Hazards/Threats

Asia - Vietnam  After experiencing devastating floods in mid-October (November CID Report), central Vietnam was hit again by heavy rainfall and flooding in mid-November. The provinces of Binh Thuan, Ninh Thuan, Khanh Hoa, Phu Yen, Binh Dinh, Quang Ngai and Quang Nam were among those worst affected. The two rounds of flooding and landslides, said to be the worst since 1964, caused an estimated US$35 million in damage, affected 340,000 people and killed 103 people. Approximately two-thirds of these losses were caused by the November event. (IFRC, UNICEF, OCHA, DFO)

Asia - Indonesia  Flash flooding along the Bahorok River in the Langkat district of North Sumatra devastated the resort town of Bahorok. The official death toll from the floods is 165, and 76 people were still missing as of 2 December. Approximately 1400 people were displaced in the villages of Bukit Lawang, Timbang Lawan, and Sampe Raya. Over 400 houses, 280 kiosks, and eight bridges were destroyed by the flood waters. At least four other rivers in the area burst their banks as well.

Flash floods are common during Indonesia's rainy season, which typically begins in November and lasts through April. This particular event has been blamed on above-average rainfall as well as deforestation by illegal logging in the nearby Gunung Leuser National Park. Many areas in northern Sumatra experienced above-normal preciptation during October as well. (OCHA, Laksamana.Net, CNN, IFRC, UNWire)

Caribbean - Dominican Republic,Puerto Rico  Days of heavy rainfall that began on 14 November caused flooding and landslides in Puerto Rico and northern areas of the Dominican Republic through the 26th of November (Caribbean Map). In the Dominican Republic, there were 10 deaths and about 200,000 hectares of farmland were flooded, primarily rice fields and banana plantations. Approximately 66,000 people were affected and over 47,000 people had been evacuated. Lands along the Yaque del Norte and Yuna Rivers were affected the most. The provinces of Santiago, Valverde, Montecristi, Duarte, María Trinidad Sánchez, and Samaná all experienced flooding. According to the ministry of agriculture, about 60,000 metric tons of rice were lost and hundreds of livestock were missing. (IFRC, OCHA, UNOSAT, DFO)

Africa - Benin,Mali  Flooding (DFO) along the Niger River in Mali which resulted from the better-than-average rainfall during the 2003 rainy season, has contributed to a cholera outbreak among people who live and work along the river. Between 14 August and 23 November, there were 977 cases of cholera and 82 deaths, according to the Mali national director of health (IRIN). During November, cases of cholera were reported from the towns of Koulikoro and Segou downstream to Macina and Mopti (map). One report indicated that a large number of the cases occurred among nomadic fishermen who rely on the river for drinking water, cooking, and washing (IRIN).

A cholera outbreak has also been reported in the nation of Benin, near the town of Parakou. Forty-nine cases were reported in the district of Borgou between 26 September and 10 November, after heavy rains and flooding (IRIN). WHO has reported that there had been 265 cases of cholera and three deaths between the beginning of 2003 and 15 November in the Atlantique and Borgou departments.

Africa - Sudan  Abundant rainfall during the past year in south-central Sudan after two years of drought is being blamed for an increase in the number of malaria cases in the region. The problem is most pronounced in the province of Bahr el Ghazal where the rains turned much of the area into mosquito-favorable marshland. Fifty-two thousand people have reportedly been treated since the end of June, which is a significant increase over previous years. The agricultural sector has largely welcomed the rainfall, however, as it has raised their expectations of next year's pasture conditions for their livestock. (IRIN, FEWS Net)

Africa - Mozambique,Rwanda,Swaziland,Tanzania  Rwanda and most of Tanzania have received below-normal rainfall in recent weeks (Sep-Nov 3-Month WASP). These recent precipitation deficits compound the dry conditions in Tanzania that resulted from below-normal rainfall during March-May of 2003, particularly along the coast. Food shortages currently exist in Tanzania -- WFP has requested US$ 17 million in food aid to feed about 2.0 million people from December 2003 to March 2004 (IRIN). The government of Tanzania has removed import taxes on maize and rice and has promised to release 32,450 metric tons of maize from its strategic reserve to sell at subsidized prices. A Rapid Vulnerability Assessment undertaken by FEWS during June/July 2003 found that most of those facing food shortages in Tanzania are poor households cultivating small plots which had below-normal harvests as a result of the previous season's dry conditions (FEWS).

In Rwanda, crops have suffered from below-average rainfall in recent weeks, and the harvest of crops such as cassava, sorghum, and corn in January is expected to be affected (IRIN, FEWS Net). People in some areas of the provinces of Kibungo and Umutara are facing increasing food insecurity, and a joint nutrition survey found moderate to high rates of malnutrition among children under five years of age in the Bugesera region (WFP). FEWS estimates that about 300,000 people in central and eastern Rwanda will require food aid between December 2003 and June 2004.

Dry conditions are also present in Mozambique and Swaziland. Below normal rainfall through the end of October and recent high temperatures delayed planting in extreme southern Mozambique, which may translate to lower yields there. Rainfall was below-normal in the southern province of Maputo during November as well. Poor rainfall over the past eight months has reportedly caused the loss of 10 percent of the livestock in the town of Khuphuka, Hlane, and Malindza in the Lowveld of Swaziland. (WFP, FEWS Net, WFP, WFP)

The latest IRI seasonal precipitation forecast indicates a slightly elevated probability of below-normal precipitation in a band from eastern Namibia to Kenya for the January-March 2004 season.

Africa - Namibia  The Namibian government has issued an appeal to the international community for nearly US$33.7 million to provide relief to those affected by the ongoing drought and the floods that struck in the north during May (May, June and September CID Reports). Approximately 643,000 people are in need of food, seeds, water, and emergency grazing for their animals. The government is contributing US$14.2 million of its own funds toward the relief effort. (WFP, The Namibian, IRIN, IRIN)

Namibia, which receives most of its rainfall between October and April, has experienced a mixed start to the rainy season thus far. Most of the country reported below-average rainfall totals in October and above-average rainfall totals in November. (The Namibian)

The latest IRI seasonal forecast for the January-March 2004 season indicates a slightly increased probability of below-normal precipitation for eastern Namibia.

Asia - China  Several months of above-normal rainfall (percent of median rainfall, Aug-Oct 2003) and flooding (DFO) in the Yellow River basin of China has resulted in losses for this year's cotton crop, especially in the provinces of Henan, Shandong, and Hebei. According to the USDA, heavy rainfall began as cotton bolls were opening and as the harvest began. Problems associated with the heavy rainfall included low boll counts, boll shedding, wilting, late development, increased pest and disease occurrence, and low cotton quality. Yields were down 10 to 50 percent from last year in many cotton-growing areas, and the USDA predicts that production will be down 3 percent from last year, with a total production of about 22.0 million bales.

With continued above-normal rainfall in November (Nov 2003 precipitation percentile) there is adequate soil moisture for winter wheat germination and development (USDA), but flooding and the late maturation of summer crops has delayed or even prevented the planting of winter crops in some areas.

Europe - Ukraine  The USDA has predicted that corn production in the Ukraine will be up 55 percent from last year to 6.5 million tons. The total area planted in corn increased significantly from 1.5 million hectares last year to 2.3 million hectares this year, primarily in areas where the grain crops during the winter of 2002/03 were largely destroyed by harsh winter weather (April 2003 Digest, November 2003 Digest). Generally good weather throughout the growing season and dry conditions at harvest contributed to the good production. (USDA, Nov. 2003 World Agricultural Production)