Current ENSO Information
Summary of ENSO Model Forecasts
18 December 2003
Note on interpreting model forecasts
The following graph and table show forecasts made by dynamical and statistical
models for SST in the Nino 3.4 region for nine overlapping 3-month periods.
Note that the expected skills of the models, based on historical performance,
are not equal to one another. The skills also generally decrease as the
lead time increases. Thirdly, forecasts made at some times of the year
generally have higher skill than forecasts made at other times of the year--namely,
they are better when made between June and December than when they are
made between February and May. Differences among the forecasts of the models
reflect both differences in model design, and actual uncertainty in the
forecast of the possible future SST scenario.
Discussion of current forecasts
The set of dynamical and statistical model forecasts issued during late
November and early December 2003 shows a range of possible sea surface
temperature conditions for the coming 2 to 10 months (December - January
- February 2003-2004 through August - September - October 2004).
Most models are indicating slightly above average conditions over the coming
several months. Some of their positive anomalies are not far enough above
average to be considered an El Nino, while others are far enough above
to average to indicate weak El Nino conditions--especially during the early
months of year 2004.
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