Hazards/Threats

Africa - Angola,Botswana,Namibia,Zambia,Zimbabwe  Flooding along the Zambezi River is continuing to impact portions of Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe. (Feb 2004 CID Report, March 2004 CID Report) Water levels have been rising since October due to above-normal rainfall in Angola. Flooding began in February in northwest Botswana, though seasonal flooding in this area typically does not begin until May. Nearly 1000 housholds have been affected in the Okavango delta in the province of Ngamiland. Extensive damage to roads and infrastructure has also been reported.

Flooding began in many other areas during December 2003 and January 2004 and has recently become much worse with heavy rains during March. In Zambia, five western districts - Kalabo, Lukulu West, Mongu, Senanga, and Zambezi West - had been flooded as of April 2nd, affecting more than 4480 households. A more recent report indicated that more than 21,000 households have been affected by damage to schools, crops and infrastructure across the west and northwest. Flooding in these areas has greatly exceeded the normal seasonal flood levels of the Zambezi, due in part to above-normal rainfall in the area. According to the Zambia meteorology department, the districts of Lukulu and Kalabo have received 35 and 66 percent more rainfall than normal during recent months.

Heavy rains during March have also contributed to the worst flooding in the Caprivi region of Namibia since 1958. The districts of Katima Rural, Kabbe, Linyandi and Kongola have been among the hardest hit areas. Approximately 99 and 45 percent of the Kabbe and Katima Rural districts were under water, according to a April 8th report from the WFP. Current estimates indicate that 40,000-50,000 people have been affected, compared to the 12,000 affected people during last year's flooding. While seasonal flooding along the Zambezi in this region is normal, there are concerns of how this year's flooding will impact food security. Most of the families in the affected areas rely on subsistence farming and there is already chronic food insecurity in the region. (IRIN, WFP, IRIN, IRIN, IFRC, IFRC, AFP, UNICEF, UNOSAT, UNOSAT, IRIN)

Africa - Kenya  Two years of poor rainfall and increased conflict have been blamed for the food insecurity currently affecting 184,000 people in northwest Kenya. The Katilu, Lokori, Lokitaung, and Loirangalani divisions in the pastoral districts of Turkana and Marsabit are among the greatest affected areas. Preliminary results of a nutritional assessment estimate that the global acute malnutrution rate and the severe acute malnutrition rate for children under five years are 23.6 and 1.6 percent, respectively, in the Maikona and Loiyangalani Divisions of Marsabit, while those in Lokitaung Division are 34.4 and 5.4 percent, respectively. According to FEWSNet, malnutrition in the worst-affected pastoral households has been a function of declining food availability, exacerbated by chronic food insecurity. According to a drought management officer, the nutritional problem in the area has been exacerbated by the "inability of the land to recover from the effects of the last drought." Livestock are also feeling the effects of abnormally dry conditions. A decrease in the frequency of watering and an increase in the average trekking distance to water are contributing to the deterioration of livestock conditions. (IRIN, IRIN)

Asia - Kazakhstan  Heavy rains and waterlogged soils during March, which generally marks the beginning of the first of two climatological rainy seasons in the area, helped trigger mudslides in the Tien Shan mountains of southern Kazakhstan. Twenty-eight people were killed when the 1 million cubic meter mudslide swept away two buildings in the district of Talgar. (IRIN, Reuters)

North America - Canada,United States  Heavy rains during March contributed to flooding in southern Manitoba, Canada and portions of North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin in the United States. Most of the flooding is in the Red River Basin. Frozen ground and ice jams have exacerbated the problem, particularly in Manitoba where they forced evacuations in early April. (CBC) Approximately 1000 people were evacuated from the Peguis First Nation when the Fisher River flooded. Governor Hoeven of North Dakota requested an emergency flood declaration on March 31 to assist areas affected by the flooding. Approximately 679 housing units have been affected by the flooding in North Dakota. (RRBDIN) The flooding along Spring Brook has been called the worst such event in 40 years in Antigo, Wisconsin, while flooding across the region has caused an estimated USD 4.5 million in damage. (DFO, DFO Map)

Asia - Taiwan  Water levels in major reservoirs in southern Taiwan have reached record lows in March and April due to several months of below-normal rainfall. Water conservation measures such as water supply cuts to heavy users and farmland fallowing were instituted during the spring months. According to the Water Resources Agency (WRA), these measures may be renewed if inadequate precipitation falls during the monsoon season, which typically begins in May/June. In contrast, reservoir levels in northern Taiwan are reported to be near normal and are expected to provide an adequate supply of water for users in the north through the end of May. (Central News Agency, Taipei Times)

Caribbean - Cuba,Jamaica  The November-April dry season in Jamaica and the past year in Cuba have been drier than normal. USDA has reported that although food security on Jamaica will not likely be threatened, many small farmers may not be able to successfully grow vegetable crops for export this season. The government has formed a committee to monitor drought impacts on the eleven affected parishes, and the cabinet has approved $18.5 million dollars in drought aid (Jamaica Observer).

