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Technical ENSO Update

14 May 2008


>	Current conditions
>	Expected conditions

Current Conditions

As of mid-May 2008 SSTs in the central equatorial Pacific remain below average, but have been trending towards average conditions since February 2008. Over the past months, the cold anomalies have lessened in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The Southern Oscillation index (SOI) continues to be positive, indicative of an ongoing La Niña event, but the magnitude has dropped considerably over the last couple months. The deep thermocline anomalies in the western Pacific have been adjusting onto the equator and are likely contributing to the recent reduction in the La Niña conditions in the far eastern Pacific. The low-level winds anomalies related to the La Niña conditions have also weakened in May. The equatorial heat content is returning to average in the central-eastern Pacific while increasing in the western and eastern Pacific. Taken together, these anomalous ocean-atmosphere conditions indicate the decline of La Niña conditions.

For April 2008, the SSTs in the NINO3.4 region remained below average (-0.85 degrees C anomaly), and for the Feb-Mar-Apr season were -1.26 degrees C from average, indicating that the La Niña event steadily weakened since February. Currently the IRI's definition of El Niño conditions rests on an index of SST anomalies, averaged over the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W), exceeding the warmest 25%-ile of the historical distribution, and similarly for La Niña relative to the 25%-ile coldest conditions in the historical distribution. The magnitude of NINO3.4 anomaly necessary to qualify as La Niña or El Niño conditions for the May-Jun-Jul and Jun-Jul-Aug seasons are approximately 0.5C.

Expected Conditions

The most recent weekly SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region, at -0.8 C, down from -1.9C in February and -0.9C a month ago, suggests the continued weakening of the La Niña conditions. The issue is now shifting towards how rapidly the tropical Pacific transition out of La Niña conditions. The low-level easterly wind anomalies in the central and western Pacific that were reinforcing the shallow thermocline anomalies have weakened considerably in the last couple weeks. What the low-level easterly wind anomalies left behind is a build-up of warm water in the western equatorial Pacific that is adjusting onto the equator. As the deep thermocline anomalies adjust they have been bringing the heat content back toward neutral conditions. It is possible that they may even help initiate El Niño conditions. Although the indicators of La Niña have been weakening, most of them still indicate the existence of La Niña conditions, but most of the models suggest that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to return during the May-Jun-Jul season.

At this time the models see the development of El Niño conditions as unlikely, with probabilities reaching 20% only by Sep-Oct-Nov 2008. There is an approximately 35% likelihood for La Niña conditions to continue during the May-Jun-Jul season, and a 60% probability for ENSO-neutral conditions.

The above assessment was made in part on the basis of an examination of the current forecasts of ENSO prediction models as well as the observed conditions. For purposes of this discussion, El Niño SST conditions are defined as SSTs in the NINO3.4 region being in the warmest 25% of their climatological distribution for the 3-month period in question over the 1950-present timeframe. The corresponding cutoff in terms of degrees C of SST anomaly varies seasonally, being close to 0.40 degrees C in northern late-spring/early-summer season and as high as 0.75 degrees C in late northern autumn. La Niña conditions are defined as NINO3.4 region SSTs being in the coolest 25% of the climatological distribution. Neutral conditions occupy the remaining 50% of the distribution. These definitions were developed such that the most commonly accepted El Niño and La Niña episodes are reproduced.

We are currently in the [boreal] "Spring Barrier" to ENSO prediction, which is to predict through but less difficult to predict out of once within it. Therefore, the models are again beginning to show greater agreement in their ENSO forecasts through the 10-month forecast period. Starting with the current May-Jun-Jul season, the majority of the predictions indicate ENSO-neutral conditions. The majority of models then remain ENSO-neutral through 2008, while a couple models develop weak El Niño conditions and a few maintain La Niña conditions. For the JJA 2008 season, only 5 of 22 models (23%) predict La Niña conditions to exist. At lead times of more than 4 months into the future, statistical and dynamical models that incorporate information about the ocean's observed sub-surface thermal structure generally exhibit higher predictive skill than those that do not. Among models that do use sub-surface temperature information, 1 of 14 (7%) indicate La Niña conditions will have continued into the Sep-Oct-Nov season, and 14 of 15 (93%) predict that SSTs will be ENSO-neutral (Note 1). Caution is advised in interpreting the distribution of model forecasts as the actual probabilities. At longer leads, the skill of the models degrades, and skill uncertainty must be convolved with the uncertainties from initial conditions and differing model physics, leading to more climatological probabilities in the long-lead ENSO Outlook than might be suggested by the suite of models. Furthermore, the expected skill of one model versus another has not been established using uniform validation procedures, which may cause a difference in the true probability distribution from that taken verbatim from the raw model predictions.

An alternative way to assess the probabilities of the three possible ENSO conditions is to use the mean of the forecasts of all models, and to construct a standard error function centered on that mean. The standard error would be Gaussian in shape, and would have its width determined by an estimate of overall expected model skill for the season of the year and the lead time. Higher skill would result in a relatively narrower error distribution, while low skill would result in an error distribution with width approaching that of the historical observed distribution. When this method is applied to the current model forecasts, results indicate similar probabilities for La Niña. For those probabilities, La Niña is 34% likely for the Jun-Jul-Aug season. The probabilities for La Niña then decline with time through 2008. This method shows probabilities for ENSO-neutral beginning as the most likely possibility at 53% probability, and increasing to 65% likely by the end of 2008. El Niño likelihood doesn't even reach its climatological probability of 25% throughout the forecast period. The same cautions mentioned above for the distribution of model forecasts apply to this alternative method of inferring probabilities, due to differing model biases and skills. In particular, this approach considers only the mean of the predictions, and not the range across the models, nor the ensemble range within individual models.

The IRI's probabilistic ENSO forecast takes into account the indications of this set of models, the outcome of the standard error approach described above, and additional factors such as the very latest observations that may have developed after the initialization times of some of the models. It indicates a 60% probability for ENSO-neutral conditions to return in the coming season.