Hazards/Threats

Asia - China  Flooding and landslides were reported in the province of Jiangxi in southeastern China in mid-May. (May Precipitation Percentile Map) Climatologically, May and June are the region's wettest months. Five days of torrential rains (11-15 May) sparked the flooding along the Le'an River. According to the provincial meteorological department, 51 counties in the region experienced record-high rainfal on 11 and 12 May. The flooding caused seven deaths and US $53.5 million in direct economic losses, according to the government. (Xinhua, IFRC)

Torrential rains also reportedly triggered flooding and landslides farther west in the central Chinese provinces of Chongqing, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guizhou. According to the Red Cross Society of China, 46 people were killed and 4000 others were injured after heavy storms hit the region during May. In Chongqing, 42,000 people were left homeless and tens of thousands of homes were destroyed in 319 towns. Extensive crop damage and housing losses were reported in portions of Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guizhou provinces. Flood-related damage and deaths have also been reported in the provinces of Guangxi, Guangzhou, and Hubei over the past few months. (Reliefweb, Reuters)

Caribbean - Dominican Republic,Haiti  In late May, a low pressure area that formed in the central Caribbean Sea moved northward over the island of Hispaniola (sea level pressure animation) and produced heavy rain (pentad OLR anomaly) which caused destructive flooding and mudslides in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The most damaging flooding and landslides occurred in towns and villages along the border between the two countries (DFO). According to a 9 June USAID fact sheet, the Emergency Operation Center in the Dominican Republic reported that 414 people had been killed and 270 people were still missing. Over 15,000 people had been affected, 1,600 families had been displaced, and 3,000 houses had been damaged or destroyed. At least 393 people were killed and 274 were still missing in the Dominican town of Jimaní alone. In Haiti, 1,059 people had been killed, 1,600 people were still missing, and 153 people had been injured, according to OCHA. The OCHA report also indicated that 6,226 families had been affected, 1,698 houses had been destroyed, and 1,687 houses had been damaged. The IFRC reported that the South, West, and South East Departments of Haiti and the Independencia, Barahona, Bahoruco, Elias Piña, and Duarte provinces were affected the most. Crop and livestock losses in the affected districts have been large, and a lack of potable water has been a problem in the aftermath of the disaster.

The floods have come in the backdrop of recent drought conditions in the northern Caribbean, including Cuba and Jamaica (April 2004 Digest), Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. In early June, CARE released a report on the effects of ongoing drought in northwestern Haiti. According to the report, December 2003 to May 2004 precipitation was less than half the ten-year normal for the same period, and planting rains in March-April 2004 were about one-third of normal. This has led to poor agricultural production so far this year, shortages in local markets, and has raised concerns about the next harvest in August (CARE). The latest IRI seasonal forecast for July-September 2004 indicates an enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation for much of the northern Caribbean, including Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic.

Central America - Mexico  Plentiful precipitation in northeastern Mexico, including the states of Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas (reference map), during spring 2004 (Feb-Apr 2004 WASP) has replenished reservoirs in the region which had become quite low. According to USDA, both rain-fed crops, including maize, sorghum, and cotton, and irrigated vegetables, corn, sorghum, and cotton have benefited from the rains. (USDA)

Africa - Kenya  Sections of the Coast, Eastern, and North Eastern provinces of Kenya (reference map) received rainfall amounts that were well below normal during the March-May long rains (WASP Index map). Areas of northeastern Tanzania and southern Ethiopia have been dry as well. Along the coast of Kenya and in northeastern Tanzania, dry conditions have persisted since the poor 2003 March-May rainy season. The resulting poor harvests and rising maize prices in the province have contributed to moderate food shortages (FEWS Net map) for about 240,000 people (IRIN). A recent Kenya Food Security Report released by FEWS Net in early June states that about 80 percent of crops in the Coast Province have "reached the permanent wilting point". Such localized climate impacts have had some effect on national production estimates. According to the same report, because of the heavy rainfall in April followed by dry conditions in May, the Ministry of Agriculture expects bean production to suffer. Estimates of the maize harvest have been revised downward to near-average (1993-2002) production levels as well.

Africa - Somalia  The long rainy season (Gu season) in northern Somalia, which typically runs from April to mid-June, has brought disappointing amounts of rain to the region. (May 2004 WASP Index) Though it was reportedly the best wet season in several years, the rains were very light and scattered. The United Nations has warned that the continuing drought situation in northern Somalia could develop into a "full-blown disaster" in the coming months if there is no more rainfall in the first few weeks of June. Four years of below-normal rainfall have had a significant impact on approximately 200,000 pastoralists in Somaliland and Puntland as up to 80 percent of the livestock herds have been lost in some areas. The remaining animals have been moved to the few areas with pasture, further stressing the pastoralists and environment in those locations. Estimates indicate that only 20 percent of the area in Puntland received enough rain to facilitate the growth of pasture, which will only last approximately two weeks due to the high density of livestock. The UN has indicated that more concerted efforts, beyond the short-term relief operations already being conduction by UN agencies and NGOs, will be required to meet the needs of the drought-affected population. Below-normal rainfall has also impacted crops in important agricultural areas in southern Somalia. The maize-producing areas in Shabelle and Juba Valley have been hit particularly hard. (OCHA, FEWS Net, FEWS Net, FSAU)