In Cuba, cumulative rainfall for May 2003 to April 2004 has amounted to about 84 percent of the long term normal and has been characterized as the lowest rainfall total for the period in the last ten years (Granma Internacional; WFP; Apr 2003-Mar 2004 WASP Index). Provinces on the eastern part of the island, including Las Tunas, Camagüey, Guantánamo, Holguín, and Granma, have been the most affected. Overall, reservoirs in the country are at 54 percent of capacity, and water supplies for cities in the east are threatened. The government is trucking water to as many as 50,000 residents. There have been significant losses of cattle and declines in yields of vegetable crops and grains. (BBC)

North America - United States  According to most drought indicators, much of the western United States continues to experience long-term drought conditions (NCDC). Many western states are in their sixth or seventh year of drought, and as of the beginning of April, the snowpack over large areas of the mountainous western states was below normal. March 2004 was the warmest March on record in Arizona, and the month was among the five or six warmest on record in most western states, while precipitation was well below average (NCDC). These above-normal temperatures have led to an early peak in snowmelt in many locations (AP). The Salt River Project, which supplies water to the Phoenix metropolitan area, has reduced deliveries to some cities by as much as one-third for the last two years. Precipitation and runoff into reservoirs in the Phoenix area have been well below normal for nine years in a row (AP).

Africa - Eritrea  The northern coastal region of Eritrea experiences a winter (November-February) rainy period termed the "bahri" season. The 2003/04 bahri rains were below normal, affecting crops and pasture in areas of the Northern Red Sea zone. Heavier rains fell near the end of the season in the last ten days of February and helped to improve pasture conditions (November 2003-February 2004 dekadal estimated precipitation animation). The food security situation in the country is poor -- about 1.9 million people currenly require food aid. (IRIN, FEWS Net, WFP)

Africa - Algeria,Mauritania,Morocco,Niger,Western Sahara  Conditions in March remained favorable for a continued increase in the population of desert locusts in northwest Africa. FAO has characterized the situation as increasingly serious. More swarms were observed arriving and laying eggs in breeding areas south of the Atlas Mountains in Morocco and Algeria. Swarms and bands of hoppers were observed forming in Western Sahara and northern Mauritania (FAO, map), and some significant damage to pasture, vegetable crops, and date palms has been reported (FAO Desert Locust Bulletin, 02 April 2004). Light rains during early to mid-March, and heavier and most widespread rains in the last ten days of the month (March 2004 animation of ten-day precipitation totals) were likely to encourage continued breeding. Green vegetation in northern Mauritania was also favorable for locust survival, according to FAO. The region experienced north winds during most of the month, but southwesterly winds near the end of the month may have helped transport locusts northward from Mauritania into breeding areas in Morocco and Algeria. Resources for locust control operations in Mauritania, including the application of pesticides, have been extremely limited, and FAO has issued an urgent appeal for funds for these activities (FAO). Increasing locust densities and breeding have been observed in the southern Air Mountains of Niger as well. By mid-March pesticides had been sprayed on about 10,000 hectares of land to control the locust population, but supplies are running short, prompting Niger to appeal for international assistance (IRIN).

Africa - Africa,Africa: Southern  The first half of the October-March rainy season generally produced below-normal precipitation in eastern areas of southern Africa, including the "maize triangle" of northern South Africa. In South Africa and neighboring countries, including Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Swaziland (reference map), the poor rainfall during October - December 2003 (3-Month WASP Index) either stunted or killed crops normally planted at that time, or caused farmers to delay planting until beneficial precipitation began falling in January. Good rainfall in February and March has allowed late-planted crops, including maize, to develop well in much of the region, and has allowed some drought-resistant crops, such as cassava, sweet potatoes, and cowpeas, to recover (FEWS Net). Farmers in the Matabeleland region of southwestern Zimbabwe have reported that good rains in recent weeks have improved the condition of crops such as maize, sorghum, and millet (IRIN). The area planted in maize this season in South Africa is estimated to be the smallest since the 1942/43 season, and yield estimates are below average. However, since maize yield potentials and harvest prospects have improved with the coming of beneficial rainfall, prices of yellow and white maize have begun to fall (USDA, IRIN).

With the approach of the end of the rainy season, the latest IRI seasonal forecast indicates a slightly enhanced probability of above-normal precipitation in a small area of eastern South Africa and Lesotho and central Mozambique

Australia and New Zealand - Australia  Locusts are damaging crops across large portions of eastern Australia. (APLC) The situation is of particular concern in New South Wales. The insects began breeding in the northeast after heavy rains fell during February and then migrated south to areas where alfalfa and oats had been recently planted. Many of these areas are also trying to recover from recent record drought conditions. For example, the oat crops devoured by the locusts in New South Wales were intended for lambs who are struggling from the lack of pasture due to the drought. The Australian Plague Locust Commission has been spraying swarm targets in Queensland and New South Wales, but more hatchings are expected later this year as rains in mid-March in central New South Wales and southern Queensland created ideal breeding conditions. These hatchings may coincide with the harvest of valuable wheat, barley, and canola crops in October-December. (CNN, APLC, Taipei Times)

The latest IRI seasonal forecast for the upcoming May-July 2004 season indicates an enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation for most of Australia.

Europe - Europe,Europe: Central  A poor 2003/04 winter wheat crop harvest in Central Europe has been largely attributed to poor weather conditions throughout the crop's growing cycle. Drought conditions during spring and summer in 2003 was reportedly the largest contributor to the poor harvest. Heavy rains during planting in October 2002 also reduced the yield potential of the crop, while an abnormally cold winter caused substantial winterkill (December 2002, February 2003 temperature anomaly). The 2003/04 winter wheat production was 20.8 million tons, a post-Communist low that fell well below the region's five-year average of 29.5 million tons.

Accoring to the USDA, the 2004/05 winter wheat crop is in much better shape, largely due to good weather conditions in recent months. While the 2004/05 crop got off to a slow start with heavy rains in September and October 2003, drier conditions in November and December 2003 allowed for additional planting opportunities. Above-normal snowfall, particularly in Poland and the Czech Republic, and above-average temperatures during February 2004 across the region helped minimize the amount of winterkill. (FAS/USDA)