Current ENSO Information
Summary of ENSO Model Forecasts
19 June 2003
Note on interpreting model forecasts
The following graph and table show forecasts made by dynamical and statistical
models for SST in the Nino 3.4 region for nine overlapping 3-month periods.
Note that the expected skills of the models, based on historical performance,
are not equal to one another. The skills also generally decrease as the
lead time increases. Thirdly, forecasts made at some times of the year
generally have higher skill than forecasts made at other times of the year--namely,
they are better when made between June and December than when they are
made between February and May. Differences among the forecasts of the models
reflect both differences in model design, and actual uncertainty in the
forecast of the possible future SST scenario.
Discussion of current forecasts
The set of dynamical and statistical model forecasts issued during late
May and early June 2003 shows a range of possible sea surface temperature
conditions for the coming 2 to 9 months (June - July - August through February
- March - April 2004). Most models are indicating either neutral or weak
La Nina conditions over the next 2 months. For October - November - December,
again, most models indicate neutral or weak La Nina conditions. Just
one model forecasts weak El Nino conditions.
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