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Current ENSO Information
Summary of ENSO Model Forecasts16 May 2003
Note on interpreting model forecastsThe following graph and table show forecasts made by dynamical and statistical models for SST in the Nino 3.4 region for nine overlapping 3-month periods. Note that the expected skills of the models, based on historical performance, are not equal to one another. The skills also generally decrease as the lead time increases. Thirdly, forecasts made at some times of the year generally have higher skill than forecasts made at other times of the year--namely, they are better when made between June and December than when they are made between February and May. Differences among the forecasts of the models reflect both differences in model design, and actual uncertainty in the forecast of the possible future SST scenario.Discussion of current forecastsThe set of dynamical and statistical model forecasts issued during late April and early May 2003 shows a range of possible sea surface temperature conditions for the coming 2 to 9 months (May - June - July through January - February - March 2004). Most models are indicating neutral conditions over the next 2 months, although a couple show El Nino conditions and a couple show La Nina conditions. For September - October - November many of the models forecast near-neutral conditions, although some of them forecast La Nina conditions and just one forecasts warm (El Nino) conditions.
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