Hazards/Threats

Asia - Bangladesh  Heavy monsoon flooding in July and August, characterized as the worst flooding in 15 years, and additional heavy rain in September (precipitation anomaly map) has left about 10 million people in Bangladesh homeless and threatens as many as 1 million children with malnourishment in coming weeks, according to WFP and UNICEF. As many as 500,000 pregnant women and mothers are at risk of malnutrition as well. In total, about 1000 people were killed in the flooding this year; at least 450 people have died from diarrhea and pneumonia since the flooding began (Reuters, WHO). Recent estimates of the cost of the flood damage range from US $2.2 billion to about US $6.6 billion (AFP).

Asia - China  The flood season has wound down in much of China, ending months of heavy rain, flooding, and land slides across the country. (Climatological precipitation animation) Estimates from Xinhua indicate that these events caused 1029 deaths and affected 114.7 million people. Approximately 75 percent of the deaths were caused by mudflows and landslides. Other losses include 650,000 destroyed homes and 7.6 million hectares of damaged or destroyed farmland. Direct economic losses from the flooding and slides is estimated at US$7.8 billion. The greatest losses were suffered in provinces of Hunan, Hubei, Henan, Sichaun, Yunnan, and Zhejiang, as well as the Guangxi Zhaung Autonomous Region. While all of the losses were significant, they were actually less so than in recent years. In particular, the death toll decreased significantly compared to losses suffered in the 1990s, according to The State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters. Officials gave some credit to the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River, which is the world's largest hydro-electric project. The Yangtze did not overflow as much this season, compared to recent years. (Reuters/CNN, Xinhua)

The latest IRI seasonal forecast predicts a slightly- to moderately-enhanced probability of above-normal precipitation in much of southeastern China during November 2004-January 2005.

Caribbean,North America - Caribbean,United States  A record number of eight named tropical storms formed in the tropical Atlantic in August, and the active season continued into September (NCDC). Several storms made landfall and caused extensive damage in the Caribbean Sea and on the North American mainland. As many as 3000 people in northwestern Haiti may have been killed by Tropical Storm Jeanne, which affected the country from the 17th to the 19th of September. The majority of the deaths were in the city of Gonaives, which experienced heavy flooding and mudslides (OCHA, Reuters, IFRC). This disaster comes in the wake of flooding and landslides that affected Haiti and the Dominican Republic in late May 2004 (CID June 2004). Four hurricanes that struck the eastern U.S. during August and September caused enough damage to rank in the top six costliest hurricanes on record in the U.S. Total insurance claims from hurricanes Charley, Ivan, Jeanne, and Frances will amount to as much as $23 billion (Insurance Information Institute, Insurance Information Institute). Damage caused by Hurricane Ivan also heavily disrupted oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and reportedly contributed to recent increases in oil prices (AP).

Africa - Angola  Water shortages, brought on by a poor second half of the rainy season, enhanced tension and sparked recent conflict between rival ethnic groups in southwestern Angola. Although the provinces of Huila, Cunene, and Namibe, whose climatological rainy season occurs between November and March, received abundant rainfall in December 2003 and January 2004, February and March 2004 brought precipitation accumulations that were below the 10th percentile of the climatological distribution. (Feb 2004, Mar 2004 precipitation percentile map) Thousands of nomadic cattle farmers and 1.5 million cattle live in the region. As water shortages became more severe, farmers moved their cattle to the remaining few watering holes. High concentrations of animals in these locations increased the incidence of disease and cattle theft, which helped to spark conflict between the Muvakahona ethnic group of southern Huila and the Mucubal people of the adjacent Namibe province. These two groups have a long standing rivalry and the recent fighting between the them left four people dead. Drought emergencies have also been declared in Cunene and the central province of Kwanza Sul. According to OCHA, approximately 25,000 people are in need of assistance in these two provinces alone. (IRIN)

The latest IRI seasonal precipitation forecast for the November 2004-January 2005 season indicates a slightly elevated probability of below-normal precipitation in southeastern Angola.

