Hazards/Threats

Asia - Indonesia  Flooding caused by heavy rainfall (precipitation anomalies: Dec 2004, Jan 2005) resulted in heavy damage to rice and maize crops in southern Sumatra and western Java in January. Approximately 21,800 hectares of rice and 3900 hectares of maize, worth US$ 14.2 million were destroyed in Lampung province, and 16,700 hectares of rice were damaged in South Sumatra province. (DFO)

This region is currently in the middle of its rainy season, and the latest IRI seasonal precipitation forecast suggests there is a slightly-enhanced probability of above-normal rainfall for the March-May 2005 season.

Asia - Afghanistan,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan  Cold weather and heavy snowfall (Jan 2005, 1-Month WASP Index) that began in January and continued into February has caused destructive avalanches, isolated villages and stranded travelers, and caused deaths from hypothermia and a variety of respiratory illnesses in central and southwest Asia. OCHA has reported at least 100 deaths in Afghanistan due to hypothermia and cold-related illnesses, including whooping cough in Ghor province, pneumonia, and other respiratory illnesses in Logar and Daikundi provinces. The most heavily affected provinces in Afghanistan include Badakhshan, Daikundi, Ghazni, Paktika, Ghor, Zabul, Uruzgan, and Wardak. Some deaths in Zabul province were the result of houses collapsing under the weight of accumulated snow (IRIN, OCHA). BBC has reported that more than 160 people in Afghanistan have been killed by avalanches or accidents associated with heavy snow.

In parts of Tajikistan, as much as two meters of snow had accumulated over the course of two weeks. Heavy snowfall and over 100 avalanches in the Rasht Valley region of Tajikistan has killed as many as nine people, buried at least 17 homes (in the village of Degdonak), stranded hundreds of vehicles, and caused the roofs of homes and public buildings to collapse (OCHA, IFRC, ReliefWeb map). Besides the Rasht Valley, avalanches have been reported primarily in the Varzob Valley, the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast in the southeast, and the Khatlon region in the south. More than 375 avalanches have been reported in the Pamir region of the southeast as well (IRIN). Because communication lines have been downed and many areas have been isolated by the heavy snowfall, it has been difficult to determine what relief needs exist overall (IRIN). According to the Tajik emergency ministry, damage caused by the avalanches is estimated to total approximately USD3 million (IRIN).

Heavy snow in early January stranded nearly 900 people on roads in northern and central Kazakhstan (IRIN). The Chardara Reservoir on the Syrdarya River in Kazakhstan is in danger of overflowing due to excessive water coming downstream from Toktogul Reservoir in Kyrgyzstan, where hydroelectric energy production has been boosted to meet the increased electricity demand for heating (IRIN).

The latest IRI seasonal precipitation forecast suggests a slightly-enhanced probability of above-normal precipitation for this region of central and southwest Asia for the March-May 2005 season.

Central America - Costa Rica,Panama  Heavy rainfall in southern Central America brought flooding and landslides to the Atlantic coasts of Costa Rica and Panama in early January (Reference map). Approximately 45,000 people were affected in both countries. In Panama, the provinces of Bocas del Toro, Chiriquí and Veraguas and the Nogbë Buglé region were among those worst affected. Flooding was reported along at least 7 rivers, including the Cricamola, Changinola and Sixaola rivers. According to officials, banana plantations were heavily damaged and up to 80% of the current banana crop may have been destroyed.

In Costa Rica, the government declared a national emergency on 11 January. Eleven cantons in the provinces of Limón, Heredia, Cartago and Alajuela were affected. At least five people were killed and 6000 people were evacuated. Significant damage to infrastructure and nearly 6650 hectares of agricultural land was also reported. Talamanca, a poor canton in Limón province, placed nearly 2000 of its 29,000 residents in temporary shelters. (ACT, DPA, OCHA, OCHA, IFRC, ReliefWeb, ReliefWeb)