Africa - Lesotho  A preliminary February/March crop assessment by FAO and WFP warned that the production of maize, wheat, and corn for 2004 will amount to only about half of the poor levels of 2003. Very low soil moisture during April-October of 2003 (May-Oct 2003 WASP Index) kept farmers from preparing their land for planting. Additionally, government subsidized agricultural inputs that had been distributed in the past were not provided for this most recent season. The cumulative effect of the failure of winter crops in 2003 and low cereal production in the same year has led to food shortages. After the poor harvest in 2003 the government of Lesotho asked for food aid to help feed about 600,000 people (FAO). Given the likely state of the 2004 grain harvest, the WFP emergency operation through which this food aid was being distributed will be extended through the end of the year (IRIN).

Africa - Angola,Zambia  Zambia and Angola continue to feel the imacts of the flooding along the Zambezi River that began in late 2003 and early 2004. (April 2004 CID Report) A recent Vulnerability Assessment Committee report has indicated that 39,277 households in Zambia are in need of 9547 metric tons of cereal for the next two to four months. The areas west of the Zambezi that were submerged during the flooding suffered extensive crop damage with the largest losses reported in the Kalabo district in the Western province. According to an OCHA situation report, at least 14,000 households in Kalabo lost most of their crops. The districts of Lukulu, Mongu, Senanga in Western province and Chavumu and Zambezi in North Western province are among the other areas affected by the above-average seasonal flooding. Cases of seasonal water-borne and vector-spread diseases in these areas have increased considerably in isolated areas due to the deterioration of the water and sanitation situation, though in most places, the number of people suffering from diarrheal diseases and malaria has stabilized. There is also concern that the spread of the livestock disease Contagious Bovine Pleuro-pneumonia (CBPP) will accelerate as animals are moved from the plains to the upland areas. The Zambian government, Zambia Red Cross Society and OCHA have been tending to the humanitarian needs of the affected population, though physical access to the affected population remains one of the biggest obstacles. Water levels in many areas are not expected to return to normal until July 2004.(IRIN, FEWS Net, OCHA)

In Angola, the above-average rains in during January to March 2004 are being blamed for poor maize harvest prospects. The central province of Huambo was among those hardest hit by the rains. A near crop failure is expected in the southeastern and southern parts of the province, while yields in the central and northern areas are expected to be at least 35 percent below normal. Maize yields in northern parts of the Huila province, in southwest Angola, are also expected to be below normal. For example, farmers in the Caconda municipality are expecting a 75 percent reduction in yield. (IRIN, FEWS Net)

Africa - Africa,Africa: North,Africa: West  As in the two previous months, rainfall in northwest Africa in May (May 2004 estimated precipitation) contributed to favorable conditions for locusts (02 June 2004 FAO map) in spring breeding areas south of the Atlas Mountains in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and in northwestern and central Libya (reference map). FAO reported that an "upsurge" in locust populations occurred in May in northwest Africa and that swarms are likely to start moving south into Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, and possibly northern Senegal and western Sudan in June. They may begin to threaten early crops in the Sahel as the rainy season in the Sahel typically runs between June and September. As the swarms move south, depending upon the distribution of rainfall, they are expected to become extremely mobile and difficult to combat effectively before breeding again (FAO). FAO continued to appeal to the international community to help fund the locust control efforts in the region before the outbreak develops into a plague. As of late May, about 2.1 million acres in northwest Africa had been treated with insecticides since October 2003 at a cost of more than US$40 million (FAO). In the Sahel, locust infestations have been reported in the Air Mountains of Niger, and swarms already in Mauritania had been observed moving southward in June.

The latest IRI seasonal precipitation forecast for July-September 2004 gives a slightly enhanced probability of above-normal seasonal precipitation for the far western Sahel, including northern Burkina Faso, central and western Mali, Senegal, Gambia, and the southern half of Mauritania.

Africa - Ethiopia  In a 20 May report on food security in Ethiopia, FEWS Net indicated that precipitation during the March-April "belg" season (April 2004 WASP Index) had been plentiful enough to benefit the maturation of short cycle crops and preparations for long cycle crops such as maize, sorghum, and millet (FEWS Net). The report suggested that good "belg" harvests were likely in central, south, and southwestern Ethiopia if the good weather continued. In spite of the prospects of a good "belg" harvest and an improved harvest last year, eight woredas (districts) in Ethiopia have Global Acute Malnutrition rates above 10 percent, including the Somali Region, where the rate is above 15 percent. Pledges of food aid remain well below the total requirements for the population in need for the remainder of the year, and only 57 percent of the required food aid was delivered during January-April 2004 (IRIN).

The latest IRI seasonal forecast for July-September 2004 suggests a slightly increased probability of below-normal precipitation in western Ethiopia.