ENSO Quick
Look
IRI ENSO Update / Forecast
Technical
ENSO Update
IRI Probabilistic ENSO
Forecast
ENSO Prediction Plume
Monthly
archive
ENSO Update
14 May 2008
Summary
La
Niña conditions continue to weaken in the equatorial Pacific.
Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) still exist
in the central equatorial Pacific, but they have been trending toward
neutral since February 2008. There is a 60% probability of attaining
ENSO-neutral conditions over the coming season.
General Discussion
The La Niña conditions that have been in place since
August 2007 appear to have peaked in February 2008, and are now
trending towards ENSO-neutral conditions. The below-average SSTs
are weakening in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The
equatorial
heat content is increasing. Also, the Southern Oscillation index has
been decreasing, suggesting a weakening of the atmospheric
manifestation
of La Niña. The easterly wind
anomalies observed in the central and western Pacific that had been
helping maintain the La Niña conditions have also weakened
considerably in May.
Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast models, most
models indicate ENSO-neutral SSTs during the coming May-Jun-Jul
season.
Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of the ocean
surface and subsurface, the probability of a La Niña conditions
is
estimated at 35% and the probability of
returning to
ENSO-neutral conditions is 60% for the May-Jun-Jul season in
progress
Note 1 - Only models that
produce a
new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.
Top of Page
|