North America - United States  A series of winter storms in late December and early January brought heavy rain, snow, flooding and mudslides to the southwestern United States. The states of California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah and Colorado were most affected by the storms. Precipitation across the region was above normal, exceeding the 90th percentile of the climatological distribution in many areas (Jan precipitation percentile map). The largest accumulated departures from normal occurred along the southern California coast. Los Angeles received nearly 300 mm of rain over two weeks; the city climatologically receives less than 50 mm of rain in early January (Los Angeles precipitation time series). Twenty-five people were killed in floods and mudslides in California. In Utah, the Santa Clara and Virgin Rivers reached 25- and 100-year flood levels, respectively. Damage estimates in that state have exceeded USD 225 million. Seven of the 15 counties in Arizona declared states of emergency. Estimates place the cost of damages there at USD 4 million. Elsewhere in the region, thousands of people were affected by floods and avalanches, and hundreds of homes were destroyed. The western United States has been suffering one of the worst droughts on record. While the recent rain and snowfall has certainly helped conditions, it will most likely take much longer than a single season to break the drought completely. (DFO, CNN, USA Today)

The latest IRI seasonal forecast indicates an enhanced probability of above-normal precipitation across the southern tier of the western United States during March-May 2005.

South America - Colombia,Guyana,Venezuela  Heavy rain and downpours during the month of January (Jan 2005 precipitation anomaly) caused flooding in the capital, Georgetown, and in surrounding areas (ReliefWeb map). A report in late January stated that over 40 inches (about 1020 mm) of rain had been received since 26 December (IFRC). By 7 February, an estimated 290,000 people in the northeastern administrative regions of West Demerara-Essequibo Islands, Demerara-Mahaica, and Mahaica-Berbice in northern Guyana had been affected in some way by the flooding. 5,600 people were in shelters, about 32,000 people were cut off from assistance, and the homes of 92,000 people were flooded (USAID). At least six people had been killed. About two-thirds of Georgetown had been flooded, and the state radio station and municipal airport had been forced to close, as had public buildings (IFRC). The director general of the Guyana Red Cross indicated there had been reports of children suffering from diarrhea, skin diseases, vomiting, and coughs and colds, apparently associated with the flooding (IFRC). As of early February at Georgetown Public Hospital, about 112 suspected cases and 12 deaths from leptospirosis had been reported (USAID). Flooding that began in Venezuela and Colombia around 12 February (IFRC, ReliefWeb) was likely preconditioned by the heavy rainfall in the region in January.

The latest IRI seasonal precipitation forecast suggests that there is a slightly- to moderately-enhanced probability of above-normal rainfall in Guyana, most of Venezuela, and much of Colombia during March-May 2005.

Africa - Burundi  Heavy rainfall in Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) during January sparked an epidemic of cholera and caused damage to local infrastructure (Jan 2005 precipitation percentile map). January is near the mid-point of the rainy season in the region, which generally lasts from November to April (Precipitation climatology animation). In DRC, at least 8000 homes in Uvira were destroyed. The rains also swept garbage from the town into Lake Kivu, which is a primary water resource for residents. According to a senior health official, 2152 people have been infected with cholera and 34 cholera-related deaths have been reported in the Kivu region (IRIN). In Bujumbura, the capital of Burundi, 88 cases of cholera and 3 cholera-related deaths had been reported, as of 19 January. The heavy rain had affected water treatment equipment in Bujumbura. According to government officials, approximately 1000 homes were destroyed in Burundi, most of which were in Gatumba and the Imbo region. (IRIN, IRIN)

Africa - Gabon  Water shortages in Gabon, due in part to recent dry conditions, have contributed to an outbreak of typhoid. As of 25 January, approximately 100 cases have been reported nationwide. Twelve of those cases and the only reported death occurred in the capital city of Libreville. Due to the disruption of the water supply, people living in Libreville have had to get water from temporary standpipes in the street. Consumption of water of poor quality is a common method of contracting the highly infectious, water-borne disease. While the dry weather has played a role in the water shortages, officials have also indicated that mechanical difficulties have also been a problem. (IRIN)

The latest IRI seasonal precipitation forecast suggests a slightly-enhanced probability of above-normal precipitation for western Gabon during the March-May 2005 season.

