Current ENSO Information
Summary of ENSO Model Forecasts
15 January 2004
Note on interpreting model
forecasts
The following graph and table show forecasts made by dynamical and
statistical
models for SST in the Nino 3.4 region for nine overlapping 3-month
periods.
Note that the expected skills of the models, based on historical
performance,
are not equal to one another. The skills also generally decrease as the
lead time increases. Thirdly, forecasts made at some times of the year
generally have higher skill than forecasts made at other times of the
year--namely,
they are better when made between June and December than when they are
made between February and May. Differences among the forecasts of the
models
reflect both differences in model design, and actual uncertainty in the
forecast of the possible future SST scenario.
Discussion of current forecasts
The set of dynamical and statistical model forecasts issued during late
December 2003 and early January 2004 shows a range of possible
sea surface
temperature conditions for the coming 2 to 10 months (January
- February - March 2004 through September - October -
November 2004).
Most models are indicating slightly above average conditions over the
coming
several months. Some of their positive anomalies are not far enough
above
average to be considered an El Nino, while others are far enough above
to indicate weak El Nino conditions.
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