Africa - Malawi  As reported in the September 2003 CID, below-normal precipitation accumulations during summer 2003/04 contributed to a poor harvest in Malawi. (December 2003-February 2004 WASP Index) The poor rains are also expected to impact the upcoming harvest. Non-irrigated winter crops are generally planted soon after the harvest of summer crops, therefore taking advantage of residual soil moisture. The summer rains were so poor, particularly in the winter maize growing areas in the south, that the remaining moisture was less than is typically needed to sustain healthy crops. The World Food Programme has estimated that Malawi's cereal crop will be 17 percent below the five-year average. According to FEWSNet, the improvements in food availability from the winter harvest for smallholders in the southern region will be short lived. The organization expects that the majority of households will start to rely on markets for basic food needs, even as the prices of staples rise beyond normal levels. As of mid-September, prices of maize in nearly three-quarters of local markets had increased by over 40 percent since August. Malawi generally does not experience its hunger season until January and February, but estimates indicate that 56,000-83,000 metric tons of emergency food aid will be needed from the present until the next harvest in March 2005. (IRIN, FEWSNet, WFP)

The latest IRI seasonal forecast for the November 2004-January 2005 season indicates a slightly enhanced probability of above-normal precipitation for northern Malawi.

Africa - Africa: Greater Horn  Millions of people in the Greater Horn of Africa continue to experience drought-related food insecurity after the height of the summer rainy season in the region, particularly in pastoral areas of Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and northwestern Kenya (FEWS Net). Although summer (meher) rains in the highlands of Ethiopia have been good this year, below-normal rainfall in southern and eastern regions of the country was detrimental to long-cycle maize and sorghum crops and to pastoralists. Because of recurring drought conditions about 7.8 million people in Ethiopia currently require food assistance (FEWS Net). Poor spring and summer rainfall, and dry conditions during much of September is expected to severely affect long- and short-cycle crops in Eritrea (FEWS Net). Although heavy rains in areas of northern Somalia in July helped to improve pasture conditions locally, the migration of large numbers of livestock into those areas resulted in over-grazing. Rainfall was well below average throughout the remainder of the country during April-July 2004, resulting in below-average cereal production (125,305 metric tons) in the south and continued hardships for pastoralists. About 1.2 million people in Somalia will need food assistance through April 2005 (FEWS Net).

Further south, in Uganda and Rwanda, precipitation during June-August was below normal, and the second rainy season started late, delaying agricultural preparations in Rwanda (FEWS Net). Continued dry conditions in northeastern Uganda in September are expected to result in below normal production of the region's staple crop, sorghum, during the current harvest, which will continue through November (FEWS Net, FEWS Net). In Kenya, the national government has been providing food aid to over 1.5 million people in drought-affected districts of the country, primarily in the north and east, since November 2003. WFP began handling relief operations in Kenya in October 2004 and has requested US$81.3 million in relief aid for Kenya through January 2005 (FEWS Net). Some areas of northern and eastern sections of Kenya have endured below-normal precipitation (12-month WASP Index) for the last three to four rainy seasons.

The latest IRI seasonal precipitation forecast for the November 2004-January 2005 season indicates a slightly enhanced probability of above-normal precipitation for much of Kenya, northern Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, parts of Uganda, and the southern tip of Somalia. A slightly elevated probability of below-normal precipitation is forecast for much of central and southern Ethiopia.

Africa - Africa: West  New desert locust swarms continued to form in southern Mauritania, northern Senegal, Mali, and Niger during September, but as the rainy season (climatology animation) in the West African Sahel nears its end, large swarms have begun migrating from West Africa back north into northwestern Mauritania, southern Western Sahara, Morocco, Algeria, and Libya (FAO map, reference map). The locusts have reportedly caused some crop damage, especially in Mauritania, where the infestation in West Africa was heaviest. (IRIN) Please refer to the latest update by the FAO for more details.