Hazards/Threats

Asia - Asia: South  In its summary of the 2003 southwest monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that for the country as a whole, monsoon rainfall was 102 percent of the long-term average, and the monsoon rains were well-distributed throughout the season and the country. 205 of the 267 meteorological districts affected by moderate to severe drought in 2002 received good rainfall in the 2003 monsoon season, including the states of Gujarat, Orissa, and most of Rajasthan. Drought conditions continue, however, in the southwestern states of Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Kerala.

Beginning in late August, monsoon low pressure systems brought rainfall and flooding to several northern and eastern Indian states, particularly Orissa, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh. About 3.25 million people were affected, 58 people killed, and over 100,000 houses damaged by the flooding in 23 districts in Orissa. In Bihar, the Ganges reached its highest level since 1975, and as many as 4.55 million people were affected and 142 people killed. There were 34 deaths, 20,000 homes destroyed, and about 616,000 people evacuated in Uttar Pradesh (IFRC, IFRC). In northwestern Bangladesh, the Ganges flooded quickly as a result of above-normal rainfall upstream in India. As many as 11 people were killed and over 200,000 people were forced from their homes (DPA, Reuters).

Asia - China  Heavy rainfall since August (Sept 2003 precipitation percentile map) has caused flooding in the Yellow River (Huang He) basin of China. Many flood reports came from locations along the Wei River, a tributary of the Huang He. Xinhua reported that over 100,000 villagers in Henan and Shandong provinces were affected, and US$1.2 million from the ministries of finance and civil affairs were spent on flood relief in two counties in these provinces. 300,000 people in Weinan city in Shaanxi province were relocated due to flooding (AFP). A report in mid-September indicated that flooding in the province of Shaanxi had caused 64 deaths and left 59 people missing. Over 200,000 people along the Wei River were homeless after the worst flooding since 1981. In this instance 130,000 hectares of crops were destroyed and estimated losses came to US$717 million (DPA). Approximately 5000 protesters attacked the civil affairs office in Hua County in Shaanxi on September 4th and 5th and took relief supplies after the flooding along the Wei River. The flooding affected an estimated 4.9 million people, and 46,000 homes were destroyed (AFP). The Chinese government reported that 676 people had been killed by flooding in China in the first seven months of 2003 (Reuters, CRED flood statistics for China)

The latest IRI seasonal precipitation forecast for the November-January 2004 season indicates a slightly increased probability of above-normal rainfall in areas of eastern China, primarily south of the Yellow River basin.

Central America - Mexico  One of the heaviest rainy seasons in several years brought widespread flooding to central Mexico. The state of Queretaro was hardest hit by the damage as 15,000 people were affected. Fields of staple crops were badly affected and 12,000 houses were damaged in Jalisco. (IFRC)

Africa - Ethiopia  During the last few months, approximately 100,000 cases of malaria have been reported in the drought-stricken Southern Nations, Nationalities and People's Region of Ethiopia. Anti-malarial medicines have recently arrived, in addition to the distribution of tens of thousands of insecticide-treated mosquito nets, to protect the 40 million people at risk of a looming malaria epidemic in the country. (IRIN)

Asia - India  The stronger-than-normal monsoon rains have provided ample breeding grounds for mosquito vectors throughout many regions of India. The northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh has reported at least 63 deaths, mostly children, from mosquito-borne Japanese encephalitis; at least 425 cases have been registered. Dengue outbreaks have left 80 dead and 4720 infected in India during the last 3 months, particularly in the states of Gujarat, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh and New Delhi. The southern state of Kerala has been hardest hit with 3155 cases and 63 deaths. (ProMED, ProMED)

Africa - Africa: West  Good grain and cotton harvests are expected in most countries in the West African Sahel after a good 2003 rainy season. According to CILSS (Comité Permanent Inter-Etats de Lutte Contre la Sécheresse dans le Sahel), grain production will be between 10.25 and 13.7 million tons for the 2003/04 agricultural year (as compared to 11.5 million tons last year) if weather and pest conditions remain favorable. The harvest is expected to continue through November, and CILSS is urging member countries to keep grain from swamping markets to avoid a rapid fall in producer prices (IRIN). The USDA is expecting a very good cotton harvest in West Africa as well due to above-average rainfall. The latest forecast predicts production of 4.32 million bales, which is up nine percent from last year and above the five-year average of 3.92 million bales. Near-record production is predicted for Mali, Burkina Faso, and Benin, but political instability and below-average rainfall in northern Cote d'Ivoire are being blamed for less-than-average cotton production there.

