| ||
|
ENSO Quick
Look IRI ENSO Update / Forecast Technical ENSO Update Summary of Model Forecasts Monthly archive ENSO Update13 June 2006SummaryNeutral conditions exist in the tropical Pacific. As of mid-June sea surface temperatures are just over 0.5C above average in the western and central equatorial Pacific, but don't significantly impact the ENSO SST index regions. Below average temperatures are observed in the eastern equatorial Pacific, but they are not of the extent or magnitude that would suggest La Nina conditions. Based on the latest observations and forecasts, the probability of neutral conditions continuing through the June-July-August 2006 season is approximately 80%.General Discussion<>Since April 2006, when sea surface temperatures (SSTs) returned rapidly from about 0.5 C near-average temperatures have dominated in the central-eastern Pacific. The western and central equatorial Pacific has warmed to about 0.5 deg C above average since mid-May 2006 and the equatorial heat content has become above average, relative to the 1970-2001 climatology period. Still, the surface and sub-surface temperature anomalies that currently exist in the tropical Pacific are not particularly large or well structured to indicate an imminent El Nino event. The observations and models suggest that neutral conditions will be in place at least through mid-2006. Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast models, most predict neutral conditions continuing throughout 2006. Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of the ocean surface and subsurface, the probability of a La Niña or El Nino conditions for June-July-August is less than the climatologically expected odds of 25%. Neutral conditions are favored throughout 2006 starting with a 80% likelihood for Jun-Jul-Aug.Note 1 - Only models that produce a new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.
|
