Current ENSO Information
Summary of ENSO Model Forecasts
20 May 2004
Note on interpreting model forecasts
The following graph and table show forecasts made by dynamical and statistical
models for SST in the Nino 3.4 region for nine overlapping 3-month periods.
Note that the expected skills of the models, based on historical performance,
are not equal to one another. The skills also generally decrease as the
lead time increases. Thirdly, forecasts made at some times of the year generally
have higher skill than forecasts made at other times of the year--namely,
they are better when made between June and December than when they are made
between February and May. Differences among the forecasts of the models reflect
both differences in model design, and actual uncertainty in the forecast of
the possible future SST scenario.
Discussion of current forecasts
The set of dynamical and statistical model forecasts issued during late
April and early May 2004 shows a range of possible sea surface temperature
conditions for the coming 2 to 10 months (May - June - July 2004 through January
- February - March 2005). Most models are indicating near-neutral conditions
over the coming several seasons. However, many of them indicate some degree
of positive anomaly, and several of these are strong enough to be considered
at least a weak El Nino.
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