Hazards/Threats

Africa - Uganda  Uganda is still suffering from widespread famine from last year's drought and the situation is set to worsen if rains do not come by mid-April, which is the end of the normal precipitation cycle. There are conflicting reports of the number of deaths due to the famine, ranging from zero to 500. Political insecurity is reportedly making the situation worse for those living in the region. (IRIN)

Africa - Africa: Southern  Heavy rains produced by the remnants of tropical cyclone Japhet in the early days of March fell over central and southern Mozambique and parts of Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia. The resulting flooding damaged a hydro power facility in Malawi, affected approximately 50,000 people in Mozambique, killed eight people in southern Zimbabwe, and caused some crop damage in eastern Zimbabwe. Additional scattered rainfall fell later in the month in northern Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, and South Africa. The rest of the southern Africa region largely remained dry during March and continued to accumulate precipitation deficits. Drought conditions killed about 35,000 head of cattle in the Matabeleland region of southern Zimbabwe in the first three months of 2003. And as many as 190,000 people in the Lowveld and Lubombo Plateau region of Swaziland could be affected by food shortages over the next several months due to extensive weather-related crop losses. (AFP, FEWS Net, IRIN, IFRC, IRIN, IRIN, Reuters, WFP, FAO)

During the current rainy season areas in northern Mozambique, eastern Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, and eastern Zambia have benefited from above-normal precipitation, but much of the rainfall was produced by tropical cyclones and was often accompanied by flooding. Rainfall from the remnants of tropical cyclone Japhet came too late in the season to help crops in Zambia and Zimbabwe which had already been damaged by dry weather. Much of the rest of the region has received below-normal rainfall for the season for the second year in a row. While the prospects for crops are better than last year in some locations, millions of people in southern Africa continue to rely upon outside food aid.

Asia - Afghanistan  Heavy rain brought flooding and drought relief to the province of Kunduz in northern Afghanistan. Reports indicated that over 2000 people were affected by the floods which caused 14 deaths, damaged 474 homes, and destroyed 168 homes. Eleven compounds of the agricultural department in Mazar were completely destroyed, according to the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). Despite the damage, the rains raised hopes of easing the four-year drought which forced hundreds of thousands of people from their villages in search of water and food and killed hundreds of people and thousands of head of livestock. (Reuters, IRIN)

South America - Bolivia  Heavy rain and a collapsed mine contributed to a landslide in the gold-mining town of Chima, approximately 200 km north of La Paz. According to reports, there have been 22 deaths, 400 homes destroyed, and 700 familes affected. There may also be as many as 250 people still missing. (IFRC, CRS) The President of Bolivia, Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, declared Chima a disaster area soon after the event occurred. Blankets, food, and medicine have been sent by the Bolivian Red Cross, WFP, and the WHO. (DPA, IFRC, OCHA)

The latest IRI seasonal forecast for May-July 2003 indicates an enhanced probability of above-normal precipitation in much of Bolivia.

Africa - Zimbabwe  Malaria outbreaks are being reported in the northern regions of Zimbabwe, with 163 deaths and 97,885 cases reported during the first 8 weeks of the year (2003). The region has had above-normal rainfall and recently experienced flooding due to cyclone Japhet. Four deaths and 52 cases of cholera have also been reported in the Beitbridge area. (IRIN)

Asia - Malaysia  An unusually heavy rainy season and the appearance of the dengue virus serotype DEN-3 are being blamed for a sharp increase in dengue cases in Malaysia. There have been 11 deaths from dengue so far this year in addition to 3410 reported cases. (GoAsiaPacific)

Oceania - New Caledonia  The outer Loyalty Islands have reported an estimated 520 cases of dengue fever as the epidemic spreads through New Caledonia. The region was hit by cyclone Erica, increasing the risk of disease outbreaks. (GoAsiaPacific )

Africa - Somalia  Good deyr rains (October to December) helped to produce an 80 percent increase in cereal production over the 1995-2001 average in southern Somalia. The sorghum crop in the Bay region and the maize crop in Lower Shabelle, in particular, benefited from the rains. (FEWSNet, IRIN)

Africa - Africa: East  The onset of the March-May rains has been delayed by 20 to 30 days in agricultural areas of the Great Lakes region. The unusually dry conditions may have already reduced crop yields in Tanzania and affected Burundi and eastern and southern Rwanda. A USDA/FAS report predicts that dry conditions in early March will have a negative effect on cotton yields in northwestern Tanzania. Harvesting of the cotton crop is due to begin in June. WFP has indicated that it needs immediate pledges of food for about 1.2 million people in Burundi until the end of June because of reduced harvests caused by dry conditions. (IRIN, IRIN)

