Hazards/Threats

Asia - China  Heavy seasonal rainfall has caused the Hanjiang River to flood in central China (September 2005 1-Month WASP Map). Approximately 13,000 people have been affected in Hubei Province by flooding near the Hanjiang, which is a major tributary of the Yangtze River. In the neighboring province of Shaanxi, flooding along the Weihe River has reportedly affected 4.6 million people and caused USD 60.5 million in direct economic losses. The Weihe River, which is the largest tributary of the Yellow River, is exhibiting its most severe flooding since 1981. Nearly 80,000 hectares of crops and more than 39,000 homes have been destroyed in the affected region (China Daily, Xinhua, Reuters, BBC, Kyodo News Service, September 2005 CID).

According to Xinhua, flooding and landslides have killed at least 1247 people this year, which is comparable to the official death toll of 1343 people during last year's flood season. They have also destroyed at least 15 million hectares of farmland and 1.17 million homes and caused an estimated USD 16.8 billion in direct economic losses (Xinhua).

Asia - Cambodia,Laos,Thailand,Vietnam  Heavy monsoonal rainfall in Cambodia, Thailand and Laos has caused flooding along the Mekong River (Reference Map). While monsoon rains typically reach their peak during September, heavy rainfall during July was reportedly responsible for starting the flooding (July 2005 Precipitation Percentiles Map). A state of emergency was declared in southern Cambodia in early September as the Mekong threatened the capital city of Phnom Penh. As of 8 September, 51 deaths had been reported and nearly 500,000 people were affected, mostly in Cambodia and Laos. Later in the month, as many as 100,000 people were evacuated in the southern Vietnamese provinces of An Giang, Dong Thap and Long An, as the flood waters moved into the Mekong Delta. According to UN officials, the flooding was the worst that the region had seen in 70 years (BBC, BBC, BBC).

Asia - India,Nepal,Pakistan  Heavy rainfall was blamed for flooding and mudslides in India, southern Pakistan and western Nepal during September (September 2005 WASP Index Map). In central India, flooding during the last half of the month killed 89 people and affected another 550,000 people in thousands of villages in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Orissa, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka. In Andhra Pradesh alone, 77,000 homes and more than 111,000 hectares of crops were destroyed. Flooding along tributaries of the Ganges in western Nepal and northern India caused as many as 74 deaths. The Nepalian districts of Baitadi, Dadeldhura, Darchula and Kanchanpur, and the Indian states of Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal and Himachal Pradesh were among those affected by that bout of flooding and slides. Another 15 lives were lost in the western state of Gujarat in flooding that caused the evacuation of 29 villages. Lastly, in Pakistan, twelve deaths were reported in and near Karachi when more than 3000 homes along the Lyari and Malir Rivers were flooded (IRIN, ReliefWeb Map, OCHA, DFO, AFP, AFP).

The latest IRI seasonal precipitation forecast indicates a slightly-enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation in southern India during the November 2005-January 2006 season.

Europe - Europe: Central,Europe: East  Six deaths were reported in Romania after the latest round of heavy rainfall and flooding that affected southeastern Romania and neighboring areas of Bulgaria in mid-September (Sep 2005 Precipitation Percentile Map). There have been over 70 deaths in Romania this year attributed to the flooding, characterized as the "worst in 30 years" (AFP). According to the Romanian interior ministry, about 10,000 homes had been damaged. Earlier reports indicated that houses in 17 of the 41 administrative districts in Romania had been flooded, and hundreds of people had been evacuated from their homes. Several districts of the capital city of Bucharest were flooded as well (DPA, AFP).

