| ||
|
ENSO Quick Look ENSO Update18 November 2004SummaryOverall conditions in the tropical Pacific are currently indicative of a weak El Niño. Based on the latest observations and forecasts, it is at least 70% likely that weak El Niño conditions will prevail through early 2005.General DiscussionWeak El Niño conditions developed in the
east-central tropical Pacific
in late July. Sea surface temperatures of 1 degree C above
average are now observed along the equator from 160E to 150W. Sea
surface
temperatures in
the far eastern tropical Pacific have warmed to slightly above average
levels.
The tropical Pacific atmospheric
conditions have continued to show
only some weak characteristics of El Niño. Out of a large set of
dynamical and
statistical
forecast models, about three-quarters predict sea surface temperatures
at
weak El
Niño levels for the coming several months.
Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of
the ocean surface and subsurface, the chances for maintaining El
Niño
conditions are approximately 70% from November through
February of 2005, and decreasing thereafter. The likelihood
of returning to neutral conditions is approximately 30% through 2004
and early 2005, returning to the climatological
likelihood (i.e. 50% probability) from late
northern spring 2005 onward. The
probability of a La Niña developing between now and early 2005
is negligible.
Note 1 - Only models that produce a new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.
|