Africa - Africa: West  Long-term dryness originating from the poor rainy season in 2002 (June-September) continues to affect West Africa. Poor pasture conditions and low water levels in Mauritania and Senegal have forced farmers to move cattle to the Gambia, the peanut harvest in Senegal is reportedly down 70 percent from normal (IRIN), and below-normal rainfall in Guinea has resulted in low reservoir levels, which are used for the generation of hydroelectric power. Food security issues continue to be a problem as well. Two million people are facing serious drought-related food shortages in Cape Verde, the Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, and Senegal. FAO has renewed its appeal for funding for food aid, seeds, tools, fertilizer,and technical assistance with irrigation. (FEWSNet, FAO)

Africa - South Africa  A USDA/FAS crop assessment mission to South Africa during the last week of February found crop conditions in the Maize Triangle to be below- to near-normal in general, due to the late start of the growing season, the effects of heat stress during January, and low soil moisture in February. (USDA/FAS)

Africa - Eritrea  Agriculture and food and water security continue to be affected by the drought in Eritrea as the country deals with the worst crop failure in a decade. (IRIN) The cost of livestock has been falling on a daily basis, decreasing by 30 percent since the onset of the drought last year. Local grain prices have doubled in the past four months while the price of water has doubled in the past month alone. (Government of Eritrea, IFRC) Those in rural areas have been hit the hardest by the water shortage; 1 in 5 people in rural areas have access to drinking water compared to 1 in 2 people in the cities. (AFP) Fifteen water points in the Mai Mine sub-region in Debub, typically the country's second most productive breadbasket, have gone completely dry. The number of malnourished children has increased as well, driving the global acute malnutrition rate to between 15 and 28 percent. People are reportedly coping by collecting leaves from trees to supplement food aid. (WFP) WFP operations aimed at averting a "complete humanitarian catastrophe" may be halted soon if more donations are not received. (IRIN, IRIN)

Africa - Ethiopia  Drought in Ethiopia has continued to have adverse impacts on agriculture and food security. The UN's Emergencies Unit for Ethiopia (EUE) has warned of a new food crisis "in the making" because of a lack of planting seeds as farmers have been forced to eat the seeds they would normally plant. (IRIN) The country's government plans to resettle up to 150,000 farmers threatened with severe food shortages to more fertile areas this year. (Reuters) Recent surveys have shown critical levels (i.e., greater than 15 percent) of global acute malnutrition in 24 districts, despite the fact that on the national level food aid distributions have stabilized the situation. (USAID) WFP operations focused on these problems may be halted in June if more donations are not received. (FEWSNet, IRIN)

Seasonal rainfall has started across central Ethiopia and in more isolated events across the eastern pasture lands. (FEWSNet), but the remaining of the belg rains (March to May) are key to the recovery of the region. (IRIN, UNDP EUE) The latest IRI seasonal forecast for May-June indicates an enhanced probability of above-normal precipitation in southern Ethiopia.

Europe - Europe: East  A lack of adequate snow cover during episodes of very cold temperatures during the winter are expected to cause a decline in winter grain production in areas of central and eastern Europe. In the Ukraine, nearly 1.6 million hectares of cereals will need to be replanted due to a higher-than-average winter kill due to periods of very cold weather. The winter cereal harvest is expected to decline by about 2.8 million tons compared to 2002, according to the FAO. The USDA has also reported that cold weather likely caused "considerable damage" to winter grain crops in the Ukraine, especially in the south. Poland, Romania, Hungary, and Serbia are also expected to see declines in their winter grain production due to similar winter conditions. (FAO, USDA/FAS, USDA/FAS)

Oceania - Australia  According to an Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) 18 February report, 2002 winter grain output has been estimated at 15.4 million tons, down 61 percent from the record crop in 2001, and the lowest production since 1982-83, due to the record drought. The total area of summer maize and sorghum planted was also down 40 percent from last year, and 20 percent below the last five-year average. Yields are expected to be low unless rainfall improves. The sorghum harvest generally runs from March to June. A lack of available irrigation water has also greatly reduced the area planted in irrigated cotton and rice. Although rainfall improved in February, most of the country received below-normal precipitation once again in March. (FAO, ABARE)

Oceania - New Zealand  Several months of below-normal rainfall has begun to affect agricultural production, including dairy operations, and may begin to have an effect on hydro power, which accounts for about two-thirds of the country's power production. In Taranaki, on North Island, some farmers have begun milking just once rather than twice a day. Rainfall in March amounted to less than 50 percent of average in the southern half of the North Island and parts of the South Island, according to NIWA. (Reuters, The Daily News of New Plymouth, NIWA)

South America - Argentina,Brazil  According to recent USDA/FAS global crop condition briefs, the soybean crop in Argentina and Brazil is in excellent condition due to good rainfall conditions in recent months. (USDA/FAS)

Further north, in northern and central Brazil, conditions have been quite dry in recent months. The latest IRI seasonal forecast indicates a slightly-increased probability of above-normal rainfall during the May-July 2003 season.