Current ENSO Information
Summary of ENSO Model Forecasts
20 November 2003
Note on interpreting model
forecasts
The following graph and table show forecasts made by dynamical and
statistical
models for SST in the Nino 3.4 region for nine overlapping 3-month
periods.
Note that the expected skills of the models, based on historical
performance,
are not equal to one another. The skills also generally decrease as the
lead time increases. Thirdly, forecasts made at some times of the year
generally have higher skill than forecasts made at other times of the
year--namely,
they are better when made between June and December than when they are
made between February and May. Differences among the forecasts of the
models
reflect both differences in model design, and actual uncertainty in the
forecast of the possible future SST scenario.
Discussion of current forecasts
The set of dynamical and statistical model forecasts issued during late
October and early November 2003 shows a moderately small range of
possible sea surface
temperature conditions for the coming 2 to 10 months (November - -
December - January 2003-2004 through July - August -
September 2004).
Most
models are indicating near-neutral to slightly above average conditions
over the coming several
months. A few models predict weak El Nino conditions during
this period.
| |