Consistently above-normal precipitation during July and August (Jul-Sep 2005 WASP Index Map) also delayed the harvest and reduced the quality of winter wheat crops in central and eastern Europe, particularly in Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia & Montenegro, Croatia, and Bosnia & Herzegovina (Reference Map), according to the USDA. The harvest was also delayed in Germany, Hungary, and Austria. Although the harvest of maize and sunflower crops in southeastern Europe will also be delayed, the size of the harvest is expected to be large, due in part to the plentiful summer rainfall. Currently, the maize crop in Hungary is estimated by USDA to reach 8.5 million tons, which would be a new record.

Africa - Africa,Africa: West  Heavy rainfall has contributed to the spread of cholera across much of West Africa, according to the World Health Organization. Statistics available in late September indicate that cases have increased by nearly 40 percent since last month, with at least 43,638 cases and 759 deaths being reported. Portions of Mauritania and Liberia have emerged as new concentrated areas of the disease in recent weeks, although Guinea-Bissau has continued to comprise the largest percentage of the cases, and Niger has exhibited the highest mortality rate (10.1 percent). Benin, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, Niger and Senegal are also still affected by the epidemic. Recent flooding in Senegal has exacerbated the situation there. For example, the number of cases per day reported in a Dakar hospital since the flooding (45 cases/day) is nine times that of the rate before the flooding (5 cases/day) (September 2005 CID, IRIN, AP/Yahoo, Reuters, IRIN).

The latest IRI seasonal precipitation forecast indicates a slightly-enhanced probability of above-normal precipitation during the November 2005-January 2006 season in sections of Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d'Ivoire, and Ghana.

Africa - Senegal  Days of heavy rain, from mid-August through early September (Dakar Rainfall Time Series from CPC), caused flooding in Dakar, Senegal, and triggered a sharp increase in the number of local cholera cases in the midst of an outbreak that continues to affect several countries in West Africa (see the West Africa summary in this issue). Characterized as the "heaviest rains seen in two decades" in Dakar (IRIN, DFO), the flooding that resulted initially displaced approximately 5,600 people, most of whom live in impoverished areas in Dakar's outer suburbs which lack adequate sewers and drainage. Later, the Senegalese government declared an emergency and evacuated about 60,000 people to schools and other shelters (IRIN). The start of classes for the year was delayed at some schools due to the evacuations (IRIN).

According to the Senegalese ministry of health, the flooding in Dakar resulted in a rapid upsurge in the number of cholera cases, specifically 1031 cases and 25 deaths during 5-11 September and 1110 cases and 21 deaths during the following week (IRIN).

Asia - China  In spite of the precipitation brought to southern China by typhoon Damrey in September and flooding rains in June (June 2005 1-Month WASP Index), precipitation totals during the rest of the summer rainy season (Jun-Sep 2005 3-Month WASP Index) were not sufficient to avoid water shortages in Guangdong Province and the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. According to the state media outlet, Xinhua, over 2 million people in Guangxi Zhuang were facing acute drinking water shortages. About 625,000 hectares of crops had also been affected by the dry weather, and 1.4 million domestic animals were short of water. The regional capital of Guilin was experiencing a shortage of drinking water, and local reservoirs were holding less than half the water they held at the same time last year, which was also very dry (Xinhua). In Guangdong Province, the dry conditions were allowing for salt water tides to flow up the Pearl River much earlier than usual. The city of Zhongshan experienced its earliest salt tide on record. Water levels in the Xijiang River have reportedly been reduced by almost 53 percent from last year (China Daily).

South America - Bolivia,Brazil,Peru  All of the cities and towns in the Brazilian state of Amazonas have been declared disaster areas due to what is being called the worst drought in over 30 years. While the Amazon normally rises and falls in coincidence with seasonal precipitation, rainfall during recent months has been below-normal, which allowed rivers to drop to record low levels (June-August 2005 3-Month WASP Map). According to officials, precipitation was 33 percent below normal in June and August, and 65 percent below normal in July. The levels of the Madeira and Solimoes Rivers, two of the Amazon's major tributaries, recently dropped to record and 38-year lows, respectively. Many villages in the Amazonian region are not accessible via roads and rely on rivers for transportation. The low water levels, therefore, are causing numerous problems for local populations by limiting their access to food, medicine and other supplies. Approximately 32,000 families have been stranded in the state of Amazonas. The Brazilian Air Force is delivering 15 tons of supplies to areas near the Colombian border, and nine tons of water purifier have been sent by the Health Ministry to Manaus, the capital of Amazonas. The drought has also been blamed for reducing the availability of fish, which is a food staple for people living in the region. Access to drinking water is becoming a problem in many areas, and wells are being dug in an attempt to address the problem (AFP, AP/CNN, AP/CNN).

