Date and Period of Forecast

In September 2000, the IRI prepared a Climate Outlook for October 2000 - March 2001. Here we provide a subset of the September Net Assessment Forecast with observed rainfall percentiles for the same period for qualitative comparison. A complete formal validation of these forecasts will appear on the IRI website at a later date. The complete forecast and observation maps for October-December 2000, in addition to the current forecast for January-June 2001, can be found at http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/.

Uncertainties

This Climate Outlook is dependent on the quality of the sea surface temperature (SST) predictions. For the tropical Pacific, these predictions can be expected to provide useful information, but there is some uncertainty concerning the detailed evolution of SSTs.  Spread in global SST predictions is a source of uncertainty in the Outlook provided here. The procedures, models, and data used to derive this Climate Outlook may be somewhat different from those used by National Meteorological Services in particular regions and may differ from the official forecasts issued in those areas.

Regional Influences

The current status of seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasting allows prediction of spatial and temporal averages, and does not fully account for all factors that influence regional and national climate variability. This Outlook is relevant only to seasonal time scales and relatively large areas; local variations should be expected. For further information concerning this and other guidance products, users are strongly advised to contact their National Meteorological Services.

Precipitation Outlook

The Outlook for October-December 2000 can also be found at http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/.

Maps show expected precipitation probabilities in tercile classes. The maps indicate probabilities that seasonal precipitation will fall into the wettest third of the years (top number), the middle third of years (middle number) or the driest third of the years (bottom).

An outlook of climatology "C" (light grey) indicates equal probabilities in each class; i.e., there is no basis for favoring the forecast of any particular category. Areas marked "D" (dark grey) experience a pronounced dry season during the forecast period, typically receiving less than 15% of their annual precipitation or less than 5 cm total during this three-month period. Boundaries between sub-regions should be considered transition zones, and their location considered to be only qualitatively correct.

Ocean Conditions

Of relevance in the preparation of this Outlook were the near-average sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Near neutral equatorial Pacific SST conditions were in effect, October-November-December 2000. The SSTs of the tropical Indian Ocean were assumed to remain normal. Tropical Atlantic SSTs were expected to be above-normal during the first forecast season and were expected to return toward normal during the second season.

Methods

The following procedures and information were used to prepare this Climate Outlook:

• Coupled ocean-atmosphere model predictions of tropical Pacific SST -- particularly heavy weighting has been given to the NOAA /NCEP, Climate Modeling Branch coupled model
• Statistical forecasts of Indian Ocean and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature
• The response of Atmospheric global circulation model (GCM) predictions to the present and predicted SST patterns
• Statistical analyses
• Appropriate Regional Climate Outlook Forum consensus guidance.

Sources of information include ACMAD, COLA, CPTEC, CPC/NOAA, CMC, Department of Natural Resources (Queensland, Australia), NIWA, ECMWF, Indian Meteorological Department, PAGASA, Bureau of Meterology, and the South African Weather Service.