Hazards/Threats

Africa - Algeria  Unusually heavy rain in the northeastern part of the country led to at least 29 deaths, though the death toll may actually be as high as 43 according to the IFRC. Heavy rains and flash floods affected 6 eastern provinces, including Mila, Souk Ahras, Tebessa, Oum El-Bouaghi, and Guelma, over the course of 10 days beginning on 21 August. (OCHA, IFRC)

Africa - Southern Africa  Two years of poor crop production, especially the staple crop in the region, maize, has contributed to the current food shortage, which has the potential to affect as many as 13 million people. Heavy rainfall and flooding in early 2001 reduced the food stocks available in 2002, when drought conditions contributed to another significant decrease in the maize harvest in the region. Poor management of grain reserves (as in Malawi) and controversial land redistribution practices in Zimbabwe are also blamed for exacerbating the problem. In a report on the food supply situation in sub-Saharan Africa, released in August, 2002, FAO/GIEWS said the crisis in southern Africa is greatest in Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Namibia, Swaziland, and southern Mozambique. The report reiterated that 13 million people in these countries will require emergency food aid until at least April of 2003. Only about 24 percent of the US$507.3 million needed to conduct an FAO/WFP emergency operation to provide food to 10.3 million people in the region had been pledged by early August, according to the report. FAO has also estimated that US$25 million in agricultural inputs will be needed for the planting season to start in October. Only 26 percent of this amount had been pledged by donors as of mid-August. The total cereal import requirement for the region for the 2002/2003 marketing season is estimated at 7.1 million metric tons.

Relief organizations continue to urge donor countries to quickly make food aid and other assistance available in order to avert a famine. In the worst-affected countries, such as Malawi and Zimbabwe, people have been resorting to a variety of coping strategies in order to survive. While the latest maize crop was still ripening, and as food stocks from 2001 declined, many in Malawi resorted to eating unripened maize or even grass to survive. Others have resorted to prostitution in a region where AIDS is devastating the population and loosening the social fabric. Children are often forced to leave school in order to work or help find food. In Zimbabwe, many workers who have been forced off farms, or whose own crops have failed, have begun working in small-scale mining operations. (IRIN, CARE, IRIN, IRIN, Oxfam)

The IRI seasonal forecast indicates an increased probability of continued dry conditions in Namibia, Zambia, and Angola as well, and an increased probability of above-normal precipitation in southern Mozambique.

Africa - Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia  Dry conditions in the Greater Horn of Africa are contributing to the continuation of drought in the region. Food deficits and the threat of famine have increased in Ethiopia and Eritrea as both countries have issued appeals for humanitarian aid. In Somalia, reproduction rates of sheep, goats, camels, and cattle have dropped greatly due to damaged pasture lands and difficult access to water. The IRI seasonal forecast indicates a slightly enhanced probability of above-normal precipitation in Somalia for the coming season.(IRIN, IRIN, IRIN)

Asia - Pakistan  Heavy monsoon rain in August flooded homes in slum areas of Islamabad. The director-general of the Pakistan meteorological office said that rainfall in August was above average in the north, and that monsoon rains were expected to extend until September 10th, which would be welcome news for farmers and reservoir levels. He indicated, however, that southern parts of Pakistan have received very little rain during the summer and remain quite dry. (IRIN, IRIN)

Asia - Iran  Flash flooding during August 15-16 in the northeastern provinces of Golestan, Khorasan, and Semnan led to 51 deaths and affected about 200,000 people in the region. Most of those killed were on a bus traveling between the cities of Babol and Mashhad. About 4300 hectares of agricultural lands and irrigation facilities were badly damaged. In an IRIN report, UNDP officer Hossein Jafari stated that flood events have been increasing in frequency in Iran in recent years. Calling floods the "number-one natural disaster in Iran today", he blamed the increase on poor land use practices. (OCHA, IRIN)

Asia - Nepal  As of mid-August, floods and landslides had killed at least 422 people, 173 were missing, 260,000 people had been severely affected, 17,000 houses destroyed, and there had been significant damage done to infrastructure. Additionally, according to the BBC, 41 people were dead or missing after a mudslide in the village of Bamti in the district of Ramechhap in eastern Nepal on August 21. As many as 45 people are believed dead after their bus was knocked into the Trishuli River on August 22 near the village of Mugling. (OCHA, BBC, OCHA, BBC)

