Hazards/Threats

Africa - Malawi  The food crisis in Malawi continues to deepen. Flooding in early 2001 reduced last year's maize harvest significantly, and flooding in January and February of this year has damaged the current crop. Although some maize had already ripened in the southern part of the country, dry weather in March was said to be stunting the growth of the crop in central Malawi (IRIN). On March 14th, Malawi's Commissioner for Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation reported that around 100 Malawians had died from hunger-related illnesses since the beginning of the year. The scarcity of food and high price of maize that is available have forced some people to eat wild plants or unripened maize. Many schools have closed and large numbers of rural residents have moved into cities, leading to a decline in sanitary conditions and an outbreak of cholera. According to a March 5 OCHA situation report, over 9000 cases of cholera and 161 deaths had been reported. A March 7 BBC report cited a figure of over 300 hunger-related deaths given by the Malawi Economic Justice Network and said that 70% of Malawi's 10 million people were at risk of starvation. In late February, the government issued an emergency appeal for US$21.6 million, and relief groups such as WFP and UNDP have been working on an intervention plan. As of mid-March only about 60,000 mt of 150,000 mt of maize being brought in from South Africa had arrived, reportedly due to transportation problems.

Africa - Zambia  As in other parts of Southern Africa, poor growing conditions in 2001 led to the current maize shortage, and this year's production outlook is bleak due to the current drought. As of late March, WFP was feeding 1.3 million of the most vulnerable people in Zambia, and it was estimated that about US$11.4 million in aid was still required. (WFP)

Africa - Zimbabwe  FEWS forecast in a March 29 report that maize production in Zimbabwe for 2002 will be somewhere between 456,000 and 760,000 metric tonnes, less than half of last year's production and possibly one quarter of the previous five-year average. The same report indicated that the food security situation in Zimbabwe may be the worst it has been in 50 years. The maize deficit in the country may run as high as 1.2 to 1.5 million metric tonnes during the rest of 2002 and into the beginning of 2003. The report suggested that the prospect of importing the massive amounts of food necessary to offset this shortage will likely present a great challenge in terms of cost and logistics. Both the controversial land re-distribution policies of the government and the prolonged dry conditions so far this year are being blamed for the expected worsening of the maize shortage (WFP).

Africa - Southern Africa  Many countries in Southern Africa, including Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, are facing food shortages of varying degrees. Climate anomalies have played a role in at least the past two years by reducing the production of staple food crops, such as maize, in some parts of the region. Reports indicate that Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe are suffering the most acute food shortages. Dry conditions during the first three months of 2002 are expected to have the greatest impact upon this year's maize production in Zimbabwe, Swaziland, southern parts of Mozambique and Zambia, and parts of Botswana (FEWS). The current increased demand for maize in Zimbabwe appears to be having a significant impact on Southern Africa as a whole, namely by increasing the price of maize throughout the region. WFP reported on March 26th that 2.6 million people throughout Southern Africa were experiencing food shortages, and that number is predicted to rise because of the expected low maize production during the upcoming April-May harvest. Little drought relief is expected through September as the region is entering its dry season.

Asia - Northern China  One of the most severe dust storms in decades affected much of northern China around March 20th, forcing school and airport closings. 100 million people were estimated to have been affected by the dust, which appears to be the result of a combination of three years of drought and poor agricultural practices (BBC, BBC, BBC). NASA imagery of the event is available.

Central America - Guatemala  On March 19, WFP reported that it had approved a program to fight malnutrition in Guatemala, which was severely affected by the drought in the summer of 2001. About 31,000 farm families are estimated to have lost their crops during the drought. An OCHA report estimates that about 80% of the summer 2001 maize crop in the provinces of El Progreso and Zacapa was lost, along with 60% of the crop in six other provinces. The nutrition program will assist 155,000 people, including about 60,000 children under 5 years of age who are suffering from acute malnutrition. Guatemala already had the highest rate of chronic malnutrition in Latin America, but the drought has exacerbated the situation. 126 children have died of malnutrition since last summer, and WFP reported that about 6000 children needed immediate help. According to OCHA, rural families in the other drought-affected countries of El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Honduras will also continue to suffer from food insecurity over the next several months.