The same rains that are responsible for the bumper harvest also brought flooding to other areas in West Africa. The areas surrounding the Kaduna River in Nigeria were among the worst affected. Estimates of the number of people affected by the worst floods to ever hit the town of Kaduna vary, though most indicate that between 80,000 and 100,000 people were displaced when the Kaduna River burst its banks. Approximately 30,000 homes were destroyed in Kaduna and the town also faced serious drinking water shortages when the water board stopped pumping water to households to hinder the spread of cholera. Thirty-five deaths had been reported as of early October in a suspected cholera outbreak in northwest Nigeria. Relief materials have been sent to the affected areas by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA). Flooding was also seen in parts of Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, and Benin in early September. (IRIN, FEWSNET, AFP, DPA, IFRC, FEWSNET)

As it tracked northward and back southward again, the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and its associated rainfall remained north of its climatological position in West Africa throughout the rainy season, which helped to bring above-normal rainfall to much of the Sahel. The rainy season normally tapers off in October as the region enters its very long dry season. Further south, along the Guinea Coast, Cote d'Ivoire experienced a longer- and drier-than-normal "little dry season" at the height of the boreal summer.

Africa - Tanzania  The ongoing drought and resulting poor harvest in Tanzania are continuing to affect agriculture and food security. (Sep2003 CID Report) According to the Presbyterian World Service & Development agency, 85 percent of the maize, groundnut, and sorghum crops in the the northern district of Shinyanga have been affected by drought. It has been estimated that 1.1 million people will require over 10,000 metric tons of subsidized food aid in October alone and nearly 2 million people in 47 districts will be vulnerable to food shortages between October and March 2004. The government released over 7000 metric tons of maize in early October from its Strategic Grain Reserve to people in 16 districts suffering from severe food shortages. Relief agencies will also be distributing food and seeds to familes in the affected regions. People have begun to limit their meals to one per day and are keeping their children from attending school in order to earn extra money in an effort to cope with the food shortages. Livestock production is also expected to be affected as the drought diminishes water sources and pastures. (IRIN, IRIN, IRIN)

Asia - Timor-Leste  Prolonged dry conditions and a delayed onset of rains earlier this year are affecting agriculture and food security in Timor-Leste. These factors played a significant role in a 30 percent drop in corn production this year and an overall food production shortfall of 21 percent. According to Radio Australia, 1 in 6 people are facing a food crisis. Malnutrition has become widespread as 43 percent of children under 5 are underweight and 40 percent of the population is consuming less than the minimum amount of calories required per day. Hunger season survival tactics, such as eating wild foods and selling cattle, have begun earlier than their usual November start. In particular, many families are without seeds for the next planting because they were needed as a food source. The highland areas in the north have felt the worst effects because there is very little other source of food besides subsistence farming in those areas. The WFP is giving aid to nearly 25,000 families during the pre-harvest hunger season (November-March) and the FAO is giving 12,000 families seeds, fertilizer, and tools for the next harvest. (UNWire, WFP, AusAID, Government of Timor-Leste)

Based on climatology, the dry season in Timor-Leste typically ends in November. However, it may not see the relief it needs as the latest IRI seasonal precipitation forecast for the November-January 2004 season indicates an enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation in Timor-Leste and much of Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

Australia and New Zealand - Australia  The 2002-2003 drought in Australia caused farm incomes to decline by half to 7.2 billion Australian dollars (US$ 4.9 billion) during 1 July 2002 to 30 June 2003, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE). Agricultural production declined by 28.5 percent, causing a cut of 1 percent (equivalent to 7 billion Australian dollars) in GDP. The effects of the drought will likely continue to be felt during the coming year, as total farm exports are expected to decline by about 1 billion Australian dollars for the year ending in June 2004. Recovery for livestock producers is expected to take some time as they will need to hold back livestock for breeding to rebuild their herds. Agriculture accounts for about 3 percent of Australian GDP and 17 percent of the country's exports. The Australian government has made 1 billion Australian dollars available for farm assistance, and 235 million dollars worth of relief has been used thus far. (New York Times, ABARE, ABARE)

Southern portions of Western Australia received slightly above-normal rainfall in September, but precipitation for the month was below-average in the east (Sep 2003 precipitation percentile map). The latest IRI seasonal forecast indicates a slightly elevated probability of below-normal rainfall along the east coast and portions of the Northern Territory and Western Australia in the November-January 2004 season.