Asia - China  China's Civil Affairs ministry estimated at the beginning of September that 1532 people in China had been killed in flooding in 2002, and most of those deaths occurred during the summer. About 110 million people had been affected in some way, more than 2.4 million had to be evacuated from their homes. Large areas of farmland had been destroyed, and 8.2 billion U.S. dollars worth of damage had been done (AFP). According to an OCHA report, typhoon #12 made landfall on the southeastern coast on August 5th, and contributed to heavy rainfall in Guangdong, Hunan, and Fujian provinces, causing at least 153 deaths, affecting 6.34 million people, causing damage to houses and farmland, and causing an estimated $540 million in direct losses. A BBC report, quoting the Xinhua news agency, noted that at least 70 people had died in flooding and landslides in Hunan province in the early days of August. In Yunnan province in far southern China, heavy rains during July and August killed at least 106 people, damaged 108,000 hectares of crops, and affected about 990,000 people. Farmland and cities all along the Yangtze River were threatened by the flooding river throughout much of August, but efforts to reinforce dikes along the river were reportedly successful at limiting the damage. (IFRC)

Asia - Vietnam and Cambodia  There were several reports of flooding in Vietnam and Cambodia in August, even though much of the region continues to experience drought conditions. As many as 44 flood-related deaths were reported for Vietnam. In Cambodia, 60 districts of 185 are experiencing extreme drought, and as much as 50% of the population has lost its rice crop. Less than one-third of the normal area of wet season rice cultivation land in a normal year has been planted this year due to the drought. Flooding along the Mekong in late August (in some reports blamed upon heavy rainfall in China), compounded the damage. (Govt. of Vietnam, OCHA, Reuters)

The IRI seasonal forecast indicates an increased probability of below-normal precipitation for the coming season (Oct-Dec) in this region.

Asia - India  Flooding continued in northern and eastern areas of the country (Assam and Bihar, and also Meghalaya, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Himachal Pradesh) in early August. About 549 people in total have died since flooding began in July. According to a CNN story, in the state of Bihar alone more than one million acres of maize have been destroyed and 269 people have died because of the floods. In the state of Assam, about one quarter of the 26 million population was estimated to be homeless. In the state of Madhya Pradesh, a village was flooded when a dam broke after five days of heavy rainfall. Although about 18,000 people were evacuated to safer ground, twenty-five people are believed to have drowned in the flood. (OCHA, OCHA, CNN)

Europe - Central and Eastern Europe  Heavy rainfall across Central and Eastern Europe in mid-August resulted in floods which caused 108 deaths and an estimated US$19.6 billion in damage. The flooding hit communities in Germany, the Czech Republic, Austria, Russia, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania with areas along the Danube, Elbe, and Vltava Rivers being most affected. The railroads were greatly affected by approximately US$980 million in damge. Train service between Berlin and Dresden was out for three weeks while other lines in Germany and the Czech Republic still remain closed. Germany has delayed a scheduled US$6.8 billion tax cut to help pay for the damage. There was significant damage to 14th century architecture and historical treasures in Prague. Floods struck the Black Sea coast with little warning sweeping vacationers and infrastructure into the sea. (OCHA, IFRC, BBC, AFP, CNN)

Asia - Nepal  Floods in 46 of the Nepal's 75 districts have lead to outbreaks of waterborne diseases such as typhoid, dysentery and diarrhea. (IFRC)

Asia - Singapore  Hot and wet weather associated with the current El Niño event is being blamed on the rise in dengue cases in Singapore. An average of 440 cases per month have been reported since June, compared to 318 over the same period last year (2001). Three deaths were reported in June and July. (Reuters)

Asia - China  Recent humid weather in Guangzhou is believed to have contributed to an outbreak of conjunctivitis, also known as "pink eye". More than 60 patients have been treated for the infection in Guangzhou, and in China's southern Hainan province, more than 7000 people are infected with the disease. (The China Daily)

Asia - India  Over 200 people have died and more than 600 are ill from Japanese Encephalitis in India's northeastern state of Assam. Receding flood waters created ideal breeding grounds for the mosquitoes that spread the encephalitis. (Reuters, ProMED-Port)

Asia - Bangladesh  A dengue outbreak in Bangladesh has left 41 dead and more than 3000 ill. A dry spell following days of rain have provided ideal conditions for the dengue-carrying mosquitoes. Over 30,000 people have been affected by waterborne diseases due to previous flooding. (Daily Star, ProMED, IFRC)

Australia - Australia  A significant increase in the number of cases of Ross River virus has been reported in Tasmania this year. So far, 118 people have been infected by the mosquito-borne disease, compared to 13 last year (2001) and 8 cases in 2000. The rise in cases is being blamed on unusually high rainfall last spring and summer. (ProMED)

