Hazards/Threats

Asia - Vietnam  Unusually dry conditions prior to the onset of the rainy season in southern Vietnnam has contributed to the spread of a significant forest fire over the past month or so. An OCHA report from early May indicates that the fire has destroyed thousands of hectares of forest. In addition, the report indicates that the Melaleuca peat forest was seriously damaged which is a significant ecological impact of the fire. As many as 5,000 fire fighters have been working to control the blaze.

The IRI seasonal forecast indicates climatological probabilities (that is, equal chances) for all three rainfall categories for the coming season.

Asia - Afghanistan  Some of the heaviest rains since the onset of drought in late 1998 were observed in northern and northwestern Afghanistan during April. These heavy rains, falling on soils heavily impacted by a prolonged drought, resulted in some locally severe flash floods throughout the month. The most adversely affected areas included the provinces of Faryab (early in April) and Badghis near the end of the month. Reports indicate that the flooding caused damage to several canals and bridges and destroyed over 500 homes. The latest heavy rains were of little relief to the agricultual sector due to their late timing and intensity. Even with a return to more normal rainfall recovery from the drought will be slow in a country where more than 85% of the population is involved in agriculture. UN, IRIN, UN

South America - Ecuador  Unusually heavy rains continued in portions of coastal and western Ecudaor during April triggering floods as well as some landslides. Especially affected were the provinces of Manabi, Esmeraldes, Los Rios and El Oro. OCHA reported that more than 9,000 homes were damaged as were rice, coffee and cocoa crops. OCHA, OCHA, National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology

The IRI seasonal forecast for the region indicates an enhanced likelihood of above average rainfall in portions of western Ecuador in the coming 3 motnhs.

Africa - Burkina Faso  Since the beginning of the year, the meningitis death toll in Burkina Faso has reached 1,368 from 11,899 cases. The decrease in the weekly case-fatality rate indicates a decline in the outbreak. Hot and dry weather have contributed to this outbreak, along with the introduction of the W135 strain. Source: IRIN

Africa - Malawi  With a continuing drought, Malawi is experiencing its worst cholera outbreak in a decade, with over 900 deaths, and its worst food shortage in 50 years putting 78% of the farming community at risk of starvation. Sources: UNWire, IRIN, Reuters Health

Africa - Somalia  Contaminated water wells, due to recent flooding, have resulted in at least 32 cholera deaths in Bosaso. Source: IRIN

Asia - Malaysia  An outbreak of hand, foot and mouth disease amongst children in Selangor has been attributed to prolonged dry spell there. Source: ProMED

Australia - Australia  So far this year 80 cases of Ross River Virus infection have occurred in southern Tasmania, almost 7 times the number of cases reported for the whole of last year. The outbreak of this mosquito-borne disease is believed to be partly due to heavy spring rains last year in Tasmania, which provides breeding grounds for the mosquito. Source: ProMED

Pacific Islands - Cook Islands  A new wave of dengue cases on Rarotonga may be indicative of a new serotype of the dengue virus on the island. The recent hot weather may also be contributing to the case increases in this mosquito-borne disease. Source: ProMED

South America - Brazil  The worst dengue epidemic in the state of Rio de Janeiro is waning following April's unusually dry conditions. Since the beginning of the year, national health authorities have reported 317,787 cases of dengue fever including 57 deaths, with 41% of cases being registered in Rio de Janeiro state, a 886% increase over the same period last year in Rio. In the municipality of Rio de Janeiro alone, 95,463 cases, including 571 dengue hemorrhagic fever cases and 31 deaths were reported. The number of cases reported in April represents 3% of cases reported since the beginning of the outbreak. As dengue cases fell, cases of malaria rose to 32, with 28 imported from outside the state of Rio de Janeiro. Sources: WHO, ProMED, ProMED

Asia - Sri Lanka  Following a prolonged period of unusually dry conditions, reservoir levels at hydroelectric facilities dropped suffiently to prompt the Sri Lankan Government to institute power rationing in April of last year to help conserve water resources. Although rainfall deficits still persist in some areas, the government has decided to end power cuts effective 15 May 2002 as water levels have improved somewhat over the past few months. Sri Lanka depends on hydroelectricity to meet roughly two-thirds of its energy requirements. (PMA)

The IRI seasonal forecast for the coming season indicates a slighly enhanced probability of below average precipitation across sections of southern India and northern Sri Lanka.

Asia - Taiwan  With precipitation well below average over the past few months, Taiwan is now facing water shortages. In Taipei, the capital, a water rationing program began in May, which is the first time that has happened in over 20 years. To help meet demand for water resources, Taiwan is currently importing water from China which has not happened for more than 50 years. Reuters, AP

The main rainy season in Taiwan runs from May to September, although measureable precipitation is observed throughout the year.

Africa - Zimbabwe  Despite slightly above average late season rainfall in parts of Zimbabwe and Zambia, crop prospects continue to be generally poor. The government of Zimbabwe declared a state of disaster on 3 April 2002 due to related food security issues. Several organizations are presently involved with relief efforts to deliver food supplies to the region. FAO, UNDP

Africa - Northwest Africa  Late season rainfall brought some relief to nothwestern Africa which in many areas has been experiencing a prolonged drought. A FAS report indicates that the rains have been somewhat beneficial for winter wheat crops although more rainfall is needed to make up for accumulated deficits. The region is currently entering the start of its dry season. FAS

South America - Southern Paraguay  Unusually heavy rainfall over the past few months has resulted in flooding in southern Paraguay, especially in the department of Neembucu. According to an OCHA report, on 6 May the Government declared the department of Neembucu an emergency area (they did not request international assistance). The flooding has had significant impacts to crops according to the report with up to 60% of maize production lost along with as much as 80% of potato and bean crops, generally grown for subsistence. OCHA

Rainfall in southern Paraguay generally reaches a minimum during the coming season and the IRI seasonal forecast does not indicate an enhanced likelihood of above normal rainfall for the period.