Portions of the Amazon Basin in Peru and Bolivia are experiencing negative impacts from the drought as well. Fires in Bolivia burned 150,000 hectares and killed 4 children, and long delays in food delivery have been reported in Iquitos, Peru, where the Amazon reached record low levels (AFP, BBC). Water levels across the basin are expected to rise in the coming months as the region comes out of its dry season. The latest IRI seasonal forecast indicates a slightly-enhanced likelihood of above-normal precipitation during the upcoming November-January season.

Africa - Cameroon  Dry conditions, particularly during the latter portions of the 2004 rainy season (Aug-Oct 2004 WASP Index Map), which was poor throughout West Africa, contributed to poor crop production and food shortages for about 250,000 people in northern Cameroon (Reference Map). According to WFP, food production in northern Cameroon in 2004 fell by about 200,000 metric tons compared to the previous year, leaving residents in the region with a deficit of food for the year. WFP elected to conduct a feeding operation for one month to provide food aid to people in affected communities in the Far North province at a cost of about USD 2 million. As of 22 September, the operation had received less than half of its necessary funding (IRIN, WFP, Reuters).

Africa - Sudan  In sections of southern Sudan (Reference Map) malnutrition rates during the June-September hunger season were above normal levels. Malnutrition rates in Northern Bahr El Ghazal and Western Bahr El Ghazal provinces continued to rise during August, possibly as the result of increasing cases of malaria and diarrhea associated with seasonal rains, according to a WFP spokesperson (IRIN). Additionally, below-normal rainfall in June, July, and part of August appears to be affecting the sorghum crop, and may result in a delayed or reduced harvest in the coming months (June-August 2005 WASP Index). Some households have already begun consuming early-maturing or green crops in areas of southern Sudan (FEWS Net, August 2005 CID).

Africa - Africa: Southern  Drought during the 2004/05 rainy season has caused serious shortfalls in the cereal harvest in Zimbabwe, Malawi, Angola, and Mozambique, and somewhat less severe shortages elsewhere in southern Africa (Reference Map; see March 2005 CID, May 2005 CID, and July 2005 CID). Although a bumper maize harvest in South Africa this year resulted in greater production than last year for the region as a whole, cereal prices in individual countries have increased quickly because imports have not kept up with demand (FEWS Net). WFP plans to spend a total of approximately USD 400 million to feed an expected 9.2 million of the most vulnerable people in southern Africa until the next harvest. Although much of this total has been funded, WFP still needs about USD 185 million to help feed people in Lesotho, Swaziland, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe (Reuters, WFP).

Reports indicate an increasingly serious situation in Malawi. Up to 5 million people in the country are threatened with hunger because of the "worst harvest in a decade" caused by drought and a lack of agricultural inputs, including fertilizer and seeds during the 2004/05 rainy season (IRIN, IRIN, AP). Although the drought and food shortages have been worst in southern Malawi, malnutrition rates have begun to increase throughout the country, according to UNICEF (IRIN). Admissions to nutritional rehabilitation units (NRUs) in Malawi increased 11 percent between September 2004 and September 2005 (FEWS Net).

The latest IRI seasonal precipitation forecast suggests a slightly-enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation for the November 2005-January 2006 season (the first half of the rainy season) in northern South Africa, Swaziland, Lesotho, and southern Botswana.