North America - United States  A mild winter and hot summer, in conjunction with dry periods followed by wet conditions, are believed to have contributed to the significant increase in West Nile Virus cases in the United States this year. To date, over 900 human cases have been confirmed, including 43 deaths. (CNN, ProMED, ProMED)

Africa - West Africa  Extremely dry conditions continued into August in Senegal, Mauritania, Niger, and The Gambia. Planting had to be delayed because of the late arrival of rainfall in Niger and the country's national early warning and disaster management service reported on food insecurity in some places. In Mauritania, the drought has affected livestock and crops- 40% to 90% crop losses have been estimated, depending on how much precipitation the area receives during the remainder of the rainfall season. The Gambian government declared 2002/2003 "a year of crop failure and food shortage". (IRIN, IRIN, BBC, IRIN, IRIN)

The IRI seasonal forecast indicates a slightly enhanced probability of above-normal precipitation for the remainder of the rainy season, particularly in the southern-most portions of West Africa.

Asia - Sri Lanka  Drought continued in Sri Lanka in July and August. Water supply systems are operating at low capacity and the lack of drinking water is posing a health risk. Because irrigation systems and wells are short of water, there is currently a risk of large-scale crop losses. (OCHA) The evolving El Niņo may bring some relief in the next few months as the IRI seasonal forecast indicates a greater than normal likelihood of above-normal precipitation.

Asia - China  According to AP, quoting Xinhua, in Hebei province 900,000 people and one-third of the region's farmland is experiencing water shortages. Additionally, 163,000 acres of crops have failed and about 210,000 head of livestock have been affected. According to the IFRC, there were also bush fires in inner Mongolia for 20 days in August, said to be the worst in 53 years. Quoting the official China Daily, AFP reported that Shandong province has received only about half of its normal rainfall, and reservoir levels are about half of their normal capacity. In spite of the dry conditions, the August 30th FAS Global Crop Watch classified the condition of the corn crop on the North China Plain as "Good", with production this year estimated to be 125 MT, an increase from last year's 114 MT.

Asia - India  Although there was good rainfall in central India, the drought continued to affect crops, drinking water, and hydropower in August. According to a 12 August OCHA report, drought continued in 12 Indian states, particularly, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi. In Orissa state, crops, livestock, and fisheries have all been severely affected. The Indian government is now distributing monetary aid to the most affected states. According to a 21 August AFP report, India's federal government had announced relief packages worth $250 million. Reuters gave a summary of the Reserve Bank of India annual report released on August 30th, which indicated that the country was unlikely to meet its GDP growth target of 6.0 to 6.5 percent by March 2003, due in large part to the poor monsoon rains in July, which is expected to badly damage agricultural output this year. The FAS Global Crop Watch characterized the current condition of the maturing Indian rice crop as "Fair", and estimated that this year's production will be about 80.0 MT, down from last year's 91.6 MT. According to the Reuters story, agriculture accounts for about 25% of India's GDP and employs about 70% of the population.

Australia - Australia  Drought conditions persisted in Australia where Treasurer Peter Costello reported that the drought is a major threat to the economy. Australia's wheat crop, currently in its vegetative stage, is classified as being in "Fair/Poor" condition by the FAS as the estimated production of the crop is 20% less than that of last year. New South Wales officials have warned of the prospect of a total wheat crop failure in their state. (FAS, MM-online newspaper)

Central America - El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua  The World Food Programme (WFP) reported that a lack of rain again this summer has "destroyed crops from the first planting season (May-August) and, in some cases, is discouraging families from planting for the second harvest (September-December)". As in the case of the severe drought last summer, the countries most affected this year are Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala. According to the WFP report, no rain has fallen in Honduras since June 24th and 80-100% of the corn crop in that country has been destroyed. Large crop losses were also reported in El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Guatemala. Although rainfall deficits do not appear to be as severe this year compared to last, WFP has begun delivering emergency food supplies to families in the region. (WFP)

Dry conditions may continue the next few months as the IRI seasonal forecast for the region indicates an enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation.

North America - Canada  Wheat and barley crops are expected to reach 28- and 34-year lows, respectively, due to continued drought conditions. The Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) pulled out of the world grain market because of concerns over tight supplies. FAS Global Crop Watch classified Canada's maturing barley crop as "Fair/Poor" with the current production estimated to be 21% less than last year. (FAS)

North America - Northeastern United States  The northeastern United States experienced a heat wave in mid-August that pushed electricity demand to record-breaking levels. (PMA)