differences among the
forecasts of the models reflect both differences in model design, and
actual uncertainty in the forecast of
the possible future SST scenario.
Discussion of current forecasts
The set of dynamical and statistical model forecasts issued during late
May and early June 2004 shows a range of possible sea surface
temperature conditions for the coming 2 to 10 months (June - July -
August 2004 through February - March - April 2005). Most models are
indicating near-neutral conditions
over the coming several seasons. However, many of them indicate some
degree
of positive anomaly, and several of these are strong enough to be
considered
at least a weak El Nino.
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