North America - United States  Fire officials have warned that the Southwest and parts of the East are very dry and a long, hot wildfire season could be ahead this summer. Plant moisture levels are critically low across the region. Rainfall in the southern Rocky Mountains is as little as 30 percent of normal and plants in some Southern California forests are as dry as they would be in autumn. Wildfires already have broken out this year in Arizona, Southern California and Colorado. In New Mexico, 28 homes were destroyed in a blaze last month and firefighters were battling another wildfire Wednesday. Meanwhile, on the East Coast, forest officials from Georgia to Maine are concerned about several years of scant rainfall. In the hardwood forests, leaf buildup on forest floors can become highly flammable. New England has had some rain in recent weeks, but officials are still preparing for a tough fire season. More information can be found at the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC). Sources - DRO, CNN

South America - Peru   Heavy rains have affected the departments of Tumbes, Cusco, Huancavelica and Arequipa in Peru, isolating nine villages and cutting off several main roads, including the Panamerican highway on the way to Tumbes. The Institute for Civil Defence (INDECI) was put on alert in Arequipa city (600.000 inhabitants) as the Chili river burst its banks, flooding dozens of houses. The three bridges that join both parts of the city are considered risk areas and one of them has been closed.(IFRC)

The persistence of warm waters along the coast could result in continued excess rainfall in the region.

South America - Ecuador  Coastal Ecuador has also been affected by heavy rainfalls since February causing flooding and landslides. According to a census by the Ecuadorian Red Cross 1,857 families and 709 houses have been affected in 16 locations. Initial reports say that seven people are dead and 18 wounded. The flooding has damaged roads and buildings, including a hospital. Drinking water has been contaminated due to the flooding and the prevalence of mosquitos is causing health problems. (IFRC, DRO)

The persistence of warm waters along the coast could result in continued excess rainfall in the region.

Africa - Southern Africa  An intense famine resulting from persistent drought in southern Africa has killed hundreds of people in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe since early 2002. At least 300 people have starved to death in Malawi, where a state of famine was officially declared on February 27, 2002. Source: ReliefWeb

Africa - Burkina Faso  The dust and heat wave have contributed to a meningitis outbreak in Burkina Faso with the death toll reaching 1,059 from 8,446 cases reported since January 2002. The spread of the disease is also being attributed to the appearance in Burkina Faso of the W135 strain, likely imported from pilgrims returning from Mecca after the Hajj. Menigococcal meningitis occurs during the dry season in the sub-saharan 'meningitis belt' that extends from Senegal to Ethiopia. Sources: WHO, ReliefWeb, IRIN, ProMED

Australia - Australia  An outbreak of the tropical disease melioidosis associated with earlier heavy rains in the northern Queensland tropics, including the Gulf, Torres Strait, and Cape York, has resulted in 12 cases and 2 deaths. The bacteria responsible for melioidosis, a lung infection which can spread to the heart, brain, liver, kidney and joints through the blood, is normally found in soils but may be brought to the surface during heavy rains. Source: ProMED

Central America - Central America  Roughly 870,000 people in Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Honduras are at risk of starvation due to a continuing lack of rain, combined with last year's drought and other natural disasters. In the hardest hit country of Guatemala, more than 73,000 children are believed to be suffering from acute malnutrition with 6,000 at risk on dying in the few months. Source: ReliefWeb

South America - Brazil  Over 317,787 dengue cases were reported in the first 3 months of 2002 compared to 153,148 cases reported over the same period last year. At this rate, there may be more cases than the 1998 record of 559,237 cases. There have been 59 deaths this year, which could exceed the 75 total deaths reported between 1990 and 2001. The state of Rio de Janeiro has been the hardest hit with 129,920 cases, a four-fold increase over the same period in 2001, including 1271 cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever, and 47 deaths. Earlier heavy rains and warm weather, ideal for dengue mosquitoes, are believed to have contributed to this outbreak. Source: ProMED

South America - Ecuador  Heavy coastal rains that began in February have driven more than 3000 Ecuadorians from their homes and brought malaria and dengue outbreaks. So far, 816 suspected cases of dengue have been reported, including 21 cases of the more serious dengue hemorrhagic fever. A decrease in rainfall starting in April 2002 will likely result in a further propagation of the mosquito vectors in the stagnating water. In Guayaquil there are an estimated 1.5 million water storage tanks, 70 percent of which are potential mosquito breeding sites. Sources: ProMED, ProMED

Asia - Taiwan  Reduced water availablity due to drought is affecting the semiconductor industry, which uses considerable water as part of the chip production process (BBC).

Africa - Mozambique  In early 2000, Cyclones Connie, Eline, and Gloria brought devastating flooding to parts of Mozambique. And again in the first months of 2001 heavy rains brought flooding which displaced people and destroyed crops. This year, prolonged drought during the rainy season, especially in the south, threatens to reduce maize, sorghum, and rice yields (IRIN). During much of the past year, market prices of maize in Mozambique have been well above average and continue to rise, possibly due to the combined effects of low stocks from the 2001 crop, and the greatly increased demand from Zimbabwe and Malawi (FEWS).