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IRI Climate Digest   November 2001

Climate Impacts - October

Contributions to this page were made by IRI researchers
Dr. M. Barlow, M. Bell, Dr. M. Hopp, Dr. T Kestin,
Dr. B. Lyon, Dr. A. Seth, Dr. L. Zubair

Hazards/Threats

North Korea Heavy October rains resulted in widespread flooding leaving over 60,000 people homeless. The flooding also damaged crops, stressing an already precarious food supply. The United Nations reported that, given constraints on North Korea's ability to import food supplies commercially, the country will still require outside food assistance in 2002 in order to meet demand. (IFRC, OCHA)

Vietnam Flooding in the Mekong River Delta continued in October with a tropical storm unleashing very heavy rainfall. Over 300,000 households are reportedly affected with over 2,900 destroyed. An estimated 1.3 million people are affected. The government of Vietnam is currently accepting international assistance to help cope with the floods (OCHA). Rainfall generally diminishes across the region during November with the onset of the dry season.

Central America Hurricane Iris struck Belize and northern Guatemala during early October with heavy rains and high winds destroying homes and crops, especially in the areas of Toledo and Stann Creek. Tropical storm Michelle impacted the region at the end of the month with heavy rains and flooding reported in eastern coastal sections of Honduras and Nicaragua. Much of Central America was affected by drought over the past several months and relief agencies have been active in both maintaining the food supply and assisting those affected by the recent flooding. (OCHA)


Health

Vietnam During October 2,408 cases of dengue fever were reported in over 29 cities and provinces in the flooded Mekong delta. More than 30,000 dengue cases, including 60 deaths, have been registered this year, a 69.2% increase over last year's case load. Source ProMED

Uganda A bubonic plague outbreak has claimed 14 lives in several villages in northwestern Uganda. The outbreak is believed to have resulted from an influx of rats seeking shelter in the villages during the rainy season. Source ProMED

Honduras A decline in sanitary conditions due to flooding in the north of Honduras could lead to potential epidemics of cholera, malaria, dengue, and leptospirosis. Source PAHO

North Korea Recent flash floods have damaged the food supply of an already chronically malnourished North Korean population due to earlier drought. The flooding has also increased the concern of potential outbreaks of waterborne diseases. Source IFRC


Water Resources/Energy

New Zealand In terms of impacts on hydro-electricity, the drought of 2001 was the worst in 71 years according to a report from the New Zealand Ministry of Energy. A complicating factor in the energy sector was the unusually cold start of the winter season which increased demand while water resources for production were limited. During June 2001, electricity demand reached record high levels. The IRI seasonal temperature forecast for the period December 2001 - February 2002 indicates a greatly enhanced probability for above average temperatures across the South Island. However, demand is not as sensitive to temperature during the coming season. (New Zealand Ministry of Economic Development Report)


Agriculture

Argentina Heavy rainfall in October coming on the heals of an unusually wet September have flooded more than 4 million hectares of crop land in 58 districts in the northern Pampas. Numerous roads have been damaged and many towns in the countryside are flooded with others cut-off by flood waters. More than 2.5 million people are reportedly affected and losses of winter crops are estimated at $300 million USD. Over 300mm of rainfall was recorded in some areas during October which represents more than three times the normal monthly average. The IRI seasonal forecast indicates a slightly enhanced probability for rainfall to be below the long term average in the coming months. See Pampas update here.

Canada The President of the Canadian Federation of Agriculture recently announced that drought conditions across the prairies and in the eastern provinces of New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island could cost the economy $3.3 billion USD this year. Across sections of the prairies, the summer of 2001 was the driest in decades, and continued below average rainfall through October has not brought relief. Crop yields are expected to suffer and numerous livestock are being sold due to poor pasture conditions and inadequate water supply. Most of the drought-affected regions are currently entering their driest season of the year placing a premium on the quality of Spring rains in 2002. (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada)


Material for this portion of the IRI Climate Information Digest has been extracted from the UN/OCHA Reliefweb (RW), the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), Doctors Without Borders (DWB), Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED), USDA/NOAA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF) and the Fishmeal Exporters Organization (FEO). Additional information was obtained from the NOAA/OGP Climate Information Program, Red Cross/CNN/IBM Disaster Relief (DRO), COMTEX, CNN, International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC), and the Power Marketing Association PMA.


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