Caribbean - Cuba  Cuba is continuing to feel the effects of severe drought (Aug 2004 CID Report). Drought began to settle into the eastern portion of the country in mid-2003 and, according to the WFP, 2004 was the driest in 74 years. Precipitation, however, has generally been below normal in Cuba since the mid-1990's (National-level precipitation time series). Reservoir levels have reached record lows in the eastern provinces, and estimates indicate that the drought has caused US$834 million in damage to the agricultural sector. Nearly 128,000 head of cattle have been lost, and rice production in 2004 (260,000 tons) fell nearly 20% from that of 2003 (320,000 tons). In an effort to improve access to water, approximately 488 wells have been drilled in recent months. The government has also brought water to 700,000 people in the capital cities of Havana, Camagüey, Holguín and Las Tunas. (WFP, WFP)

Cuba's next rainy season, which typically occurs during May and June, will play an important role in dictating how long drought conditions will persist in the island nation. The latest IRI seasonal forecast for March-May 2005 indicates a moderately-enhanced likelihood of below-normal precipitation.

Africa - Tanzania  According to the USDA, good weather for the cotton crop in Tanzania in 2004 contributed to above-average yields (218 kg/hectare compared to the 5-year average of 155 kg/hectare) and high production. About 90 percent of the cotton grown in Tanzania is raised in the northwest (cotton production areas in Tanzania), where recent moisture conditions have been favorable early on for this year's crop. Planting takes place from November to January and harvesting typically begins in June. (USDA)

The latest IRI seasonal precipitation forecast indicates a slightly-enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation in sections of northern, eastern, and southern Tanzania during March-May 2005.

Africa - Botswana,Namibia  The growing season has started poorly in much of Botswana and in the Caprivi strip in Namibia due to below-normal rainfall thus far (Nov 2004 - Jan 2005 precipitation anomaly). The rainy season in the area runs from about November to March (climatological annual cycle). The lack of rain has discouraged farmers from plowing and planting crops. According to the Ministry of Agriculture in Botswana, as of early February, only three to four percent of agricultural land (12,450 hectares of 325,000 hectares) had been planted, when about half of the available agricultural land would normally have been planted (IRIN). The Early Warning Unit of the Namibian government has stated that late-starting and below-normal rains since planting have made crop prospects unfavorable there as well (WFP).

The latest IRI seasonal precipitation forecast for Namibia, Botswana, and most of southern Africa indicates a slightly- to moderately-enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation for the March-May 2005 season.

South America - Bolivia  Good rainfall (Oct-Dec 2004 precipitation anomaly) during the first part of the rainy season has helped to ease dry conditions in the El Chaco region of southeastern Bolivia. In the aftermath of a severe drought which has had a substantial impact on food production (Dec 2004 CID), the improved rainfall has reportedly filled low reservoirs that supply drinking water to community water systems (WFP). However, according to WFP, the availability of food in the region will continue to be a "major problem" until the next harvest, which is expected in May. The success of the harvest is still in doubt due to a possible lack of seeds and uncertainty that favorable rains will continue for the rest of the season.

South America - Brazil  Drought (12-Month WASP Index) in the state of Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil has reportedly caused a 30 percent decline in the state's corn crop and could also prompt an increase in the cost of producing poultry and swine, according to a media report (Gazeta Mercantil Online). Grain prices have risen ten percent in Rio Grande do Sul and about five percent in the southern region of Brazil. According to the state government, a 1.3 million ton deficit in the corn supply for the state is expected after the 2004/05 crop is harvested. A report in the February 2005 edition of the USDA's "World Agricultural Production" stated that soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul had also suffered drought damage, but that soybean production in Brazil this year is expected to be well above last year's total (USDA).

Africa - Uganda  According to the energy minister of Uganda, low water levels on Lake Victoria have reduced hydroelectric power generation capacity and increased power shortages across the eastern African country. The low lake levels are associated with below-normal rainfall in the region, which typically receives most of its precipitation during the March-May and September-November rainy seasons (May-Oct 2004 WASP Index). Consistent above-average temperatures are also being blamed for causing a higher rate of evaporation than normal. Two power stations, which provide 270 MW at full capacity, are currently under performing by 50 MW. The poor power production has made load shedding in all civic centers necessary. According to authorities, however, drought conditions are only part of the problem. Demand for electricity in Uganda has increased to a point where it often exceeds supply. Uganda is currently negotiating power purchases with Kenya to alleviate some of the power shortages. (IRIN)

The latest IRI seasonal precipitation forecast indicates a slightly-enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation for much of Uganda, Kenya, and sections of Tanzania during March-May 2005.