Contributions to this page were made by IRI researchers Dr. A. Amissah-Arthur (Agriculture), Dr. K. Broad (Fisheries), Dr. M. Hopp (Health), Dr. B. Lyon (Energy), Dr. A. Seth (Hazards) and Dr. L. Zubair (Water Resources).

Hazards/Threats

Afghanistan Refugees in Northern Afghanistan have been severely affected by a cold wave and 260 persons have died within refugee camps. The UN estimates that up to 600,000 Afghans have been displaced or been made refugees between last year and this year to date. Following his recent mission to Afghanistan and Pakistan, UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Kenzo Oshima said about one million Afghans were at risk of famine. Without the prompt delivery of aid, he said, a humanitarian catastrophe could ensue. (UNRC; ReliefWeb)

Mozambique and Malawi Continuous heavy rain across southern Africa has placed enormous pressure on Mozambique's largest hydro-electric dam, the Cahora Bassa. The number displaced by flooding has been estimated at 80,000, although the flood waters are rising more gradually than during last year's floods. In Malawi heavy rains and flooding has displaced 200,000 and led to 5 fatalities in the South. The government has declared 13 of the 27 districts of the country as disaster zones. (OXFAM; OCHA; OCHA)

Indonesia Heavy rainfalls in Indonesia have led to flooding and landslides in Java. The Indonesian meteorological agency reported that the heavy downpours threatened Bogor, Jatiwangi, North-Central Sulawesi, Gorontalo and Lombok. (UNRC)

East Africa According to the UN World Food Programme (WFP) more than four million Kenyans are in need of food aid, as severe drought conditions continue across large parts of the country after another poor and erratic rainy season. Hopes for recovery were dashed when the recent short-rains season (October to December) came one month late, and was insufficient to alleviate the effects of prevailing drought. These erratic rains have created a varied picture across the country, with some areas in the south receiving heavy downpours resulting in floods, and other areas receiving little or no rains. Although there are improved harvest prospects in Western Kenya, Southern Rift Valley Province and in some marginal agricultural areas, there was no significant improvement for the pastoral and agro-pastoral areas in the north. (WFP; OCHA)

Bolivia Heavy rains have been falling over most of Bolivia since December 2000 causing floods and landslides. The Government declared almost half the country a natural disaster area after several weeks of floods. The death toll has risen to 33 people and over 1,000 families were evacuated due to loss of their houses. The National Civil Defense Service (SENADECI) reports 39,560 families (some 197,800 people) affected by floods and preceding drought. Crop failure has affected more than 100,000 hectares. The government is concerned with possible outbreaks of dengue, cholera and malaria. (WFP; IFRC)

Health

Australia More than 140 residents of the Northern Territory have been infected with the Ross River virus. Symptoms include chronic fatigue, extremely painful joints and a rash. Health authorities caution that more infections could occur as flooding continues to affect the Territory. (ProMED)

Murray Valley Encephalitis (MVE) has been confirmed in two residents of Alice Springs in the Northern Territory. This potentially fatal mosquito-borne viral disease has also been confirmed in a Queensland child. The typical MVE symptoms include severe headache, high fever, drowsiness, tremor, and may progress to delirium and coma. Due to continuing rains and high numbers of mosquitoes, the risk of MVE transmission will likely continue for at least the next two months in the Northern Territory, northwest Western Australia, western Queensland and western New South Wales. People are advised to take precautions against being bitten by mosquitoes. (ProMED; ProMED)

United Kingdon Freezing weather conditions have possibly contributed to the spread of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) by providing appropriate conditions for the virus causing FMD to survive in the soil and air, on buildings and on the clothing of farm workers, thus allowing it to be propagated more easily. The FMD virus survives well in cold, even sub-zero temperatures, and prefers humid air and the relative darkness of cloud cover. High winds and rain, snow and sleet can assist the transmission of the virus, which lodges in water droplets. (ProMED)

Bolivia Following heavy rains and flooding, the Bolivian government has declared a national health emergency with the eruption of several epidemics in affected towns. A 12 percent increase in acute respiratory infections and a 10 percent increase in gastrointestinal infections, from the previous year, have resulted from flood contaminated drinking water. Over 1000 cases of malaria have also been reported and outbreaks of the mosquito-borne dengue fever are a potential threat to flood victims. (ProMED)

Water Resources/Energy

Europe An abnormally mild European winter is leaving northwest European heating oil markets awash with unwanted product, according to energy traders. Excess heating oil continues to pour into Europe from Russia each month, but above-average temperatures have dampened traditionally high demand. (Reuters)

Agriculture

East Africa An estimated 18 million people are currently affected by serious food shortages due to the lingering effects of drought and conflicts. In Eritrea the food situation of nearly 1.5 million war-displaced and about 300,000 drought-affected people gives cause for serious concern. In Ethiopia, despite an increase in grain harvest, the overall food supply situation remains precarious. The number of people in need of food assistance is anticipated to decline to 6.2 million from last year's peak of nearly 10.2 million. In Somalia, 750 000 people are estimated to rely on emergency food assistance, reflecting diminished livelihoods due to a succession of droughts and insecurity. In Kenya, drought-induced food shortages persist with nearly 4.4 million people in urgent need of food assistance. In Sudan, serious food shortages have emerged in many parts due to prolonged dry spells; food prices have more than doubled over the same period last year. (FAO/GIEWS Food Report)

Afghanistan and Iraq In Afghanistan, despite recent beneficial rains, a very serious food crisis has emerged following two consecutive years of drought and continuing civil conflict with renewed displacements of thousands of people. In Iraq, two years of drought have decimated crops and exacerbated the already tight food supply situation. (FAO/GIEWS Food Report)

Asia In Asia severe winter weather in several countries is raising serious concerns over additional food emergencies. In the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, an already desperate food situation following a poor harvest in 2000, has been greatly exacerbated by the coldest winter in 50 years. Lack of heating and food through the Public Distribution System may result in an increasing number of fatalities. Similarly, in Mongolia, large numbers of livestock, which provide an important source of livelihood and income for a large section of the population, have died due to severe winter conditions and food assistance is urgently required in parts. (FAO/GIEWS Food Report)

South America Showers continued to provide adequate to abundant soil moisture for Brazilian soybeans. (JAWF)

South Africa Scattered showers helped stabilize filling corn and other summer crops. (JAWF)

Middle East Stormy weather increased irrigation reserves in the eastern Mediterranean. (JAWF)

Europe Unseasonably mild weather continued across the continent, favoring dormant and semi-dormant winter grains and oilseeds. (JAWF)

Southeast Asia Heavy showers caused flooding and benefited rice in Java, Indonesia, but caused more flooding in the eastern Philippines. (JAWF)

Australia Locally heavy rain boosted moisture reserves in Western Australia, while in the southeast, showers improved pastures. (JAWF)