IRI Climate Digest
June-July-August Seasonal Forecast
Date and Period of Forecast
In May 2003, the IRI prepared a Climate Outlook for June 2003-November 2003. Here we provide a subset of the May IRI Forecast. The forecasts are updated monthly and can be found in their entirety at http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/.
This Climate Outlook is dependent on the quality of the sea surface temperature (SST) predictions. For the tropical Pacific, these predictions can be expected to provide useful information, but there is some uncertainty concerning the detailed evolution of SSTs. Spread in global SST predictions is a source of uncertainty in the Outlook provided here. The procedures, models, and data used to derive this Climate Outlook may be somewhat different from those used by National Meteorological Services in particular regions and may differ from the official forecasts issued in those areas.
The current status of seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasting allows prediction of spatial and temporal averages, and does not fully account for all factors that influence regional and national climate variability. This Outlook is relevant only to seasonal time scales and relatively large areas; local variations should be expected. For further information concerning this and other guidance products, users are strongly advised to contact their National Meteorological Services.
The Outlook for other regions of the globe for the seasons June-July-August through September-October-November can be found at Net Assessment forecasts.
Maps show expected precipitation probabilities in tercile classes. The maps indicate probabilities that seasonal precipitation will fall into the wettest third of the years (top number), the middle third of years (middle number) or the driest third of the years (bottom). An outlook of climatology "C" (no color) indicates equal probabilities in each class; i.e., there is no basis for favoring the forecast of any particular category. Boundaries between sub-regions should be considered transition zones, and their location considered to be only qualitatively correct. Color shading indicates which tercile class has the greatest probability of occurrence with darker shading indicating greater likelihood as shown by the legend to the right of the plots.
June-July-August 2003 Global Precipitation Probabilities
This forecast consists of expected probabilities of temperature in tercile classes. The terciles refer to the seasonal temperature falling into the warmest third of the years (top tercile), the middle third of years (middle tercile) or the coldest third of the years (bottom tercile). Boundaries between sub-regions should be considered transition zones, and their location considered to be only qualitatively correct. Color shading indicates which tercile class has the greatest probability of occurrence with darker shading indicating greater likelihood as shown by the legend on the bottom of the plots. Note:
The IRI is in the process of implementing new graphics for its forecast products. Currently, global maps only indicate (by shading) the tercile class with the greatest probability of occurrence.
Please consult the regional maps at Net Assessment forecasts for the probabilities of each tercile class.
June-July-August 2003 Global Temperature Probabilities
Of relevance in the preparation of this outlook is the near-neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific since April 2003, as the El Nino event of 2002-03 declined rapidly with SSTs at some locations dropping by 4 degrees C over the last month. The potential for development of a La Nina event later this year leads to considerable uncertainty in the evolution of climate anomalies in the latter part of this forecast, which has assumed conditions closer to neutral. As of early May 2003 equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) had returned to near-normal and are rapidly cooling toward below normal in the eastern/central equatorial Pacific; SSTs have cooled to approximately 1 to 1.5 degrees C below normal in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The SSTs in the central equatorial Pacific (near the dateline) are currently near 0.3C above average (down from 0.5C last month), and will most likely weaken to near-normal or below normal by July or August 2003 (see IRI Probabilistic ENSO forecast). Warmer than average SSTs continue to occupy much of the tropical Indian Ocean (SSTs). These are predicted to decrease slowly through the forecast period. Warmer than average SSTs currently exist in the northern and southern sub-tropical Atlantic Ocean, and also in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. The above-normal SSTs north of the equator are predicted to weaken more rapidly than those south of the equator. In spite of the possibility of developing cold tropical Pacific SSTs, the coupled ocean-atmosphere model, whose tropical Pacific SST prediction is used by the IRI to force the global climate models, is predicting near-neutral conditions for all four forecast seasons. (June-August 2003, July-September 2003, August-October 2003, September-November 2003).
The following procedures and information were used to prepare this Climate
- Coupled ocean-atmosphere model predictions of tropical Pacific SST
-- particularly heavy weighting has been given to the NOAA /NCEP,
Climate Modeling Branch coupled model
- Statistical forecasts of Indian Ocean and Atlantic Ocean sea surface
- The response of Atmospheric global circulation model (GCM) predictions
to the present and predicted SST patterns
- Statistical analyses
- Appropriate Regional Climate Outlook Forum consensus guidance.
Additional sources of information include ACMAD, COLA, CPTEC, CPC/NOAA,
CMC, Department of Natural Resources (Queensland, Australia), NIWA, ECMWF,
Indian Meteorological Department, PAGASA, Bureau of Meteorology, and the
South African Weather Service.